《约翰·克利斯朵夫》中的安多纳德--凄美的法国文学女性形象

安多纳德是小说的两大主人公约翰·克利斯朵夫和奥里维之间的桥梁 ,正是通过她 ,他们两人才相知相遇。安多纳德是这篇小说的心灵世界不可缺少的推动力。安多纳德在小说中刚出场时是一个无忧无虑的少女形象。在经历了内心决定性的转变与爱和自我牺牲的精神主宰了她的心灵世界后 ,她那凄美的女性形象方才完整地呈现出来。这种转变是通过爱的净化、苦难的净化与宗教虔诚的净化带来的。安多纳德的女性形象所代表的正是这样凄美的爱和虔诚的力量。它由最后的死亡与神秘信仰所带来的净化得到最终完成     

我国私营经济政策的演变及创新建议

新中国成立后 ,我国关于私营经济的方针政策经历了一个特殊的历程。在追寻私营经济政策在建国初期 ,改革开放后两大时期的政策演变轨迹的基础上 ,提出完善市场准入政策 ,优化私营经济结构 ,完善社会化援助改策和权益保护政策 ,优化私营经济的发展环境 ,完善监督管理政策等我国私营经济政策创新建议     

调整战略推进转型以人与草原和谐为目标统筹解决“三牧”问题——对巴彦淖尔市新牧区建设的调查思考

本文通过对我市"三牧"问题形势的调查分析,对巴彦淖尔市新牧区的建设提出了自己的一些看法。     

论盛唐历史学家朱敬则

朱敬则是盛唐时期杰出的政治家、史学家。长期以来,对其史学成就,史学界未给予足够的重视,使得其史学成就长期淹没。本文在大量史料的基础上,对其史学成就进行了总结,以期同大家商讨。     

Empirical Analysis of Interval-Censored Failure Time Data with Linear Transformation Models

Interval-censored data naturally arise in many studies. For their regression analysis, many approaches have been proposed under various models and for most of them, the inference is carried out based on the asymptotic normality. In particular, Zhang et al. (2005) discussed the procedure under the linear transformation model. It is well-known that the symmetric property implied by the normal distribution may not be appropriate sometimes. Also the method could underestimate the variance of estimated parameters. This paper proposes an empirical likelihood-based procedure for the problem. Simulation and the analysis of a real data set are conducted to assess the performance of the procedure.     

Prediction Techniques for Box–Cox Regression Models

This article reviews several techniques useful for forming point and interval predictions in regression models with Box-Cox transformed variables. The techniques reviewed—plug-in, mean squared error analysis, predictive likelihood, and stochastic simulation—take account of nonnormality and parameter uncertainty in varying degrees. A Monte Carlo study examining their small-sample accuracy indicates that uncertainty about the Box–Cox transformation parameter may be relatively unimportant. For certain parameters, deterministic point predictions are biased, and plug-in prediction intervals are also biased. Stochastic simulation, as usually carried out, leads to badly biased predictions. A modification of the usual approach renders stochastic simulation predictions largely unbiased.     

Kernel density estimation for heavy-tailed distributions using the champernowne transformation

When estimating loss distributions in insurance, large and small losses are usually split because it is difficult to find a simple parametric model that fits all claim sizes. This approach involves determining the threshold level between large and small losses. In this article, a unified approach to the estimation of loss distributions is presented. We propose an estimator obtained by transforming the data set with a modification of the Champernowne cdf and then estimating the density of the transformed data by use of the classical kernel density estimator. We investigate the asymptotic bias and variance of the proposed estimator. In a simulation study, the proposed method shows a good performance. We also present two applications dealing with claims costs in insurance.     

The Politics of Expanding Healthcare Access to the Poor and Informal Sectors

How do the politics of agenda setting and policy adoption operate in the arena of healthcare reform in the industrializing world? Literature on the twenty‐first‐century developmental state emphasizes the role of democratic competition and civil society in causing political parties to take up new agendas, while power resources theory stresses the role of left‐wing political parties and labor unions in policy adoption. Yet, core tenets of these theories have not been considered extensively in light of dynamics in the industrializing world. This article examines the politics of policy adoption in countries that have recently aimed to provide healthcare access and financial protection to the poor and people in the informal sector in Mexico and Turkey. In line with literature on the twenty‐first‐century developmental state, we find democratic competition to play an important role in causing political parties to take up new agendas. However, examination of the cases illuminates surprising dynamics that challenge important elements of sociological theory: right‐leaning political parties played important roles in adoption, while labor unions and left‐wing parties oppose reform in the cases. Public health‐minded physicians leading change teams played important roles in agenda setting and leading the process of implementation.     

When informal is normal… On the role of credentials and contacts for the job entry in Serbia

The paper focuses on the roles of human capital and social resources in structuring young people's entries into either the formal or the informal labour market in the Serbian transformation society. Results show that informal labour market in Serbia follows the structure of the secondary labour market and signals vulnerability on part of youths employed there. Education dropouts are largely channelled to the informal sector, whereas favourably educated Serbian graduates are less attracted to it. Job search via social networks facilitates entry to unregistered employment, but slows down entry to registered employment for job seekers. Whereas stratification of labour market entry by education largely follows patterns of primary and secondary labour market attainment in any industrialized society, the effects of contacts might exhibit traces of inefficiencies peculiar to the transformation countries. Analyses are conducted on the basis of the Serbian school-leaver survey (2006) applying event history modelling and binomial regression analysis.     

在应对“用工荒”中推动企业转型升级

总结用工荒的基本特征,分析其产生的原因,并提出企业和政府联手应对用工荒的对策。认为企业要通过机械化和自动化降低用工依赖、提高效率和向低成本地区转移来化解用工高成本,变革企业管理减少员工流失。政府要通过加快区域产业布局调整、加强农民工职业技能培训、加快农业现代化建设提高用工供给、推动农民工与市民在住房保障等方面平权、优化农民工就业服务和劳动力市场建设、构建少取多予的财税扶持等措施,帮助企业应对用工荒,实现转型升级。