西方国家意识形态扩张的现代性路径及应对方略

生态、潮流、反恐、普世等问题已异化为西方意识形态扩张的现代性路径;从全球化趋势的形成和发展、主流意识形态建设的弱化、新媒体发展和普及等方面着力分析西方意识形态扩张现代性路径的诸多原因,加强马克思主义意识形态宣传教育、提升马克思主义意识形态交往的主动权和影响力、促进社会发展和惠民建设等进行应对。     

品牌拓展新市场过程中消费者选择行为研究

研究消费者品牌选择行为是进行品牌拓展新市场的前提。本文基于消费者决策理论,利用元胞自动机分析了品牌文化、广告宣传、邻居关系及数量、竞争者、市场的经济环境等对消费者进行品牌选择时的影响,研究结果表明该模型能较好地模拟出品牌进行拓展新市场过程中的消费者选择行为。通过对品牌拓展新市场过程中的消费者选择行为的分析,找出更适合进行品牌扩张的区域。     

A simple approximation for the doubly noncentral t-distribution

A simple approximation for the doubly noncentral t-distribution, based upon the Fieller-Geary Theorem (1930) and approximate normality of the square root of the noncentral chi-square variable observed by Patnaik (1949), is developed, This approximation and an Edgeworth series expansion associated with it are evaluated. The simple approximation is seen to be reasonably accurate for most practical purposes.     

美国扩军备战的鼓吹者——伦纳德·伍德

伦纳德·伍德认为：美国必须为未来战争做好准备，实行国民经济总动员，建立公民军队、平民军事教育体系和预备役军官。他在担任总参谋长期间采取了一系列的措施：提高总参谋部的效率，改革后勤，改组国民警卫队，改革军队编制，开展“普拉茨堡运动”，颁布1916年《国防法》和《扩军法》，为美国参加第一次世界大战做好了准备。     

Could Removing Arsenic from Tobacco Smoke Significantly Reduce Smoker Risks of Lung Cancer?

If a specific biological mechanism could be determined by which a carcinogen increases lung cancer risk, how might this knowledge be used to improve risk assessment? To explore this issue, we assume (perhaps incorrectly) that arsenic in cigarette smoke increases lung cancer risk by hypermethylating the promoter region of gene p16INK4a, leading to a more rapid entry of altered (initiated) cells into a clonal expansion phase. The potential impact on lung cancer of removing arsenic is then quantified using a three‐stage version of a multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model. This refines the usual two‐stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis by resolving its intermediate or “initiated” cell compartment into two subcompartments, representing experimentally observed “patch” and “field” cells. This refinement allows p16 methylation effects to be represented as speeding transitions of cells from the patch state to the clonally expanding field state. Given these assumptions, removing arsenic might greatly reduce the number of nonsmall cell lung cancer cells (NSCLCs) produced in smokers, by up to two‐thirds, depending on the fraction (between 0 and 1) of the smoking‐induced increase in the patch‐to‐field transition rate prevented if arsenic were removed. At present, this fraction is unknown (and could be as low as zero), but the possibility that it could be high (close to 1) cannot be ruled out without further data.     

Information matrix for a mixture of two inverse gaussian distributions

In this paper, Fisher information matrix about the five parameters ρ, μ_:1, μ², λ¹and λ²of a mixture of two Inverse Gaussian density functions is obtained. The Leguerre-Gauss quadrature formula is used to evaluate the essential integral on which the twenty five elements of the information matrix are based. Results involving the computation of the information about p are compared with those involving both the power series expansion and Simpson's method of integration. Laguerre-Gauss quadra-ture was found to lead to good approximations as compared with other methods. It was therefore chosen for the computations of the elements of the information matrix.     

Flows and Cohesion: Balancing Capabilities Across an Expanded Union1

Until recently the flow of skilled workers to established centres from more peripheral regions was seen as a ‘brain drain’, implying a one‐way and permanent loss of skilled labour. However, increasing mobility and connectivity permits more complex traffic between more and less advanced locations. With the emergence of a global economy dependent on flows of material and intellectual capital, the notion of ‘brain circulation’ has gained prominence. Understanding the potential benefits of migration to both donor and recipient economies must move beyond financial remittance to social remittance. As connectivity increases, both become capacity‐building resources. This article discusses the impact of a combination of greater physical mobility and electronic connectivity on the dual objectives of social cohesion and technical leadership being pursued through the policies of the European Commission.     

现代化进程中古城风貌的保护与延伸

在现代化进程中古城风貌保护与延伸的理论与对策应是社会学学者所关注的一个问题。古城应在动态中进行“城市性格”保护和延伸,在宏观上分异城市功能,在微观上注重“修旧如旧”和“点、线、面”的三位一体,城市社区的建设问题可以在保护和延伸中协调解决。     

胀接对管板强度的加强效应

由于胀接使列管与管板紧密连接，管壁厚度的部分或全部可以考虑在管桥 宽度中.本文通过数值计算分析了胀接对管板强度的加强效应.     

Bootstrap confidence regions computed from autoregressions of arbitrary order

Given a linear time series, e.g. an autoregression of infinite order, we may construct a finite order approximation and use that as the basis for confidence regions. The sieve or autoregressive bootstrap, as this method is often called, is generally seen as a competitor with the better-understood block bootstrap approach. However, in the present paper we argue that, for linear time series, the sieve bootstrap has significantly better performance than blocking methods and offers a wider range of opportunities. In particular, since it does not corrupt second-order properties then it may be used in a double-bootstrap form, with the second bootstrap application being employed to calibrate a basic percentile method confidence interval. This approach confers second-order accuracy without the need to estimate variance. That offers substantial benefits, since variances of statistics based on time series can be difficult to estimate reliably, and—partly because of the relatively small amount of information contained in a dependent process—are notorious for causing problems when used to Studentize. Other advantages of the sieve bootstrap include considerably greater robustness against variations in the choice of the tuning parameter, here equal to the autoregressive order, and the fact that, in contradistinction to the case of the block bootstrap, the percentile t version of the sieve bootstrap may be based on the 'raw' estimator of standard error. In the process of establishing these properties we show that the sieve bootstrap is second order correct.