加强我国艾滋病防治督导与评估能力建设的思考

随着艾滋病防治督导与评估重要性的凸显,我国也积极努力地尝试建立国家综合协调的艾滋病防治督导与评估体系。能力建设是督导与评估工作的基础和前提,本文围绕督导与评估能力建设的概念和目标,提出加强能力建设的建议和方向。     

A KNOWLEDGE-BASED DSS FOR MANAGERIAL PROBLEM DIAGNOSIS

A knowledge-based system supporting managerial problem diagnosis is described. The system provides the capability to monitor values of selected variables for problem situations. When problems are located, a list of problem symptoms is delivered to a problem processor for structuring and diagnosis. Problem structuring is based on a combination of concepts from expert systems and structural modeling. User assertions about cause-effect relationships between pairs of variables are maintained in a semantic network. Problem diagnosis uses the relationships in the semantic network to construct causation trees, the branches of which represent potential explanations of the problem symptoms. Mathematical models are constructed based on causation-tree branches, and values from the data base are used to test whether the model confirms the diagnosis. If so, the source of the problem has been located and it is then up to the user to resolve the problem. If the model fails to explain the problem, the model apparently is deficient and the user may perform “what if…” type scenarios in attempts to improve the model and search for problem causes. Realistic applications in the accounting and health care areas are discussed.     

ON MODELING ADVERTISING PULSING DECISIONS

Based on empirical findings in the literature, sales response to advertising pulsing policy (APP) is modeled mathematically. The implications for APP are discussed. This policy is compared with an alternative policy of uniform expenditures (UAP), a commonly used strategy. The results of the research indicate that substantial savings in advertising budget or an increase in sales revenues may be achieved for a firm using APP.     

STOCHASTIC COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS WITH A LINEAR DEMAND FUNCTION

In this paper we incorporate a linear demand function to model the price-volume causal relationship into stochastic cost-volume-profit (CVP) analysis. We assume that the objective function is to maximize expected profit; other objective functions are also discussed and compared. A linear stochastic model follows from which probabilistic statements can be easily obtained if the random variables are assumed to be multivariate normal. The basic framework is shown to be a special case of project value maximization where project value is the cash flow of the project discounted for time and risk according to the capital asset pricing model. Moreover, an intertemporal extension that considers inventory is developed. In summary, a new approach to stochastic CVP analysis that incorporates the management decision process in an uncertain environment is developed.     

略论抗战后的粤港贸易关系(1945.9-1949.10)

粤港关系历来唇齿相依.抗日战争结束后,两地贸易曾一度恢复并得到发展.但随着全面内战的爆发,国统区社会经济分崩离析,官僚资本垄断广东对外贸易,粤港间走私活动猖獗达于失控,民间正常商贸不断萎缩而陷入困境.这一切,预示着近代粤港贸易史行将终结.     

On a control chart for the Gini index with simulations

In this work we suggest the use of the Gini index on control charts. The asymptotic properties of Gini index are presented and the control charts based on appropriate confidence intervals are constructed. The suitability of the proposed charts are investigated by means of extensive simulations.     

Graphical Presentations of Data Envelopment Analyses: Management Implications from Parallel Axes Representations*

The conversion of multivariate data analysis into information that managers can readily use in their decision making has always been a challenging task. In this paper we provide a parallel axis representation of multivariate data and demonstrate how this representation may be used as a tool for implementing the results of data envelopment analysis. We use an analysis of the efficiency of electricity generating plants to illustrate the technique.     

Solution Procedures for the Lot-Streaming Problem

Lot streaming is the process of splitting a job into sublots so its operations can be overlapped and its progress accelerated. We present a computationally efficient procedure for solving the m-machine, two-sublot problem, and we discuss the bottleneck insights that emerge from the analysis. We also examine heuristic approaches for more than two sublots and discuss computational results for these procedures.     

Bringing Japanese Continuous Improvement Approaches to U.S. Manufacturing: The Roles of Process Orientation and Communications*

Continuous improvement (CI) has played a key role in Japan's quality management. U.S. companies have begun to adopt CI in recent years. This paper studies the implementation of CI in seven U.S. manufacturing companies. We view values as the core concept of culture that impacts CI effectiveness. Using both qualitative and quantitative data with a sample of seven companies, we observe empirically a relationship between process-oriented values and CI effectiveness. We also find that communications involving workers is strongly associated with CI effectiveness. Finally, we find an association between process orientation and communication frequency, and argue that communications act as an intervening variable between process orientation and effectiveness.     

2012年宏观调控要处理好四大关系

随着经济增长的不确定性和风险进一步增加,2012年,中国继续保持经济持续平稳增长的关键,是在宏观调控上要处理好国际经济与国内经济的关系,“松银根”与“抑通胀”的关系,“抑通胀”、“惠民生”与“控成本”的关系,“稳增长”与“调结构”的关系。要处理好上述四大关系问题,关键是要坚持科学发展观,更加深入地推进转变经济发展方式。其中非常关键的举措,就是要在“稳增长”的前提下,适度调低经济增长率指标,加大结构调整的力度。