Estimator Choice and Fisher's Paradox: A Monte Carlo Study

This paper argues that Fisher's paradox can be explained away in terms of estimator choice. We analyse by means of Monte Carlo experiments the small sample properties of a large set of estimators (including virtually all available single-equation estimators), and compute the critical values based on the empirical distributions of the t-statistics, for a variety of Data Generation Processes (DGPs), allowing for structural breaks, ARCH effects etc. We show that precisely the estimators most commonly used in the literature, namely OLS, Dynamic OLS (DOLS) and non-prewhitened FMLS, have the worst performance in small samples, and produce rejections of the Fisher hypothesis. If one employs the estimators with the most desirable properties (i.e., the smallest downward bias and the minimum shift in the distribution of the associated t-statistics), or if one uses the empirical critical values, the evidence based on US data is strongly supportive of the Fisher relation, consistently with many theoretical models.     

工程建设项目投资控制

论述投资控制的关键环节,提出投资控制工作的实施要点,阐明投资控制工作的必要性、可行性和重大意义.     

文化差异给英汉翻译带来的困难

翻译涉及到语言和文化。本文从五个方面阐述了不同的文化观念给翻译带来的困难,并以举例的方式提出了解决这些困难的方法。     

专业观众展览会参观动机研究——来自东莞的证据

以展览业发达的东莞为研究样地,利用因素分析与聚类研究相结合的综合定量方法,对专业观众的观展动机进行综合评估及分类研究。研究表明,专业观众的非购买动机甚过购买动机,他们观展动机的四个维度因子依次为:搜集信息、建立市场关系、考察奖励、采购行为。本研究还发现专业观众的观展动机分为目标模糊型、信息搜集导向型、目标多维明确型三种类型。     

LLSM在群体判断中的推广和应用

首先分析了对数最小二乘排序法的特点,说明它是一种值得重视的好方法;并进一步阐述了这一方法的基本原理,着重地对群体判断下求加权的综合排序向量的方法进行了严密的数学推导;提出了在加权的综合排序中权重系数确定的新見解,并举例子以解释。     

A modified random-effect procedure for combining risk difference in sets of 2×2 tables from clinical trials

Summary Meta-analyses of sets of clinical trials often combine risk differences from several 2×2 tables according to a random-effects model. The DerSimonian-Laird random-effects procedure, widely used for estimating the populaton mean risk difference, weights the risk difference from each primary study inversely proportional to an estimate of its variance (the sum of the between-study variance and the conditional within-study variance). Because those weights are not independent of the risk differences, however, the procedure sometimes exhibits bias and unnatural behavior. The present paper proposes a modified weighting scheme that uses the unconditional within-study variance to avoid this source of bias. The modified procedure has variance closer to that available from weighting by ideal weights when such weights are known. We studied the modified procedure in extensive simulation experiments using situations whose parameters resemble those of actual studies in medical research. For comparison we also included two unbiased procedures, the unweighted mean and a sample-size-weighted mean; their relative variability depends on the extent of heterogeneity among the primary studies. An example illustrates the application of the procedures to actual data and the differences among the results. This research was supported by Grant HS 05936 from the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research to Harvard University.     

A study of simulated annealing and a revised cascade algorithm for image reconstruction

We describe an image reconstruction problem and the computational difficulties arising in determining the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. Two algorithms for tackling the problem, iterated conditional modes (ICM) and simulated annealing, are usually applied pixel by pixel. The performance of this strategy can be poor, particularly for heavily degraded images, and as a potential improvement Jubb and Jennison (1991) suggest the cascade algorithm in which ICM is initially applied to coarser images formed by blocking squares of pixels. In this paper we attempt to resolve certain criticisms of cascade and present a version of the algorithm extended in definition and implementation. As an illustration we apply our new method to a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image. We also carry out a study of simulated annealing, with and without cascade, applied to a more tractable minimization problem from which we gain insight into the properties of cascade algorithms.     

金属垂直安定面的后向散射分析

采用射线跟踪和等效电流等方法计算金属垂直安定面的后向散射场和后向散射截面积(RCS)。对TM入射和TE入射在不同的入射角下求得数值结果。仔细分析了外形对后向RCS的影响,并提出压缩后向RCS的措施。     

论高校“思想道德修养”课教学方法的创新——以德育课内容为主体，将音乐融入课堂教学

"思想道德修养"作为高校"两课"中的思想品德课,要提高它的教学实效,其中最重要的一个环节就是在教学方法上创新.文章从"思想道德修养"课教学的现状、音乐的辅德优势、将音乐融入"思想道德修养"课的具体方法与优势等方面探讨了提高"思想道德修养"课教学实效的新方法,即在坚持德育课主体内容的同时,以音乐为辅助手段,将德育课内容与音乐作品有机结合.这种教学方法可以在很大程度上提高教学质量.     

蒙特卡罗方法及其在辐射剂量计算中的应用

概述了蒙特卡罗方法的产生与发展,阐述了蒙特卡罗方法的基本特点,最后就蒙特卡罗方法在辐射剂量计算上的应用进行了讨论。