一般进化的微观机制

一般进化在系统内微观子系统层次上的微观机制 ,是涨落单元内外部子系统之间互为因果循环的正反馈类型的相互作用。其本质特征 ,是双方之间作用的非对称性 ,表现为一方的属性支配着另一方属性的变化 ,另一方丧失自己原先的属性而以一方的属性为自己的新属性。这种相互作用同时具有协同和放大效应 ,从而使涨落单元由局部迅速放大到整体 ,而形成一个新的有序结构     

浅议信息革命对政府管理的影响

信息革命的兴起,对人类社会的各个方面都产生了重大而深刻的影响,政府管理随之将发生一系列重大变革,这些变革涉及政府管理职能、政府管理观念、政府管理手段、政府工作方式、政府管理价值取向、政府管理机构以及政府管理模式等各个方面。信息革命既对政府管理带来了重大影响和深刻变革,也给政府管理带来了负面效应。政府管理要适应信息革命潮流,把正面影响发挥到极致,把负面效应降低到最小。     

婚姻状态对老年人死亡概率的影响研究--基于CLHLS队列数据的实证分析

文章基于 CLHLS 队列数据,运用统计分析及经验论证,解析出婚姻状态影响老年人死亡概率的作用机理,即在婚状态以其“保护效应”减小老年人患病的机率,进而减小其死亡概率;相反,不在婚状态的“损害效应”会增加老年人患病的机率,进而增加其死亡的概率。在所得结论基础上,为促进老年健康和应对养老挑战,针对老年人婚姻问题提出了相关政策建议。     

Are children better witnesses than adolescents? Developmental trends in different false memory paradigms

Abstract

The current study compared older children’s (11/12-year-olds) and adolescents’ (14/15-year-olds) vulnerability to false memory creation using two different methods (i.e., the Deese/Roediger-McDermott [DRM] and memory conformity paradigms) involving neutral and negative stimuli. In line with previous research, a developmental reversal effect was found for the DRM paradigm, which means that when employing this method children displayed lower false memory levels than adolescents. However, when using the memory conformity paradigm, the opposite pattern was found, with adolescents forming fewer false memories than children. This indicates that in a co-witness context, adolescents are less prone to memory errors than children. The emotional valence of the stimuli used in both paradigms did not notably affect the production of false memories. There was no statistically significant correlation between false memories as measured by the DRM and the memory conformity paradigms. Altogether, the current study indicates that there is no single type of false memory as different experimental paradigms evoke different types of erroneous recollections. Additionally, our study corroborates past findings in the literature concerning the issue of developmental reversal, strengthening the idea that under certain circumstances children might indeed be better witnesses than adolescents.     

Uniform in bandwidth consistency for various kernel estimators involving functional data

The paper investigates various nonparametric models including regression, conditional distribution, conditional density and conditional hazard function, when the covariates are infinite dimensional. The main contribution is to prove uniform in bandwidth asymptotic results for kernel estimators of these functional operators. Then, the application issues, involving data-driven bandwidth selection, are discussed.     

Some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotical independence with applications to risk theory

In this article we obtain some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent (pQAI) random variables. Concretely speaking, let X₁, …, X_n be n real-valued pQAI random variables, and W₁, …, W_n be another n non negative and arbitrarily dependent random variables, but independent of X₁, …, X_n. Under some mild conditions, we prove that W₁X₁, …, W_nX_n are still pQAI as well. Our result is in a general setting whether the primary random variables X₁, …, X_n are heavy-tailed or not. Finally, a special case of above result is applied to risk theory for investigating the finite-time ruin probability for a discrete-time risk model with a wide type of dependence structure.     

A Mann–Whitney type effect measure of interaction for factorial designs

We propose a measure for interaction for factorial designs that is formulated in terms of a probability similar to the effect size of the Mann–Whitney test. It is shown how asymptotic confidence intervals can be obtained for the effect size and how a statistical test can be constructed. We further show how the test is related to the test proposed by Bhapkar and Gore [Sankhya A, 36:261–272 (1974)]. The results of a simulation study indicate that the test has good power properties and illustrate when the asymptotic approximations are adequate. The effect size is demonstrated on an example dataset.     

Three-group ROC predictive analysis for ordinal outcomes

Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic tests is crucial in many application areas including medicine, machine learning, and credit scoring. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface is a useful tool to assess the ability of a diagnostic test to discriminate among three-ordered classes or groups. In this article, nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for three-group ROC analysis for ordinal outcomes is presented. NPI is a frequentist statistical method that is explicitly aimed at using few modeling assumptions, enabled through the use of lower and upper probabilities to quantify uncertainty. This article also includes results on the volumes under the ROC surfaces and consideration of the choice of decision thresholds for the diagnosis. Two examples are provided to illustrate our method.     

The performance of model averaged tail area confidence intervals

We investigate the exact coverage and expected length properties of the model averaged tail area (MATA) confidence interval proposed by Turek and Fletcher, CSDA, 2012, in the context of two nested, normal linear regression models. The simpler model is obtained by applying a single linear constraint on the regression parameter vector of the full model. For given length of response vector and nominal coverage of the MATA confidence interval, we consider all possible models of this type and all possible true parameter values, together with a wide class of design matrices and parameters of interest. Our results show that, while not ideal, MATA confidence intervals perform surprisingly well in our regression scenario, provided that we use the minimum weight within the class of weights that we consider on the simpler model.     

信息内容可信度对消费者转基因食品接受程度的影响——以江苏省为例

深入研究外部信息传入特别是信息内容可信度对消费者转基因食品接受程度的影响对中国政府转基因科普宣传具有重要意义。利用江苏省消费者调查数据,定量研究信息内容可信度等因素对消费者转基因食品接受程度的影响,具体来说,定量研究积极属性信息内容和消极属性信息内容对不同风险人群(所有样本、低风险人群、高风险人群)转基因食品接受程度的影响。研究结果表明,外部信息传入更容易影响低风险人群对转基因食品的接受程度。积极属性和消极属性信息内容可信度分别显著正向和负向影响低风险人群对转基因食品的接受程度,且前者的作用较大。积极属性信息内容可信度对高风险人群转基因食品接受程度的影响较弱,而消极属性信息内容可信度对高风险人群几乎没有影响。