Fitting disposition codes to mobile phone surveys: experiences from studies in Finland, Slovenia and the USA

Summary.  Using mobile phones to conduct survey interviews has gathered momentum recently. However, using mobile telephones in surveys poses many new challenges. One important challenge involves properly classifying final case dispositions to understand response rates and non-response error and to implement responsive survey designs. Both purposes demand accurate assessments of the outcomes of individual call attempts. By looking at actual practices across three countries, we suggest how the disposition codes of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, which have been developed for telephone surveys, can be modified to fit mobile phones. Adding an international dimension to these standard definitions will improve survey methods by making systematic comparisons across different contexts possible.     

《换地权益书》在土地储备中的应用浅析

针对我国土地储备中资金筹措机制方面存在的问题，结合香港、海南应用《换地权益书》的实践和经验，探讨其在土地储备中的应用。     

拟像、拟真与内爆的布尔乔亚世界——鲍德里亚《象征交换与死亡》研究

拟像与拟真,为鲍德里亚用以描述当代资本主义最新存在形态的范畴,拟像分别指认资本主义发展的三个历史形式:对符号和自然的仿造、无原型的系列生产和模式生成存在的拟真.拟真的世界是资本逻辑制作出来的超级真实的王国,其中,代码的统治创造了前所未有的隐性暴力.     

Flexible Threshold Models for Modelling Interest Rate Volatility

This paper focuses on interest rate models with regime switching and extends previous nonlinear threshold models by relaxing the assumption of a fixed number of regimes. Instead we suggest automatic model determination through Bayesian inference via the reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Moreover, we allow the thresholds in the volatility to be driven not only by the interest rate but also by other economic factors. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to interest rates and other economic factors of the American economy.     

Between dollarization and exchange rate volatility: Nigeria's portfolio diversification option

This paper investigates the relationship between nominal exchange rate volatility and dollarization in Nigeria by applying Granger causality test for the period 1986 (1)–2003 (4). Previous theoretical and empirical studies on this issue provided conflicting results. The empirical results of Granger causality test support a bi-directional relationship. However, causality from dollarization to exchange rate volatility appears stronger and dominates. This suggests that policies that aim to reduce exchange rate volatility in Nigeria must include measures that specifically address the issue of dollarization. An important factor in this case is the supply of sufficient domestic currency assets that would permit portfolio diversification and capable of dousing negative expectations about future inflation in the country.     

Residential Air Exchange Rates in the United States: Empirical and Estimated Parametric Distributions by Season and Climatic Region

The purpose of this paper is to undertake a statistical analysis to specify empirical distributions and to estimate univariate parametric probability distributions for air exchange rates for residential structures in the United States. To achieve this goal, we used data compiled by the Brookhaven National Laboratory using a method known as the perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT) technique. While these data are not fully representative of all areas of the country or all housing types, they are judged to be by far the best available. The analysis is characterized by four key points: the use of data for 2,844 households; a four-region breakdown based on heating degree days, a best available measure of climatic factors affecting air exchange rates; estimation of lognormal distributions as well as provision of empirical (frequency) distributions; and provision of these distributions for all of the data, for the data segmented by the four regions, for the data segmented by the four seasons, and for the data segmented by a 16 region by season breakdown. Except in a few cases, primarily for small sample sizes, air exchange rates were found to be well fit by lognormal distributions (adjusted R² 0.95). The empirical or lognormal distributions may be used in indoor air models or as input variables for probabilistic human health risk assessments.     

企业新员工工作期望与组织社会化早期的适应:领导—部属交换的调节作用

工作期望是影响新员工组织社会化的重要心理变量。以往相关研究主要集中在期望落差领域,但是期望落差假设的有效性至今仍存在分歧。本研究基于组织社会化理论,采用纵向问卷调查方法,研究了社会化早期(即新员工组织进入后三个月)新员工工作期望与近端适应结果(即角色清晰、任务掌握、组织理解和社会整合)的关系,重点探讨了领导—部属交换(LMX)对期望落差作用的调节效应,以期回答期望落差假设成立条件的问题。结果表明:①在同时考虑期望和经历的情况下,仅新员工实际工作经历与适应结果正相关,期望落差对适应的影响不显著。②LMX调节期望落差与适应的关系——当LMX关系质量低时,期望未实现对适应有破坏作用,与期望落差假设一致;而高质量的LMX会抵消期望未实现对适应的破坏作用。③不同维度LMX的调节作用模式存在差异——贡献维度调节工作责任期望落差与角色清晰的关系,尊敬和情感维度调节工作回报期望落差与组织理解的关系。     

中国情境中的上下级关系构念研究述评——兼论领导——成员交换理论的本土贴切性

作为组织动力学的核心课题,上下级关系研究在关系导向和权威导向的中国文化中具有较强的现实意义,也正日益成为学界的研究热点。目前文献对上下级关系的研究存在构念上的分歧,表现为客位构念领导-成员交换(Leader-Member Exchange, LMX)和主位构念上下级关系(Supervisor-subordinate Guanxi,SSG)的分歧,以及对主位构念SSG的不同界定。在文献梳理和理论分析的基础上,本文提出:(1)中国情境中的上下级关系与LMX所描述的关系在关系形态和交换原则上存在本质差异,故需加强主位构念SSG的研究;(2)现存分歧较大的三种SSG构念各有侧重,有必要建立更具整合性的SSG构念;(3)多维度构念的剖面模型及在此基础上的原型分类适用于建立整合的SSG构念。     

仿射期限结构下贴现债券衍生工具定价研究

利率风险是当代经济生活中的一个越来越重要话题,债券类衍生品作为规避利率风险的主要工具受到人们的青睐.建立了包含通货膨胀、实际利率的动态利牟模型,采用Kalman滤波对模型进行估计的基础上,结合Feynman-Kac 定理和特征函数傅立叶变换的方法,对贴现债券的期权、远期、期货及期货期权等衍生品的价格进行研究并给出详细的数值解.研究的方法和结论对中国经济环境下的投资活动和金融产品定价都具有重要的意义.     

财政政策与货币政策对国民收入的影响分析

 内容提要：财政政策和货币政策同属政府干预宏观经济最重要、使用最频繁的两大工具,可依宏观经济调控要求进行合理搭配。本文在人民币一篮子货币汇率制度框架下,用修正的M-F模型深入分析我国财政与货币政策对国民经济的综合影响。结果显示扩张的财政政策辅以扩张的货币政策是目前较理想的操作方式。用2005年7月至2010年6月的月度数据进行的实证研究结果佐证了上述理论。最后提出相关政策建议。