展望“十二五”：我国经济发展方式的转型

在分析当前世界经济体系和反思该背景下我国经济发展方式的基础上，全面阐述我国经济发展方式转变的历史、内容和方向，以及存在的问题和转变的动力。重点指出，“十二五”要以加快转变经济发展方式为主线，贯穿经济社会发展全过程和各个领域，确保转变经济发展方式取得实质性的进展，要坚持把改革开放作为加快转变经济发展方式的强大动力，坚定推进经济、政治、文化、社会等领域的改革，加快构建有利于科学发展的体制机制。     

The economic costs of US stock mispricing

The USAGE model for the United States is used to quantify economic costs due to stock mispricing, made operational by shocking Tobin's q. The simulations quantify a potentially large impact even in the most favorable environment, where export demand holds up, and, the dollar is pro-cyclical. A two-year investment boom in two sectors increases consumption by a Net Present Value (NPV) amount of nearly one per cent, due to a positive investment externality onto the US terms of trade. If the investment is wasted, however, the consumption loss is nearly one-half of a per cent. A 5-year ‘capital strike’ across the whole economy subsequent to the boom - mimicking financial distress from a burst bubble - shaves around 10 per cent off consumption. Given these significant costs associated with “boom” and “bust” equity markets, we consider some, policy options that might result in greater stability in these markets.     

Efficient estimation for the proportional hazards model with competing risks and current status data

The proportional hazards model is the most commonly used model in regression analysis of failure time data and has been discussed by many authors under various situations (Kalbfleisch & Prentice, 2002. The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data, Wiley, New York). This paper considers the fitting of the model to current status data when there exist competing risks, which often occurs in, for example, medical studies. The maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters are derived and their consistency and convergence rate are established. Also we show that the estimates of regression coefficients are efficient and have asymptotically normal distributions. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite sample properties of the estimates and an illustrative example is provided. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

The relevance of thinking-by-analogy for investors’ willingness-to-pay: An experimental study

People tend to think by analogies. We investigate whether thinking-by-analogy matters for investors’ willingness-to-pay for a risky asset in a laboratory experiment. We find that thinking-by-analogy has a strong influence when the assets in question have similar (but not identical) payoffs. The hypothesis of thinking-by-analogy or coarse thinking clearly outperforms other hypotheses including the hypothesis of arbitrage-free or rational pricing. When the similarity between the payoffs is reduced, the risk neutral and risk averse hypotheses outperform the hypothesis of thinking-by-analogy. Regardless of the similarity between the payoffs, the arbitrage-free or rational pricing remains the hypothesis with the worst performance.     

Asymptotic properties of the MAMSE adaptive likelihood weights

The weighted likelihood is a generalization of the likelihood designed to borrow strength from similar populations while making minimal assumptions. If the weights are properly chosen, the maximum weighted likelihood estimate may perform better than the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). In a previous article, the minimum averaged mean squared error (MAMSE) weights are proposed and simulations show that they allow to outperform the MLE in many cases. In this paper, we study the asymptotic properties of the MAMSE weights. In particular, we prove that the MAMSE-weighted mixture of empirical distribution functions converges uniformly to the target distribution and that the maximum weighted likelihood estimate is strongly consistent. A short simulation illustrates the use of bootstrap in this context.     

Data depth‐based nonparametric scale tests

Liu and Singh (1993, 2006) introduced a depth‐based d‐variate extension of the nonparametric two sample scale test of Siegel and Tukey (1960). Liu and Singh (2006) generalized this depth‐based test for scale homogeneity of k ≥ 2 multivariate populations. Motivated by the work of Gastwirth (1965), we propose k sample percentile modifications of Liu and Singh's proposals. The test statistic is shown to be asymptotically normal when k = 2, and compares favorably with Liu and Singh (2006) if the underlying distributions are either symmetric with light tails or asymmetric. In the case of skewed distributions considered in this paper the power of the proposed tests can attain twice the power of the Liu‐Singh test for d ≥ 1. Finally, in the k‐sample case, it is shown that the asymptotic distribution of the proposed percentile modified Kruskal‐Wallis type test is χ² with k ? 1 degrees of freedom. Power properties of this k‐sample test are similar to those for the proposed two sample one. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 356–369; 2011 © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

Statistical comparisons of methods for interpolating the output of a numerical air quality model

This paper compares Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) outputs at multiple resolutions by interpolating from coarse resolution to fine resolution and analyzing the interpolation difference. Spatial variograms provide a convenient way to investigate the spatial character of interpolation differences and, importantly, to distinguish between naive (nearest neighbor) interpolation and bilinear interpolation, which takes a weighted average of four neighboring cells. For example, when the higher resolution is three times the lower, the variogram of the difference between naive interpolation of the lower resolution output and the higher resolution output shows a depression at every third lag. This phenomenon is related to the blocky nature of naive interpolation and demonstrates the inferiority of naive interpolation to bilinear interpolation in a way that pixelwise comparisons cannot. Theoretical investigations show when one can expect to observe this periodic depression in the variogram of interpolation differences. Naive interpolation is in fact used widely in a number of settings; our results suggest that it should be routinely replaced by bilinear interpolation.     

Group living decisions as youths transition to adulthood

This study follows teens through young adulthood as they transition to independent living. We focus on a little studied issue: why some youths live in groups rather than alone or with parents. This choice is important because the size of the group has a substantial impact on the demand for dwelling units; the more youths per dwelling the lower is aggregate demand and the greater is population density. Our study also adds to the knowledge of which factors influence youths' choice of destination as they leave the parental home. The empirical testing uses a discrete hazard model within a multinomial logit framework to allow for more than one possible state transition. We find that economic variables have little impact on the decision of whether to exit to a large versus a small group, while socio-demographic variables matter. We also test a new push-pull hypothesis and find that the pull of economic variables on the probability of exiting the parental home increases as youths reach their mid to late twenties. Received: 15 July 1999/Accepted: 15 May 2000     

The association between the frequency of wife assault and marital dissolution in Canada

A strong positive association between wife abuse in the first marriage and the probability of that marriage ending is documented and investigated using the 1993 Violence Against Women survey (VAWS) for Canada and controlling for the endogeneity of abuse. A sensitivity analysis suggests that systematic reporting differences are not likely to account for the findings. Received: 2 June 1999/Accepted: 13 June 2000     

A model of endogenous divorce and endogenous fertility

This paper examines the interaction between decisions on divorce and fertility. The analysis generates two major implications. Firstly, it complements the existing literature on endogenous fertility to explain why population growth and economic growth can be negatively correlated after an economy develops to a certain level. Secondly, it indicates that economic development leads to a simultaneous increase in divorce rates and decrease in fertility rates. Received: 05 February 1999/Accepted: 20 December 1999