Two stage multiple comparison procedures based on the studentized range

Stein’s (1945) two sample approach and Tukey’s T-Method of multiple comparisons (see e.g. Miller, 1966, Ch. 2) are combined to obtain fixed width simultaneous confidence intervals and simultaneous test procedures of predetermined Type I and Type II error levels, for all contrasts, in a one way layout. The necessary constants for implementing the two stage procedure are obtained under a least favorable configuration of the parameters. This provides the required protection of the null and alternative hypotheses under any configuration of parameters. A table is provided for some selected designs and error levels and an example is given to illustrate certain features of the new procedure.     

New approximate confidence intervals for the difference between two Poisson means and comparison

The problem of estimating the difference between two Poisson means is considered. A new moment confidence interval (CI), and a fiducial CI for the difference between the means are proposed. The moment CI is simple to compute, and it specializes to the classical Wald CI when the sample sizes are equal. Numerical studies indicate that the moment CI offers improvement over the Wald CI when the sample sizes are different. Exact properties of the CIs based on the moment, fiducial and hybrid methods are evaluated numerically. Our numerical study indicates that the hybrid and fiducial CIs are in general comparable, and the moment CI seems to be the best when the expected total counts from both distributions are two or more. The interval estimation procedures are illustrated using two examples.     

Kolmogorov–Smirnov,Fluctuation, and Z g Tests for Convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Draws

We examine the sizes and powers of three tests of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo draws: the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, fluctuation test, and Geweke's test. We show that the sizes and powers are sensitive to the existence of autocorrelation in the draws. We propose a filtered test that is corrected for autocorrelation. We present a numerical illustration using the Federal funds rate.     

Effective tax rates and firm size in Ethiopia

The literature on Effective Tax Rates (ETRs) focuses on high‐ and middle‐income countries, but there is very little evidence on low‐income countries. This article addresses this gap with new evidence from Ethiopia. We investigate corporate ETRs in Ethiopia and whether the distributional effects they have in practice are in line with the corporate tax policy design. We calculate ETRs in line with the literature in this field, using profit tax at the numerator and gross profit at the denominator. We then analyse ETRs not only using panel data, focusing particularly on their relation to firm size, but also including other explanatory variables. Our main result is that, despite a proportional tax rate, small firms face a higher effective tax burden than larger firms, while middle‐sized firms face the lowest burden of all. We highlight that tax systems can have practical implications that differ largely from their policy design, due to compliance costs and imperfect enforcement. Measures to reduce compliance costs for small firms are particularly recommended.     

甘青与辽西地区史前时期陶器对比研究

从甘青与辽西地区史前时期陶器的主要器形、陶质陶色、制作方法、纹饰等方面对比研究,从陶器的角度分析两个地区的先民是否存在文化交流。通过初步研究表明辽西地区的彩陶受到了甘青地区及中原地区的彩陶的影响,甘青和辽西地区在仰韶文化早期就存在着一定的文化交流。     

Asymptotic Distributions of Quasi‐Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Spatial Autoregressive Models

This paper investigates asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator and the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator for the spatial autoregressive model. The rates of convergence of those estimators may depend on some general features of the spatial weights matrix of the model. It is important to make the distinction with different spatial scenarios. Under the scenario that each unit will be influenced by only a few neighboring units, the estimators may have ‐rate of convergence and be asymptotically normal. When each unit can be influenced by many neighbors, irregularity of the information matrix may occur and various components of the estimators may have different rates of convergence.     

Comparing two measures of creatinine clearance: an application of errors-in-variables and bootstrap techniques

Two indices of creatinine clearance (an index of kidney function) are compared on a group of cancer patients who underwent chemotherapy with a potentially nephrotoxic drug. The standard index, measured creatinine clearance MCC, is cumbersome to use, whereas the more convenient alternative, estimated creatinine clearance ECC, has not yet been conclusively evaluated on cancer patients. We conclude that under certain clinical conditions ECC and MCC are identically calibrated for males, but not for females, and we obtain estimated true and false positive rates for assessing the use of ECC instead of MCC as a diagnostic tool. We use a model that is formally equivalent to an errors-in-variables model with (unbalanced) repeated observations and correlated measurement errors. The bootstrap is used to obtain standard errors and confidence limits.     

Parental Involvement Laws and Minor and Non-Minor Teen Abortion and Birth Rates

The effects of parental notice and consent laws on abortion and birth rates were analyzed for two groups of teens: those 15 to 17 years old (i.e., minor teens) and those 18 to 19 years old (i.e., non-minor teens). Twelve states report abortion and birth statistics at the county level for these two age groups. The sample consists of 597 counties from these twelve states. Residence county abortion and birth rates were regressed against parental notice laws, parental consent laws, and several control variables (i.e., type of state public funding, population density, education and income levels, unemployment rate, family stability, extent of poverty, church membership, and geographic region).An important finding of this study is that both parental consent and notification laws were related to significantly lower abortion rates and to significantly higher birth rates for both minor and non-minor teens. Three measures (i.e., church membership, family stability, and education level) were related negatively and significantly to minor and non-minor teens' abortion rates and birth rates. One other measure (i.e., restrictive public funding) was related significantly to lower abortion rates and higher birth rates for minor and non-minor teens.     

中国共产党建党九十年来的对美交往

中国共产党建党九十年来,与美国开展交往始终是其对外工作的重要方面。在革命和战争时期、新中国成立后社会主义建设时期以及改革开放新时期,中国共产党对美国的认识都曾随国际国内形势的变化而发生重大调整,双方之间经历了从对抗到合作的多次磨合。九十年对美交往的历史极大地丰富了中国共产党处理对外关系的宝贵经验,使得我们党能够成功地在正确判断国际形势的基础上,从维护民族利益和国家利益出发,坚持独立自主、平等互利原则,以斗争促合作来推动中美关系的发展。推进中美关系的进一步发展,需要在客观认识中美力量对比基础上制定务实稳妥的政策,加强双方的交流对话以增进互信,拓展对美交往的渠道。而美国则需要尊重中国核心国家利益和重大关切,调整心态,接纳中国的发展和崛起。     

人情社会与契约社会——基于社会交换理论的视角

人情社会与契约社会是社会交换的两种基本类型,人情社会的交换属于延时回报的交换、模糊回报的交换、熟人社会的交换、依靠道德约束的交换、特殊主义的交换;契约社会的交换则具有陌生人社会的交换、协商一致的交换、精确的交换、依靠法规约束的交换、普遍主义的交换等特点。两者既有联系又有多方面的区别。根据人情社会形成的原因,可以将其分作情感需求型、风险防范型、不当求利型三种类型。只有消除不当求利型人情社会,使人情社会仅在情感领域、契约社会在利益领域发挥其功能,我国才能从以人情社会为主导的社会转变为以契约社会为主导的社会。