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151.
胡剑波 《湖南科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2001,3(2):63-65
语用推理能力关系到话语理解的正误,是维系会话的关键。对英语专业学生的语用推理能力进行了调查。调查结果反映了外语教学中存在的一些问题,据此提出了一些建议。 相似文献
152.
Kevin K. Dobbin Thomas A. Louis 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(4):837-849
Summary. Consider a clinical trial in which participants are randomized to a single-dose treatment or a placebo control and assume that the adherence level is accurately recorded. If the treatment is effective, then good adherers in the treatment group should do better than poor ad- herers because they received more drug; the treatment group data follow a dose–response curve. But, good adherers to the placebo often do better than poor adherers, so the observed adherence–response in the treatment group cannot be completely attributed to the treatment. Efron and Feldman proposed an adjustment to the observed adherence–response in the treatment group by using the adherence–response in the control group. It relies on a percentile invariance assumption under which each participant's adherence percentile within their assigned treatment group does not depend on the assigned group (active drug or placebo). The Efron and Feldman approach is valid under percentile invariance, but not necessarily under departures from it. We propose an analysis based on a generalization of percentile invariance that allows adherence percentiles to be stochastically permuted across treatment groups, using a broad class of stochastic permutation models. We show that approximate maximum likelihood estimates of the underlying dose–response curve perform well when the stochastic permutation process is correctly specified and are quite robust to model misspecification. 相似文献
153.
We present full Bayesian analysis of finite mixtures of multivariate normals with unknown number of components. We adopt reversible
jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and we construct, in a manner similar to that of Richardson and Green (1997), split and merge
moves that produce good mixing of the Markov chains. The split moves are constructed on the space of eigenvectors and eigenvalues
of the current covariance matrix so that the proposed covariance matrices are positive definite. Our proposed methodology
has applications in classification and discrimination as well as heterogeneity modelling. We test our algorithm with real
and simulated data. 相似文献
154.
Robin Insley Lucia Mok Tim Swartz 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2004,46(2):219-232
This paper looks at various issues that are of interest to the sports gambler. First, an expression is obtained for the distribution of the final bankroll using fixed wagers with a specified initial bankroll. Second, fixed percentage wagers are considered where the Kelly method is extended to the case of simultaneous bets placed at various odds; a computational algorithm is presented to obtain the Kelly fractions. Finally, the paper considers the problem of determining whether a gambling system is profitable based on the historical results of bets placed at various odds. 相似文献
155.
朱倩倩 《宁波大学学报(人文科学版)》2006,19(2):42-46
分别使用情态动词、副词、形容词、名词等方式,推测了行为发生或状态存在的外显形式;同时还运用不定代词、动词、从属连词、-ing形式等方式间接而含蓄地表示和推测了行为或状态存在的可能性。 相似文献
156.
We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002). 相似文献
157.
It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not guarantee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indication that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this paper, we question this interpretation. Our analysis shows that neither data mining nor dynamic misspecification of the model under the null nor unmodelled structural change under the null are plausible explanations of the observed tendency of in-sample tests to reject the no-predictability null more often than out-of-sample tests. We provide an alternative explanation based on the higher power of in-sample tests of predictability in many situations. We conclude that results of in-sample tests of predictability will typically be more credible than results of out-of-sample tests. 相似文献
158.
Weijing Wang 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):257-273
Summary. Many biomedical studies involve the analysis of multiple events. The dependence between the times to these end points is often of scientific interest. We investigate a situation when one end point is subject to censoring by the other. The model assumptions of Day and co-workers and Fine and co-workers are extended to more general structures where the level of association may vary with time. Two types of estimating function are proposed. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are derived. Their finite sample performance is studied via simulations. The inference procedures are applied to two real data sets for illustration. 相似文献
159.
Reference analysis, introduced by Bernardo (J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 41 (1979) 113) and further developed by Berger and Bernardo (On the development of reference priors (with discussion). In: J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid, A.F.M. Smith (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics, Vol. 4, Clarendon Press, Oxford, pp. 35–60), has proved to be one of the most successful general methods to derive noninformative prior distributions. In practice, however, reference priors are typically difficult to obtain. In this paper we show how to find reference priors for a wide class of exponential family likelihoods. 相似文献
160.
We propose a general procedure for constructing nonparametric priors for Bayesian inference. Under very general assumptions,
the proposed prior selects absolutely continuous distribution functions, hence it can be useful with continuous data. We use
the notion ofFeller-type approximation, with a random scheme based on the natural exponential family, in order to construct a large class of distribution functions.
We show how one can assign a probability to such a class and discuss the main properties of the proposed prior, namedFeller prior. Feller priors are related to mixture models with unknown number of components or, more generally, to mixtures with unknown
weight distribution. Two illustrations relative to the estimation of a density and of a mixing distribution are carried out
with respect to well known data-set in order to evaluate the performance of our procedure. Computations are performed using
a modified version of an MCMC algorithm which is briefly described. 相似文献