“说炜烨而谲诳”——论刘勰对陆机《文赋》的一个错误批评

战国时期产生了一种生动活泼的口头文体形式——说,其文体寓说理于叙事之中,具有形象性、传奇性和虚构性等特点。它是中国后世小说创作的重要来源之一。陆机在《文赋》中明确把说定为一种文体,并用炜烨与谲诳来概括它。所谓炜烨,即生动性和形象性;谲诳,即传奇性和虚构性。陆机对这些特征的肯定,正与魏晋时期文学创作意识尤其是小说创作的兴盛有密切关联。而刘勰在《文心雕龙》中,以正统儒家的义贞和忠信为法斧,对陆机的命题进行了歪曲的否定。刘勰对陆机的这一粗暴悖理的批评,反映了他正统的儒家意识以及否定小说创作的保守的文学立场。事实上,陆机的说炜烨而谲诳,在中国小说批评史上占有重要位置,而《文心雕龙》也并非绝对完满、完全公正的超越性体系,它也存在自己的局限和谬误。     

廪君巴人“武落钟离山”新考

廪君巴人最早居住的武落钟离山,又名难留山。有些学者认为湖北长阳佷山即巴人发源地武落钟离山。本文从山名、方位、难留山、赤黑二穴、阴阳石、文化遗址、出土文物多方面论证了此观点不能成立。然后,从地名、地貌、民俗、姓氏、县志、古文献、古地图、考古发现等,论证了长阳西部今柳山为武落钟离山所在地。     

An empirical likelihood goodness-of-fit test for time series

Summary. Standard goodness-of-fit tests for a parametric regression model against a series of nonparametric alternatives are based on residuals arising from a fitted model. When a parametric regression model is compared with a nonparametric model, goodness-of-fit testing can be naturally approached by evaluating the likelihood of the parametric model within a nonparametric framework. We employ the empirical likelihood for an α -mixing process to formulate a test statistic that measures the goodness of fit of a parametric regression model. The technique is based on a comparison with kernel smoothing estimators. The empirical likelihood formulation of the test has two attractive features. One is its automatic consideration of the variation that is associated with the nonparametric fit due to empirical likelihood's ability to Studentize internally. The other is that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is free of unknown parameters, avoiding plug-in estimation. We apply the test to a discretized diffusion model which has recently been considered in financial market analysis.     

Optimal designs for generalized linear models

Summary This paper solves some D-optimal design problems for certain Generalized Linear Models where the mean depends on two parameters and two explanatory variables. In all of the cases considered the support point of the optimal designs are found to be independent of the unknown parameters. While in some cases the optimal design measures are given by two points with equal weights, in others the support is given by three point with weights depending on the unknown parameters, hence the designs are locally optimal in general. Empirical results on the efficiency of the locally optimal designs are also given. Some of the designs found can also be used for planning D-optimal experiments for the normal linear model, where the mean must be positive. This research was carried out in part at University College, London as an M.Sc. project. Thanks are due to Prof. I. Ford (University of Glasgow) and Prof. A. Giovagnoli (University of Perugia) for their valuable suggestions and critical observations.     

《史记》与《淮南子》

《淮南子》是汉代黄老道家著作，它对《史记》的影响主 要在思想方面。《淮南子》在构建天人古今知识体系、对待先秦诸子的思想方法、倡导法与 时变、礼与俗化、主张审微、重时等一系列问题上，给《史记》以深刻启示。《淮南子·天 文训》与《史记·天官书》之间也存在着学术联系。     

Maximum Likelihood Inference for Log-linear Models Subject to Constraints of Double Monotone Dependence

To model an hypothesis of double monotone dependence between two ordinal categorical variables A and B usually a set of symmetric odds ratios defined on the joint probability function is subject to linear inequality constraints. Conversely in this paper two sets of asymmetric odds ratios defined, respectively, on the conditional distributions of A given B and on the conditional distributions of B given A are subject to linear inequality constraints. If the joint probabilities are parameterized by a saturated log-linear model, these constraints are nonlinear inequality constraints on the log-linear parameters. The problem here considered is a non-standard one both for the presence of nonlinear inequality constraints and for the fact that the number of these constraints is greater than the number of the parameters of the saturated log-linear model.This work has been supported by the COFIN 2002 project, references 2002133957_002, 2002133957_004. Preliminary findings have been presented at SIS (Società Italiana di Statistica) Annual Meeting, Bari, 2004.     

在坚守与转换中思索人性:刘庆邦小说的空间书写

刘庆邦着眼于我国城乡社会结构的变迁,多年来坚持书写农村题材和普通矿工的平凡生活,新世纪以来创作的“保姆在北京”系列小说则将创作视点转移至进城打工的保姆群体,不变的是他对底层百姓的人道主义关怀及对人性问题的深入思索。不论是城乡交叉地带的煤矿叙事所呈现出的物理空间、心理空间和社会空间,还是“保姆在北京”系列小说中空间权力对进城乡下女性的规约与限制,都表现出刘庆邦小说明显的空间意识,也体现了他小说创作的独特价值。     

刘沅易道会通思想研究

刘沅是清代巴蜀地区的重要学者,毕生致力于构建以易学为核心、 以儒学为本宗、 儒释道相互融通的恢弘学术体系,易学与道教的思想文化会通就是其中的重要组成部分.刘沅敏锐地洞悉到"穷理尽性"是贯通儒道的基本逻辑,在此基础上,他以《周易》为津梁,通过"先后天之心""取坎填离"和"存心养性""存神养气"两组概念的对比分析,研究儒道之间的互动、融合,推动了易道会通思想的进一步发展.     

Spatial variation in risk of disease: a nonparametric binary regression approach

A common problem in environmental epidemiology is the estimation and mapping of spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper we analyse data from the Walsall District Health Authority, UK, concerning the spatial distributions of cancer cases compared with controls sampled from the population register. We formulate the risk estimation problem as a nonparametric binary regression problem and consider two different methods of estimation. The first uses a standard kernel method with a cross-validation criterion for choosing the associated bandwidth parameter. The second uses the framework of the generalized additive model (GAM) which has the advantage that it can allow for additional explanatory variables, but is computationally more demanding. For the Walsall data, we obtain similar results using either the kernel method with controls stratified by age and sex to match the age–sex distribution of the cases or the GAM method with random controls but incorporating age and sex as additional explanatory variables. For cancers of the lung or stomach, the analysis shows highly statistically significant spatial variation in risk. For the less common cancers of the pancreas, the spatial variation in risk is not statistically significant.     

Finite mixture models with concomitant information: assessing diagnostic criteria for diabetes

The World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria for diabetes mellitus were determined in part by evidence that in some populations the plasma glucose level 2 h after an oral glucose load is a mixture of two distinct distributions. We present a finite mixture model that allows the two component densities to be generalized linear models and the mixture probability to be a logistic regression model. The model allows us to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic criteria as a function of covariates and to estimate them in the absence of an external standard. Sensitivity is the probability that a test indicates disease conditionally on disease being present. Specificity is the probability that a test indicates no disease conditionally on no disease being present. We obtained maximum likelihood estimates via the EM algorithm and derived the standard errors from the information matrix and by the bootstrap. In the application to data from the diabetes in Egypt project a two-component mixture model fits well and the two components are interpreted as normal and diabetes. The means and variances are similar to results found in other populations. The minimum misclassification cutpoints decrease with age, are lower in urban areas and are higher in rural areas than the 200 mg dl^-1 cutpoint recommended by the WHO. These differences are modest and our results generally support the WHO criterion. Our methods allow the direct inclusion of concomitant data whereas past analyses were based on partitioning the data.