现代服务业"十一五"发展探究

“十一五”期间是我国进入经济结构战略性调整的重要时期。加快发展服务业,是国民经济持续快速健康发展的重要保障,是缓解就业压力的重要途径,也是提高人民生活水平的迫切需要。本文着重阐述了浙江“十一五”现代服务业发展的战略。     

近十五年西方历史学的新发展

20世纪后期,历史研究的重点继续是从分析的社会科学转移到更加强调文化因素的方面来,但是面临着迅速变化的世界局面,却具有其更加繁富且已改变了的焦点。历史学家并未受到后现代主义太多的影响,但关于应该如何重铸过去的问题的确更趋复杂了。在历史学思想与实践的重新定向过程中,人们更为深入地反思和质疑了历史作为引向今日西方文明的一种单向历程的观念,政治领域和阶级的概念扩大或改变了,妇女与性别的历史日益被纳入到通史系统中来。而在迫切需要另行考察现代性以及撰写全球史的状况面前,我们对于广泛跨文化的方法仍然缺乏综合的认知,有待于未来的进一步规划。     

基于ARM架构处理器的远程医疗监护系统

随着中国步入老龄化社会,对老年人的医疗护理工作越来越受到社会的重视。文章提出一种以ARM11架构CPU为核心的远程医疗监护系统,使用嵌入式linux操作系统进行全系统管理,可以通过因特网远程访问获取血压、脉搏、体温和实时视频等信息。经过实际测试,该系统完全达到设计要求,可以满足对监护人员的基本监护要求,大大减轻护理人员的工作量,具有较大的推广应用价值。     

A model of the Canadian global exchange rate: A test of the 1970s

This comment points out some methodological weaknesses in the Canadian global exchange rate model and the associated efficiency tests of Marwah and Bodkin. The model is found to be inadequate for policy analysis.     

Robust gene–environment interaction analysis using penalized trimmed regression

ABSTRACT

In biomedical and epidemiological studies, gene–environment (G–E) interactions have been shown to importantly contribute to the etiology and progression of many complex diseases. Most existing approaches for identifying G–E interactions are limited by the lack of robustness against outliers/contaminations in response and predictor spaces. In this study, we develop a novel robust G–E identification approach using the trimmed regression technique under joint modelling. A robust data-driven criterion and stability selection are adopted to determine the trimmed subset which is free from both vertical outliers and leverage points. An effective penalization approach is developed to identify important G–E interactions, respecting the ‘main effects, interactions’ hierarchical structure. Extensive simulations demonstrate the better performance of the proposed approach compared to multiple alternatives. Interesting findings with superior prediction accuracy and stability are observed in the analysis of The Cancer Genome Atlas data on cutaneous melanoma and breast invasive carcinoma.     

Approximating M/G/1 Waiting Time Tail Probabilities

Abstract

We propose a new approximation formula for the waiting time tail probability of the M/G/1 queue with FIFO discipline and unlimited waiting space. The aim is to address the difficulty of obtaining good estimates when the tail probability has non-exponential asymptotics. We show that the waiting time tail probability can be expressed in terms of the waiting time tail probability of a notional M/G/1 queue with truncated service time distribution plus the tail probability of an extreme order statistic. The Cramér–Lundberg approximation is applied to approximate the tail probability of the notional queue. In essence, our technique extends the applicability of the Cramér–Lundberg approximation to cases where the standard Lundberg condition does not hold. We propose a simple moment-based technique for estimating the parameters of the approximation; numerical results demonstrate that our approximation can yield very good estimates over the whole range of the argument.     

在线旅游的发展与旅游者消费行为的研究

在信息技术全球化的时代,互联网给旅游业带来了革命性的变化与发展,在线旅游随之蓬勃发展,深刻影响并改变着旅游消费者的决策行为和购买行为。如今随着3G技术的发展,带来了旅游无线互联网的时代,对旅游者消费行为产生更为巨大和积极的影响。     

An adaptive sampling scheme guided by BART—with an application to predict processor performance

The evaluation of new processor designs is an important issue in electrical and computer engineering. Architects use simulations to evaluate designs and to understand trade‐offs and interactions among design parameters. However, due to the lengthy simulation time and limited resources, it is often practically impossible to simulate a full factorial design space. Effective sampling methods and predictive models are required. In this paper, the authors propose an automated performance predictive approach which employs an adaptive sampling scheme that interactively works with the predictive model to select samples for simulation. These samples are then used to build Bayesian additive regression trees, which in turn are used to predict the whole design space. Both real data analysis and simulation studies show that the method is effective in that, though sampling at very few design points, it generates highly accurate predictions on the unsampled points. Furthermore, the proposed model provides quantitative interpretation tools with which investigators can efficiently tune design parameters in order to improve processor performance. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 136–152; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

Non-linear models 1

This is the first application of a new method for testing stationary random point processes. Consider the class of all stationary ergodic point processes on the real line with arbitrary dependences among the inter–point distances (spacing).The hypothesis is :The observed process φ is a homogeneous Poisson process or more (resp.less) regular than a Poisson process.The sample is the vector of the first n points t₁, …,t_n.There is a close relation between our method for testing and queueing theory: For finding an appropriate test statistic, we observe the behaviour of a single server queue with the input φ.A table of critical values is given.