Drought,Migration and Population Growth in the Sahel: The Case of the Malian Gourma: 1900–1991

This paper explores the development of the population of the Gourma in Northern Mali from the beginning of this century to the present. As part of Northern Sahel, the area has been hard-hit by at least four droughts this century and is among the least developed in Mali. The data used include the available population censuses, colonial records and recent survey research. The droughts of 1973 and 1984 may have increased child mortality, but the most important effects may have been short-term reductions in fertility, as well as increased migration. While approximately 30 per cent of adult men are absent, the overall picture of migration is much more complex than simply one of emigration, as migration into the Gourma and internal redistribution of population also play an important role.     

我国利率市场化改革的现状与建议

利率市场化是各国金融发展的客观要求,是完善金融机构自主经营机制、提高竞争力的必要条件,是加强我国金融间接调控的关键,也是建设社会主义市场经济体制、发挥市场配置资源作用的重要内容。文章通过对利率市场化内涵的阐述,结合我国的具体情况分析了利率市场化的现状,指出了在利率市场化过程中的制约因素。并从确立统一的市场化的基准利率、完善微观基础、稳定宏观经济环境等方面提出了对策。     

The Anticipated Effects of EU Enlargement: Exchange Rate Volatility,Institutions and Conditional Convergence

Improvement of economic policies and institutions and reduced exchange rate volatility are two expected effects arising when candidates develop prerequisites needed to qualify for EU membership. In this paper, we evaluate whether these two effects occurred in the Eastern European accession countries by inspecting exchange rate volatility and the evolution of different indicators of the quality of institutions before and after the start of the negotiation period. We then evaluate the impact of both effects on growth of real per capita GDP. By comparing the effects on accession countries to a group of control countries, including transition non candidates, we find that the prospect of accession has a significant effect on output growth, which starts materializing much before accession and even before the beginning of the negotiations with the EU.

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Inflation,oil prices and exchange rates. The Euro’s dampening effect

This paper aims to analyse the relationship between the euro/dollar exchange rate and oil prices and examine what effect this relationship had on the transmission of oil price fluctuations to headline inflation in the euro area since the currency’s creation. We estimate an augmented Phillips curve including changes in oil price, through which we study the role of the exchange rate in oil price pass-through by using different specifications. The main findings reveal a positive relationship between the euro/dollar exchange rate and oil prices, such that an increase in the price of oil is followed by an appreciation in the euro. We also find that the transmission of oil price fluctuations to headline inflation in the euro area has been partially dampened by this appreciation in the euro/dollar exchange rate. These results do not hold for other economies with internationally relevant currencies, such as Japan and the United Kingdom. These findings have important implications for the implementation of monetary policy in the euro area in the face of oil price shocks.     

我国利率市场化对经济生活影响的实证分析

在我国传统的经济生活中,利率是很稳定的因素,它不是根据市场调节的,所以对经济的影响并不明显。随着市场经济的完善,我国逐步实施稳健的货币政策,并以利率为操作工具对存贷款利息进行了多次调整,其作用程度也随之体现出来。为此中国人民银行提出利率市场化改革的总体思路,针对新形势下对利率的作用规律认识的要求,将中国改革开放以来的有关利率作用的规律进行实证分析。首先,全社会的金融化进程与真实利率之间正相关关系;其次,中国转轨经济时期利率对物价、M2、贷款等经济指标作用的改变;最后,将利率的直接作用与间接作用综合考虑形成对经济总量的影响分析。     

Capital mobility among advanced countries

Mobility of capital has been studied by examining savings–investment correlations, real interest rates differentials, covered and uncovered interest parity, and equity home bias. All these examine the capital mobility question indirectly. This paper directly tests the return/total flow specification of the Mundell–Fleming model. It finds that while portfolio equity and debt flows are, direct investment is not; and in every case, the inclusion of direct investment makes the aggregative-capital variable unresponsive to interest rates. Asset-based exchange rate models may benefit by looking at the composition of cross-border assets, countries can have independent monetary policies with full capital mobility, and macroeconomic policy trilemma for open economies disappears.     

A note on the convergence rates for empirical bayes estimators of parameters in multiple-parameter exponential families

Under suitable conditions upon prior distribution, the convergence rates for empirical Bayes estimators of parameters in multi-parameter exponential families (M-PEF) are obtained. It is shown that the assumptions Tong (1996) imposed on the marginal density can be reduced. The above result can also be extended to more general forms of M-PEF. Finally, some examples which satisfy the conditions of the theorems are given.     

Testing Parameter Constancy in Unit Root Autoregressive Models Against Multiple Continuous Structural Changes

This article considers tests for logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) models accommodating multiple time dependent transitions between regimes when the data generating process is a random walk. The asymptotic null distributions of the tests, in contrast to the standard results in Lin and Teräsvirta (1994 Lin , C. F. J. , Teräsvirta , T. ( 1994 ). Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change . Journal of Econometrics 62 : 211 – 228 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), are nonstandard. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that the tests have modest size distortions and satisfactory power against LSTAR models with multiple smooth breaks. The tests are applied to Swedish unemployment rates and the hysteresis hypothesis is over-turned in favour of an LSTAR model with two transitions between extreme regimes.     

Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK

There have been relatively few analyses of the policy context and consequences of a Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) for nominal interest rates. This paper sets out monetary policy alternatives, including negative interest rates, a revision of the inflation target, and rendering unconventional policy instruments such as QE conventional (permanent). Following extensive discussion of policy options, we set out a model that explores the impacts of the real policy rate on economic growth, employment and inflation, with particular attention to the British economy. We use a Time-Varying Structural Vector Auto-regressive (TVSVAR) Model where the sources of time variation are both the coefficients and variance–covariance matrix of the innovations. It was found that real rates have significant implications for real growth, the labour market and price stability even when monetary policy was constrained at the ZLB in nominal terms. The study additionally applies a discrete break in the data to focus on the Post-Global Financial Crisis and ZLB period. This indicates that the effectiveness of real rates did not diminish and this has important implications in terms of a policy approach which seeks to exploit real negative rates.     

A Bayes Linear Bayes Method for Estimation of Correlated Event Rates

Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well‐known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates.