Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models

This article discusses how analyst's or expert's beliefs on the credibility and quality of models can be assessed and incorporated into the uncertainty assessment of an unknown of interest. The proposed methodology is a specialization of the Bayesian framework for the assessment of model uncertainty presented in an earlier paper. This formalism treats models as sources of information in assessing the uncertainty of an unknown, and it allows the use of predictions from multiple models as well as experimental validation data about the models’ performances. In this article, the methodology is extended to incorporate additional types of information about the model, namely, subjective information in terms of credibility of the model and its applicability when it is used outside its intended domain of application. An example in the context of fire risk modeling is also provided.     

功能语境视域的《论语》歧义句语内翻译模式研究

语内翻译是典籍翻译过程中一个重要步骤,其对典籍歧义句的处理直接影响最终的翻译质量。在功能语境理论框架内,采用宏观功能语境分析和自下而上的具体分析相结合的方法,以《论语·学而篇》第8章“学则不固”的“固”字为例,对《论语》歧义句语内翻译进行研究,探讨可操作的翻译模式。研究发现在歧义句语内翻译过程中进行语境还原,有助消除词汇歧义;研究认为“学则不固”的“固”字应作“固陋”解译。      

未焊透缺陷安全尺寸的评价研究

未焊透是压力管道焊接接头常见缺陷之一,严重时会导致管道的承载能力明显降低,进而引发严重的安全事故。 目前我国的《在用工业管道定期检验规程》中对未焊透管道的定级是很保守的,为了减少对未焊透缺陷的返修,文章采 用非线性有限元分析的方法,通过简化未焊透管道的影响因素,并研究在不同载荷工况下管道失效模式与缺陷尺寸的关 系,获得了未焊透管道的极限载荷曲线簇;再运用塑性力学分析方法对有限元分析结果进行筛选,得到了焊接缺陷的安 全尺寸;最终通过试验验证极限载荷数值分析结果的合理性。研究结果表明含有超标焊接缺陷（如未焊透）的管道不通 过复杂应力计算和安全评定即可在保证安全前提下最大限度地使用。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Functional Computer Output: A Simulation Study in Inverse Problems

Computer models with functional output are omnipresent throughout science and engineering. Most often the computer model is treated as a black-box and information about the underlying mathematical model is not exploited in statistical analyses. Consequently, general-purpose bases such as wavelets are typically used to describe the main characteristics of the functional output. In this article we advocate for using information about the underlying mathematical model in order to choose a better basis for the functional output. To validate this choice, a simulation study is presented in the context of uncertainty analysis for a computer model from inverse Sturm-Liouville problems.     

Conditional VAR and Expected Shortfall: A New Functional Approach

We estimate two well-known risk measures, the value-at-risk (VAR) and the expected shortfall, conditionally to a functional variable (i.e., a random variable valued in some semi(pseudo)-metric space). We use nonparametric kernel estimation for constructing estimators of these quantities, under general dependence conditions. Theoretical properties are stated whereas practical aspects are illustrated on simulated data: nonlinear functional and GARCH(1,1) models. Some ideas on bandwidth selection using bootstrap are introduced. Finally, an empirical example is given through data of the S&P 500 time series.     

On asymptotic distribution of prediction in functional linear regression

There has been substantial recent attention on problems involving a functional linear regression model with scalar response. Among them, there have been few works dealing with asymptotic distribution of prediction in functional linear regression models. In recent literature, the centeral limit theorem for prediction has been discussed, but the proof and conditions under which the random bias terms for a fixed predictor converge to zero have been ignored so that the impact of these terms on the convergence of the prediction has not been well understood. Clarifying the proof and conditions under which the bias terms converge to zero, we show that the asymptotic distribution of the prediction is normal. Furthermore, we have derived those results related to other terms that already obtained by others, under milder conditions. Finally, we conduct a simulation study to investigate performance of the asymptotic distribution under various parameter settings.     

理性极限及其突破断想

思维具有历史的特征.而理性思维只是人类思维的一个阶段.因此,理性思维及与之相对应的理性哲学都无法超越自身的历史局限.理性哲学缺失与当下生活的对应的根本原因就在于理性极限.而理性的偏见与虚妄的悲剧价值预设正是这种极限的表现.打破理性极限的前提是将理性还原于历史中并具体列出突破理性哲学的叙述方案.     

不可分的直观——康德数学哲学浅析

在20世纪关于数学基础的争论当中,直觉主义流派往往将康德认作是其理论的鼻祖。然而,回到解析几何与微积分诞生不久的18世纪,康德所提出的“纯粹数学是如何成为可能的问题”,并不容易被已经惯用这两种数学工具的现代人所理解。本文拟通过对“这个问题是如何提出的、为了解决这个问题康德所提出的猜想、康德怎样证明这个猜想”三个方面的分析,来理解康德所提出的这个问题的含义。从中可以看到,“不可分的直观”成为康德数学哲学区别于其他数学哲学流派的核心概念。     

审判独立与抗诉监督制度的完善

司法公正需要审判独立和对审判权实施监督两方面的共同支撑。根据我国的政治体制和司法现状,检察权对审判权的监督必不可少,检察监督与审判独立之间既相互冲突又相互统一。在改造抗诉监督制度时,必须坚持“不损害独立审判权”的底线,把抗诉理由的标准由“确有错误”修改为“认为有错误”,把抗诉范围限定在“损害国家利益和社会公益”的案件和“适用法律错误”的案件,并对抗诉期间和抗诉次数作出严格限制以维护审判结果的终局性和权威性。