Risk aggregation with dependence and overdispersion based on the compound Poisson INAR(1) process

Abstract

This paper considers an extension of the classical discrete time risk model for which the claim numbers are assumed to be temporal dependence and overdispersion. The risk model proposed is based on the first-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process with discrete compound Poisson distributed innovations. The explicit expression for the moment generating function of the discounted aggregate claim amount is derived. Some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the impacts of dependence and overdispersion on related quantities such as the stop-loss premium, the value at risk and the tail value at risk.     

Parameter estimation of Lindley step stress model with independent competing risk under type 1 censoring

Abstract

In literature, Lindley distribution is considered as an alternative to exponential distribution to fit lifetime data. In the present work, a Lindley step-stress model with independent causes of failure is proposed. An algorithm to generate random samples from the proposed model under type 1 censoring scheme is developed. Point and interval estimation of the model parameters is carried out using maximum likelihood method and percentile bootstrap approach. To understand the effectiveness of the resulting estimates, numerical illustration is provided based on simulated and real-life data sets.     

A new look at Markov processes of G/M/1-type

We present a new method for deriving the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov process of G/M/1-type in continuous-time, by deriving and making use of a new representation for each element of the rate matrices contained in these distributions. This method can also be modified to derive the Laplace transform of each transition function associated with Markov processes of G/M/1-type.     

中国宏观经济波动源的识别与原因分析

为了识别驱动中国宏观经济周期波动性的影响因素,依据中国经济的特殊性,基于1978-2014年42个宏观经济变量的样本数据集构建动态因子模型进行实证分析。研究发现,驱动中国宏观经济波动主要因素有5个潜在宏观因子,其中前四个主要因子分别揭示了驱动中国经济周期波动的主要波动源,它们分别为工业产出因子、外商直接投资(FDI)因子、设备利用率因子和全要素生产率因子。另外,讨论了熨平经济周期性波动的经济政策选择。     

“海丝”战略背景下闽台海洋经济融合发展研究

党中央在新时期作出的共建21世纪海上丝绸之路的战略决策,对深化区域合作、推动全球经济发展具有重大的影响,更为闽台海洋经济融合发展提供了难得机遇。系统梳理和回顾改革开放以来闽台海洋经济合作的历程及成效,分析21世纪海上丝绸之路战略背景下闽台海洋经济融合发展的新机遇,提出闽台两地应充分发挥优势互补,坚持互利共赢原则,全面加强海洋渔业、航港造船产业、海洋科技产业和海洋观光游憩业的融合发展,共同推动闽台海洋开发合作向纵深发展。     

高校图书馆与新时期信息素质教育

信息是当今社会最重要的资源之一,人们对信息的需求正呈现出多层次、多样化的形式。在新的信息环境下,高校图书馆应与时俱进地积极转变观念,拓展教学内容,规范相关要求,在信息素质教育中作出突出的贡献。     

美华文学中的文化意象初探

北美新华文文学,作为具有特定时空意义和文化内蕴的文学类型,创造出了一系列相互关联、自成体系的意象。这些意象包含有文学和文化两方面的内涵,因而可称作“文学性的文化意象”,此种意象的营造应该是北美新华文文学的重要诗学特征。     

L2句子加工心理机制的ERPs研究及问题思考

国内外对L2句子加工的研究存在着较大区别。国外偏重于探讨句子加工的心理机制本身,而国内不仅探讨句子加工的心理机制本身,而且还注重探讨句子加工的心理机制所说明的问题,分析L2句子加工是否接近或相似于L1句子加工。目前,该领域的研究主要存在三种主要流派:模块说、交互说和平行说。多数学者认为L2句子加工是句法和语义加工交织的过程,即多数人接受了交互说。少数学者认为语义加工优先于句法加工。至于平行说,最近L2句子加工研究鲜有成果支持此理论。     

A general central limit theorem and a subsampling variance estimator for α‐mixing point processes

We establish a central limit theorem for multivariate summary statistics of nonstationary α‐mixing spatial point processes and a subsampling estimator of the covariance matrix of such statistics. The central limit theorem is crucial for establishing asymptotic properties of estimators in statistics for spatial point processes. The covariance matrix subsampling estimator is flexible and model free. It is needed, for example, to construct confidence intervals and ellipsoids based on asymptotic normality of estimators. We also provide a simulation study investigating an application of our results to estimating functions.     

Role of Leaders as Agents of Negotiation for Counterbalancing Cultural Dissonance in the Middle East and North Africa Region

This study provides a unique perspective in the field of cross-cultural management by exploring the relationship between “cultural dissonance”—the gap between cultural values and actual practice—and effective leadership attributes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Incorporating cultural dissonance into implicit leadership theory, the study uses measurements of dissonance on nine cultural dimensions to identify particular leadership preferences in seven MENA countries. The overall findings suggest that societies prefer leaders who counterbalance cultural dissonance by allowing space for negotiations by members of society to reduce disparities between cultural values—“the way things should be”—and actual practices—“the way things are.” The greater the disparity between cultural values and practices, the greater the citizens' desire that leaders act as agents of change by creating space for negotiation.