Survival and lifetime data analysis with a flexible class of distributions

We introduce a general class of continuous univariate distributions with positive support obtained by transforming the class of two-piece distributions. We show that this class of distributions is very flexible, easy to implement, and contains members that can capture different tail behaviours and shapes, producing also a variety of hazard functions. The proposed distributions represent a flexible alternative to the classical choices such as the log-normal, Gamma, and Weibull distributions. We investigate empirically the inferential properties of the proposed models through an extensive simulation study. We present some applications using real data in the contexts of time-to-event and accelerated failure time models. In the second kind of applications, we explore the use of these models in the estimation of the distribution of the individual remaining life.     

现代社会转型与法治政府的变革路径

伴随着中国改革开放的进程,转型成为社会变迁的主题和基本特征。与此相应的却是,改革日益呈现出一种“锁定”的状态。在社会转型时期出现的诸多根本性问题,并不能用过渡性的办法来解决。在国家和法律的现代化进程中,特别是构建法治政府的进程中,政府不能再像过去那样,一味运用相机决策和政策调整来处理社会利益矛盾,不能再对不同群体在基本权利上区别对待。同样,在工农、城乡、区域乃至人与自然生态之间,要实现统筹协调发展的目标,更需要加强普遍性的努力,这种普遍性努力以法治和体现法治精神的整体性政策为特征。     

关注利益相关者与实现民营外贸企业成功转型的关系研究

入世后,我国民营外贸企业得到了迅猛的发展,目前已基本完成了"量"的积累,进入了全面转型和提升"质"的阶段。民营外贸企业要突破当前的发展困境,必须关注企业的内外部利益相关者,只有得到他们的充分理解与大力支持,才能成功实现企业的转型。     

A monte carlo evaluation of response surface analysis based on paired-comparison data

The use of the logit transformation on paired-comparison data in the weighted least squares analysis of response surfaces for aesthetic qualities of products is discussed. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to investigate the small sample properties of the estimators and test statistics. A secondary objective of the Monte Carlo simulations is the comparison of two transformation procedures. The simulations are of standard-item paired-compar-ison experiments in which ties are not allowed.     

Improving TAIEX forecasting using fuzzy time series with Box–Cox power transformation

Box–Cox together with our newly proposed transformation were implemented in three different real world empirical problems to alleviate noisy and the volatility effect of them. Consequently, a new domain was constructed. Subsequently, universe of discourse for transformed data was established and an approach for calculating effective length of the intervals was then proposed. Considering the steps above, the initial forecasts were performed using frequently used fuzzy time series (FTS) methods on transformed data. Final forecasts were retrieved from initial forecasted values by proper inverse operation. Comparisons of the results demonstrate that the proposed method produced more accurate forecasts compared with existing FTS on original data.     

有限理性指导下的过渡性制度构建——社会转型背景下侦查程序完善的整体设想

目前理论界对侦查程序的研究理性化色彩过重，学者们多对不同的刑事诉讼模式进行静态比较，得出何种模式相对优劣的结论，从而进行制度构建。这虽然有利于目标模式的选择，但不利于具有可操作性的制度设计。本文从我国社会转型时期的宏观背景出发，以这一特定时期所存在的对侦查机关完成打击犯罪和保障人权双重使命有重大影响的因素为切入点，进行系统审视，提出有限理性的理念，并以此为指导进行过渡性制度设计。     

A note on approximate confidence limits for the negative binomial model

Four methods of approximating confidence limits for the single negative binomial parameter, P, are outlined and an empirical study is presented. Some remarks on prediction intervals are also included.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： ONLINE LITERATURE IN CHINA： PRESENT SITUATION AND THEORETICAL REFLECTIONS Online Writing in the Course of Discourse Transformation： A Review of Ten Outstanding Online Novels of the Past Decade

中国当代文学阅读层面上的价值认同正在经受前所未有的挑战。特别是新世纪以来，新的写作群体、写作方式不断涌现，使固有的理论批评体系遭到撞击、被撕裂，从而导致理论批评不时出现失语现象。随着网络文学的迅猛发展，非主流文学在阅读与消费环节中的影响日益增强，这就使得上述问题转化成了新的矛盾——互相不能包容的阅读隔膜。十多年来，网络上产生了海量的小说文本，逐渐形成了二十多种类型；本文兼顾时间跨度和创作类型，遴选了十年中不同类型的十部佳作，并针对它们区别于纸质媒体的艺术审美和创作特点进行了述评。     

转型加速时期西部少数民族地区结构性贫困研究述论

文章认为西部少数民族地区在社会转型加快时期的贫困问题基本上是结构性贫困,并对这种结构性贫困问题的具体特征及其产生的社会危害进行纬度结构分析,最后系统地从建构现代国家治理体系和治理现代化的背景下提出了治理路径。     

Orientation relationship in finite dimensional space

In the present article, we discuss the regression of a point on the surface of a unit sphere in d dimensions given a point on the surface of a unit sphere in p dimensions, where p may not be equal to d. Point projection is added to the rotation and linear transformation for regression link function. The identifiability of the model is proved. Then, parameter estimation in this set up is discussed. Simulation studies and data analyses are done to illustrate the model.