Estimation of the intercept parameter for linear regression model with uncertain non-sample prior information

This paper considers alternative estimators of the intercept parameter of the linear regression model with normal error when uncertain non-sample prior information about the value of the slope parameter is available. The maximum likelihood, restricted, preliminary test and shrinkage estimators are considered. Based on their quadratic biases and mean square errors the relative performances of the estimators are investigated. Both analytical and graphical comparisons are explored. None of the estimators is found to be uniformly dominating the others. However, if the non-sample prior information regarding the value of the slope is not too far from its true value, the shrinkage estimator of the intercept parameter dominates the rest of the estimators.     

Measuring the impact of prices on inequality: With applications to Thailand and Korea

This paper develops a new methodology to compute social cost of living indices. These indices indicate whether or not price changes have a favourable (or unfavourable) impact on the welfare of the poor. The indices are derived on the basis of two alternative classes of social welfare functions. The methodology developed in the paper is applied to compute social cost of living indices for Thailand and Korea. The empirical results show that changes in prices have generally affected the poor more adversely than the non-poor.     

Local model uncertainty and incomplete-data bias (with discussion)

Summary.  Problems of the analysis of data with incomplete observations are all too familiar in statistics. They are doubly difficult if we are also uncertain about the choice of model. We propose a general formulation for the discussion of such problems and develop approximations to the resulting bias of maximum likelihood estimates on the assumption that model departures are small. Loss of efficiency in parameter estimation due to incompleteness in the data has a dual interpretation: the increase in variance when an assumed model is correct; the bias in estimation when the model is incorrect. Examples include non-ignorable missing data, hidden confounders in observational studies and publication bias in meta-analysis. Doubling variances before calculating confidence intervals or test statistics is suggested as a crude way of addressing the possibility of undetectably small departures from the model. The problem of assessing the risk of lung cancer from passive smoking is used as a motivating example.     

Getting the offer: Sex discrimination in hiring

The hiring process is currently the least understood aspect of the employment relationship. It may be the most important for understanding the broad processes of stratification with allocation of demographic groups to jobs and firms. The lack of knowledge is due to difficulty of assembling data on the processes that occur at the point of hire. Against this background we analyze data on all applicants to positions in one of the largest Scandinavian banks in 1997–1998, providing what we believe to be the first study using applicant pool data and information about extended offers in a private-sector European firm, adding to the record of about half a dozen such U.S. studies. The hiring agents in the organization are fully conscious and concerned about the nonconscious biases and gender schemas they carry when making hiring decisions. Their effects on hiring are considered to be beyond dispute: women are at a clear disadvantage. For actual hiring practices we found that the opposite is true: women are not at a disadvantage and may even be at an advantage in getting offers. Two organizational practices may lead to female advantage. The hiring agents had been educated about the role of nonconscious biases, which perhaps mitigated their effects. But they had also been instructed to search actively for qualified females in the applicant pool. With no qualified females in the first pass, they go through the pool a second and third time hoping to find one. We discuss reasons why the interpretations and meanings the hiring agents attribute to the hiring process are at odds with what actually occurs.     

行为金融学理论述评

20世纪80年代以来,大量的金融研究与市场异象对传统资本市场理论提出了挑战。行为金融理论在整合多学科研究成果,特别是心理学研究的基础上,从投资者的实际决策行为出发,分析与解释金融市场。通过文献研究,文章回顾了有关行为金融学的基本理论与研究,包括前景理论及其他相关理论的发展。此外,对国内有关行为金融学研究特点进行总结分析,并对其今后研究发展提出了设想。     

通用性指标偏好及其实验研究——平衡计分卡在多部门企业中的应用

文章分析了通用性指标偏好产生的原因、影响和解决途径,并通过实验研究,考察了中国实验者在平衡计分卡应用中是否也存在通用性指标偏好,以及集体决策方式对通用性偏好程度的影响。决策者组成的多元化,是集体决策发挥作用的重要因素,这一结论对于部门平衡计分卡在现实中的应用和企业绩效评价实践具有启示作用。     

Small-sample results for maximum-likelihood estimation in branching processes

In this article, small sample properties of the maximum-likelihood estimator (m.l.e.) for the offspring distribution (pk) and its mean m are considered in the context of the simple branching process. A representation theorem is given for the m.l.e. of (Pk) from which the m.l.e. of m is obtained. The case where p0 + p1 + p2 = 1 is studied in detail: numerical results are given for the exact bias of these estimators as a function of the age of the process; a curve fitting analysis expresses the bias of m? as a function of the mean and the variance of the offspring distribution and finally an “approximate m.l.e.” for (pk) is given.     

Assessing the Reliability and Validity of the Jump$tart Survey of Financial Literacy

Financial education represents an area of popular interest, owing largely to the Jump$tart surveys of financial literacy. However, while the surveys represent indicators of financial knowledge among high school seniors, these measures have not been statistically validated. This article describes an assessment of the surveys reliability (internal consistency), and validity. It reports a moderately high degree of consistency overall, however, discloses low to moderate internal consistencies among subscales. It also finds significant response differences to one quarter of comparable items between surveys. The researcher observes challenges to affirming the surveys validity and offers statistics suggesting social bias among survey items. He calls for further research into measures of financial literacy.The author appreciates the guidance and support of Dr. Duane Giannangelo, Dr. Jean Steiz, Dr. Lou Franceschini, and Dr. Steven Ross.     

LOGISTIC REGRESSION COMPARED TO NORMAL DISCRIMINATION FOR NON-NORMAL POPULATIONS'

An investigation is undertaken of the logistic regression procedure for estimating the posterior probability of an object belonging to one of two populations. The asymptotic bias and mean square error associated with the procedure are derived for univariate populations whose distributions satisfy the general Day-Kerridge model for which the logistic form is valid for the posterior probability. These properties are compared with those of the normal discrimination method based on the classical assumption of normal populations with common variances. The asymptotic relative efficiency of logistic regression is considered on the basis of asymptotic mean square error.     

社会支配取向量表在中国的信度和效度研究

本研究尝试修订西方的社会支配取向量表.359名大学本科生参与了研究.结果表明,社会支配取向量表修订后包含14个项目,量表具有较好的内部一致性、重测信度和一定的预测效度;中国被试社会支配取向得分普遍比西方的高;中文修订量表不同于西方的单因素或者双因素结构,它包括4个因素,即"反对群体平等"、"赞同优势群体的支配性"、"赞同劣势群体的较低地位"、"赞同维持等级差异".