人口受教育程度对居民消费的影响研究--基于动态面板分位数回归法

本文采用1996～2015年的31个省市自治区宏观数据,使用动态面板分位数回归方法研究人口受教育程度和居民消费的数量关系。研究结果表明,人口受教育程度对消费有着较为显著的影响,且人口受教育程度对中等消费支出水平的影响略大于高、低消费支出水平的影响,这说明中等消费水平的居民消费受到人口受教育程度的影响更加敏感和有弹性。另外,模型中其他各解释变量系数在各分位数上的差异不大,说明这些影响因素对于不同消费支出水平的消费影响没有太明显差异。     

Three layers of history in recurrent social movements: the case of food reform

Using the understudied genre of food reform movements for illustration, we advocate greater attention to recurrent social movements. Analysis of these movements calls for combining three levels of historical analysis. One links the incidence and character of mobilization to long-term, large-scale historical changes; the second shows how periods of activism are also animated and shaped by specific historical contexts; and the third tracks legacies from earlier to later periods, thus both tracing additional causal influences and connecting separate cases into coherent sequences. The social movements literature includes excellent examples of each type of historical account. Combining types is much less common. Doing so, we contend, offers methodological advantages for scholars comparing and sequencing mobilization around similar problems in different historical periods. We develop the argument from three eras of food protest: Grahamites in the 1830s and early 1840s, dietary reformers and food safety campaigners of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, and organic advocates who gained popular support beginning in the late 1960s.     

Interacting mechanisms of time inconsistency

We interact two prominent behavioral mechanisms of time inconsistency that have been used to study inadequate saving: hyperbolic discounting and short-term planning. Hyperbolic discounting is a conventional way to model impulsive decision making, and short planning horizons have been used to represent myopia. One might expect that interacting both mechanisms within the same model would compound the inadequacy of saving. However, our key finding takes the form of a paradox: hyperbolic discounting does not affect consumption and saving allocations if the planning horizon is short and fixed, although it will affect allocations if the planning horizon is equal to the remaining life span. We demonstrate analytically that this finding is robust to the shape of the disposable income path, to the coarseness of the time grid, and to alternative forms of the period utility function.     

Desperately seeking social approval: Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen and the moral limits of capitalist culture

Adam Smith and Thorstein Veblen shared much in matters of economic ontology. Both dismissed the very notion of an autonomous economic self and instead investigated the processes through which self and other are mutually constituted under changing cultural traditions of individual aspiration. Their strikingly similar critiques of status-oriented consumption and concern for the moral basis of the market economy are established in this manner. However, the political implications of their analyses point in different directions, with Veblen being the more radical. The Smithian individual can always use spectatorial insights to assert through genuinely praiseworthy behaviour personal moral distance from social norms of status-oriented consumption. The Veblenian individual, by contrast, has no such capacity for elevating abstract moral principles above socially-situated conduct, as mind and environment co-evolve in line with changing material circumstances of life. For Veblen, the rise of status-oriented consumption itself acted as a form of moral self-education that more deeply entrenched the social norms of ownership out of which it arose, thus the impossibility of an autonomous economic self was matched by the impossibility of an autonomous moral self. To his way of thinking, moral degradation in conspicuous consumption was irredeemably inscribed into the whole cultural structure of capitalism.     

扩大上海文化消费研究

扩大上海文化消费包括文化消费规模的扩大和文化消费结构的优化两方面,这对上海转变经济发展方式、扩大内需、提高人口素质、社会稳定和增强城市软实力均具有重要意义。扩大上海文化消费,关键在于树立都市文化消费品牌,发展文化消费价值链或集聚带,提升文化内涵和形象;重点是抓好"三网融合",大力推进信息服务的基础设施和大众文化基础设施建设;不断创新机制,培育原创文化,吸引文化人才,建立文化高地;推进文化产业与文化事业的协同发展。     

创新、升级与培育——2013上海文化消费报告

在全国文化消费方兴未艾的背景下,上海文化消费尤为繁盛。在载体方面,创新与多元化趋势增强。由政府主导的基础型公共文化服务体系进一步完善,消费产品更加多样化,但仍存在公共文化机构数量不足、消费理念薄弱等问题。电影节、书展、动漫节、艺术节、艺博会五大节庆类公共文化平台在消费产品多元化、亲民化、国际化方面的趋势更加明显。新媒体作为市场主导的自主型文化消费载体,发展迅猛。网购、APP、微博经济、网络文学消费稳步增长。在客体方面,假日旅游和出境游消费火爆,私人影院等体验式消费备受青睐,演艺、奢侈品消费呈爆发式增长。在主体方面,上海已形成高、中、低3类消费主体并存的文化消费格局,阶层化倾向日趋明显。     

AD HOC MODEL BUILDING USING TIME-VARYING PARAMETER MODELS*

Decision support for managers and policy makers, such as required in planning and evaluation efforts, often requires ad hoc behavioral modeling to account for context-specific phenomena and to handle data limitations. This paper introduces a systematic approach useful for meeting these requirements in which time-varying parameter estimation plays an important role. A case study evaluating the impacts of public policy actions on residential natural gas conservation illustrates the approach.     

长江流域的消费函数:基于非稳定面板数据的分析

运用面板单位根与面板协整方法研究长江流域的消费函数。基于10省(市)1981-2003年的宏观消费与收入的面板数据,研究发现消费与收入存在显著的面板协整关系,边际消费倾向也非常稳定,稳定在0.7-0.85之间。为此,应采取鼓励消费的政策,从而促进经济长期增长。     

论我国消费信贷业务存在的问题及其对策

改革开放以来,我国的消费信贷活动出现了一般消费信贷明显减少,特种消费信贷发展较快和消费心理、消费习惯发生了变化等三个新的特点。面对消费信贷活动迅速发展的新特点,银行开展的消费信贷业务却面临着业务量所占的比重小、品种少,对开展消费信贷业务的作用认识不足和缺少一套完善的消费信贷制度等问题,这些问题的存在既不能满足消费信贷活动迅速发展的需要,也束缚着我国和西方发达国家在消费信贷业务方面的竞争。为了克服这些问题,在竞争中处于有利地位,必须提高认识,突出重点,完善机制,努力提高人     

Commodity price stabilization models: A review and appraisal

This paper is designed to bring into focus the numerous modeling attempts to analyze commodity price stabilization that have recently appeared. The studies examined begin with the Waugh-Oi-Massell framework and advance to econometric commodity modeling. Such a critique is considered necessary: None of the studies examined has overcome the myriad of problems that analysts have pointed out as essential for assessing the welfare outcomes of price stabilization schemes. As a consequence, stabilization analyses for similar commodities have produced conflicting results regarding predicted welfare outcome. The present appraisal attempts to provide a unity of direction to this work by (1) comparing recieved studies of a theoretical, empirical, and econometric modeling nature, and (2) suggesting possibilities for improving modeling analyses.