Decision settings analysis – a tool for analysis and design of human activity systems

The paper describes a methodology to be used for analysis and design of human activity systems. The methodology is based on an analysis of the decision settings whereas most other decision analysis methodologies are analysing the process. The decision concept is analysed and discussed. A distinction between programmed and programmable as well as non-programmed and non-programmable decisions is proposed. A classification of different information types for decision making is presented. A methodology based on a systemic and systematic analysis of the information requirements of an organization is proposed. This methodology also indicates organizational discrepancies and information imbalances. The methodology focuses the settings of the decisions on all levels of organizations. The methodology can be regarded as a dynamic, learning system. The author proposes further research on the individuals decision making abilities.     

草地早熟禾主要经济性状间的灰色关联分析

应用灰色关联分析方法研究了坪用草地早熟禾地上生物量、生殖枝数、生殖枝高、穗长、穗粒数、结实率等6个主要经济性状与种子产量以及各性状之间的关联程度。结果表明,各性状与种子产量之间的关联度大小依次为单位面积生殖枝数＞单位面积地上生物量＞生殖技高＞穗长＞结实率＞穗粒数。地上生物量对生殖校高、生殖枝数和穗长的影响较大。     

移动技术教学之我见

本文对移动在篮球运动中的重要意义和作用,进行了深入的研究,对移动的教学方法进行了实践和总结。     

Cohort Succession in the US Housing Market: New Houses, the Baby Boom, and Income Stratification

Federal housing policy in the US across the postwar period supported the construction of new houses more than public provision or renovation of older structures as a means of ensuring a sufficient supply of quality dwellings. Understanding trends in new housing in particular is thus crucial to understanding the housing regime. Following Myers (Housing demography: Linking demographic structure and housing markets. University of Wisconsin Press, 1990; Housing Studies, 14, 473–490,1999), this paper conceptualizes historical change in the housing stock within a demographic framework as the movement of cohorts of households through cohorts of housing stock. Recent evidence suggests that a new cohort of houses arose in the 1980s and 1990s (larger with more amenities than past vintages), and that buyers of those new houses were increasingly affluent. In this paper, I link the succession to a new cohort of houses to household cohort succession and examine the increasing affluence of new house buyers by age and cohort, focusing especially on the entry of the Baby Boom generation exactly when the new cohort of houses arrived. I use US Census microdata for 1960–2000 to develop a cohort longitudinal dataset, and analyze historical change in stratification in new house ownership. I find significant shifts between cohorts in income inequality among new house buyers, with implications for the capacity of the housing regime to meet the future needs of an increasingly diverse population.

Survival Convergence and the Preceding Mortality Crossover for Two Population Subgroups

In this paper, we present and develop the argument that if the survival functions for two population subgroups converge in later life, a mortality crossover must precede the occurrence of this convergence. Specifically, two survival curves, S ₁(x) and S ₂(x), associated with two distinct population subgroups, G₁ and G₂, tend to converge before all members die out, as often observed and anticipated. This convergence leads to an increased mortality acceleration for the “advantaged” group, and eventually fosters the occurrence of a mortality crossover. We present a mathematical proof for this relationship and offer several explanations for the mechanisms involved in the process of survival convergence and the preceding mortality crossover. This new presentation demonstrates that mortality crossover is a highly observable demographic event given the trend of survival convergence in later life.     

基于熵值法的贸易可持续发展指数——以浙江省的实证研究为例

贸易可持续发展成为我国经济和社会可持续发展的重中之重。文章从贸易可持续发展的定义出发,提出由贸易升级指数、贸易稳定指数和贸易环保指数构成的贸易可持续发展综合评价指数,再运用熵值法实证测算浙江省贸易可持续发展指数,结果表明浙江省2002-2004年实证研究结果符合该时期的实际情况,表明该指数和评价方法是科学合理的。     

我国老年人临终前需要完全照料的时间分析

根据中国老年人健康长寿影响因素2005年第4周期调查数据,用多水平随机效应序列模型,对中国65岁及以上老年人临终前需要他人完全照料的天数进行较为系统的分析。结果显示照料时间与杜区社会经济发展因素无很大关联性,但与性别、受教育程度、有病及时治疗、子女可近度、经常参与宗教佛事活动和基期健康等个体因素存在一定依存关系。     

中国流动儿童政策分析

本文从儿童权利平等的角度出发,结合2003年“中国九城市流动儿童生活状况调查”数据,从国家和地方两个层面,主观和客观两个方面深入分析流动儿童政策的现状,剖析国家和地方政府之间的义务和责任关系,分析影响流动儿童政策制定、执行等环节的因素,针对流动儿童主要问题,提出政策建议。     

网络动态海报《随传随到》的多模态话语分析

作为数字传播时代的新兴产物,动态海报具有画面表现力强、传递信息量大、受众参与度高等特征,已广泛应用于网络广告领域。研究基于多模态话语分析综合理论框架,辅之以视觉语法理论,解析网络动态海报《随传随到》运用多模态符号资源实现的积极广告传播效果。研究发现：文化层面,意识形态是理解动态海报和实现广告传播效果的必要前提;语境层面,语境因素是动态海报产生特征和积极广告传播效果的动因;内容层面,广告传播效果取决于多模态资源在意义构建中的运用;表达层面,GIF格式文件为动态海报达到积极广告传播效果提供了技术支持。研究结合广告学知识探索了多模态话语分析在网络动态海报中的应用,旨在为动态海报的广告传播效果提供语言学解释。