A bayesian estimator for the dependence function of a bivariate extreme‐value distribution

Any continuous bivariate distribution can be expressed in terms of its margins and a unique copula. In the case of extreme‐value distributions, the copula is characterized by a dependence function while each margin depends on three parameters. The authors propose a Bayesian approach for the simultaneous estimation of the dependence function and the parameters defining the margins. They describe a nonparametric model for the dependence function and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation of the Bayesian estimator. They show through simulations that their estimator has a smaller mean integrated squared error than classical nonparametric estimators, especially in small samples. They illustrate their approach on a hydrological data set.     

近代新式中国史撰述的开端——论清末中国历史教科书的形式与特点

清末中国历史教科书的编纂与中国通史的撰述,因为编撰性质不同而不应将两者完全等同一致。关注中国历史教科书的编纂与中国通史的撰述之特点及其相互关系,更可得见当时新旧史学转换的种种特征在历史撰述中的具体表现。清末中国历史教科书的编纂通常被认为是开始使用了章节体,其实仍以使用纪事本末体为主,编纂形式新意无多,而其划分历史阶段的分期观念,以及受此影响而在历史叙事方式等方面的改变,其学术意义则不可忽视。清末出现的多种中国历史教科书实际上成为近代新式中国史撰述的开端。     

延安时期的中国古代史研究

延安时期的中国古代史研究在是在相对稳定的政治环境和较为自由的学术氛围下进行的。当时学者坚持以唯物史观为指导,采用了丰富多样的历史研究手段,在立足史料,实事求是的基础上,对中国古代史上一些重大历史问题,从理论高度进行了系统的分析。其研究成果曾产生了重要的影响。但由于过分强调史学研究为现实服务,因而其科学性便受到损害,甚至在个别问题上出现了非历史主义的倾向。     

水资源跨流域配置的经济学分析

由于我国水资源空间分布不均匀的突出特点 ,大型跨流域调水工程已经成为我国国民经济可持续发展的重要支撑。文章从水资源的经济特点出发 ,结合南水北调中线工程 ,对水资源跨流域配置的市场供求、成本收益等资源经济学问题进行了分析 ,并对社会主义市场经济条件下水资源跨流域配置的利益分配机制进行了探讨     

A note on LeCam’s bound for the distance between the Poisson binomial and the Poisson distribution

n possibly different success probabilities p ₁, p ₂, ..., p _n is frequently approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter λ = p ₁ + p ₂ + ... + p _n . LeCam's bound p ² ₁ + p ² ₂ + ... + p _n ² for the total variation distance between both distributions is particularly useful provided the success probabilities are small. The paper presents an improved version of LeCam's bound if a generalized d-dimensional Poisson binomial distribution is to be approximated by a compound Poisson distribution. Received: May 10, 2000; revised version: January 15, 2001     

随机变量投影的一种应用

利用随机变量的投影关系,定义了偏方差矩阵,从而导出了逆方差阵元素的一种形式在随机变量是正态的条件,它为判别条件独立性有方便的操作办法。     

用Powell法求颗粒尺寸分布

本文用最优化理论中的Powell直接法求激光粒度仪中的颗粒尺寸分布。数值模拟及对标准颗粒的实测表明,该算法的计算精度高,能较好地解决粒度仪通常存在的计算结果随初始设定值变化的多值性问题。     

In Memoriam: Emeritus Professor Henry Oliver Lancaster, AO FAA 1 February 1913 – 2 December 2001

The death, in Sydney, of Oliver Lancaster marks the end of an era in the histories of the Statistical Society of Australia, which (in its previous existence as the Statistical Society of New South Wales) he helped found in 1947, and of the Australian Journal of Statistics of which he was founding editor (1959–1971). Oliver Lancaster was Foundation Professor of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Sydney (1959–1978), where he spent his life as student and academic. During his academic career, he achieved scholarly distinction in at least four fields: mathematical statistics, medical and public health statistics, the history of medicine and of statistics, and statistical bibliography. With E.J.G. Pitman (1897–1993), M.H. Belz (1897–1975), E.A. Cornish (1909–1973) and P.A.P. Moran (1917–1988) he was part of a cohort of renowned Australian mathematical statisticians who laid the foundation of the glory days of Australian mathematical statistics. This obituary and tribute focuses on some of these aspects, within a broader historical picture.     

Confidence Intervals for Current Status Data

Abstract.  The likelihood ratio statistic for testing pointwise hypotheses about the survival time distribution in the current status model can be inverted to yield confidence intervals (CIs). One advantage of this procedure is that CIs can be formed without estimating the unknown parameters that figure in the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the distribution function. We discuss the likelihood ratio-based CIs for the distribution function and the quantile function and compare these intervals to several different intervals based on the MLE. The quantiles of the limiting distribution of the MLE are estimated using various methods including parametric fitting, kernel smoothing and subsampling techniques. Comparisons are carried out both for simulated data and on a data set involving time to immunization against rubella. The comparisons indicate that the likelihood ratio-based intervals are preferable from several perspectives.     

举证责任分配理论之重构

从法律解释学的角度重新分析举证责任分配的本质。分析了举证责任分配的理论依据,阐释举证责任分配的理由;运用法律行为的相关理论证明举证责任分配的实体法解释的本质;从法律解释学的角度重新构造了举证责任分配。