Generalized Confidence Interval Estimation for the Difference in Paired Areas Under the ROC Curves in the Absence of a Gold Standard

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves can be used to assess the accuracy of tests measured on ordinal or continuous scales. The most commonly used measure for the overall diagnostic accuracy of diagnostic tests is the area under the ROC curve (AUC). A gold standard (GS) test on the true disease status is required to estimate the AUC. However, a GS test may be too expensive or infeasible. In many medical researches, the true disease status of the subjects may remain unknown. Under the normality assumption on test results from each disease group of subjects, we propose a heuristic method of estimating confidence intervals for the difference in paired AUCs of two diagnostic tests in the absence of a GS reference. This heuristic method is a three-stage method by combining the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, bootstrap method, and an estimation based on asymptotic generalized pivotal quantities (GPQs) to construct generalized confidence intervals for the difference in paired AUCs in the absence of a GS. Simulation results show that the proposed interval estimation procedure yields satisfactory coverage probabilities and expected interval lengths. The numerical example using a published dataset illustrates the proposed method.     

Testing the difference of two exponential means using generalized p-values

There are no exact fixed-level tests for testing the null hypothesis that the difference of two exponential means is less than or equal to a prespecified value θ₀. For this testing problem, there are several approximate testing procedures available in the literature. Using an extended definition of p-values, Tsui and Weerahandi (1989) gave an exact significance test for this testing problem. In this paper, the performance of that procedure is investigated and is compared with approximate procedures. A size and power comparison is carried out using a simulation study. Its findings show that the test based on the generalized p-value guarantees the intended size and that it is either as good as or outperforms approximate procedures available in the literature, both in power and in size.     

On univariate and bivariate generalized gamma convolutions

This paper has two parts. In the first part some results for generalized gamma convolutions (GGCs) are reviewed. A GGC is a limit distribution for sums of independent gamma variables. In the second part, bivariate gamma distributions and bivariate GGCs are considered. New bivariate gamma distributions are derived from shot-noise models. The remarkable property hyperbolic complete monotonicity (HCM) for a function is considered both in the univariate case and in the bivariate case.     

Smoothing parameter selection methods for nonparametric regression with spatially correlated errors

When spatial data are correlated, currently available data‐driven smoothing parameter selection methods for nonparametric regression will often fail to provide useful results. The authors propose a method that adjusts the generalized cross‐validation criterion for the effect of spatial correlation in the case of bivariate local polynomial regression. Their approach uses a pilot fit to the data and the estimation of a parametric covariance model. The method is easy to implement and leads to improved smoothing parameter selection, even when the covariance model is misspecified. The methodology is illustrated using water chemistry data collected in a survey of lakes in the Northeastern United States.     

Parameter estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution—Part I

The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) has been widely used in the extreme value framework. The success of the GPD when applied to real data sets depends substantially on the parameter estimation process. Several methods exist in the literature for estimating the GPD parameters. Mostly, the estimation is performed by maximum likelihood (ML). Alternatively, the probability weighted moments (PWM) and the method of moments (MOM) are often used, especially when the sample sizes are small. Although these three approaches are the most common and quite useful in many situations, their extensive use is also due to the lack of knowledge about other estimation methods. Actually, many other methods, besides the ones mentioned above, exist in the extreme value and hydrological literatures and as such are not widely known to practitioners in other areas. This paper is the first one of two papers that aim to fill in this gap. We shall extensively review some of the methods used for estimating the GPD parameters, focusing on those that can be applied in practical situations in a quite simple and straightforward manner.     

A Universal QQ-Plot for Continuous Non-homogeneous Populations

This article presents a universal quantile-quantile (QQ) plot that may be used to assess the fit of a family of absolutely continuous distribution functions in a possibly non-homogeneous population. This plot is more general than probability plotting papers because it may be used for distributions having more than two parameters. It is also more general than standard quantile-quantile plots because it may be used for families of not-necessarily identical distributions. In particular, the universal QQ plot may be used in the context of non-homogeneous Poisson processes, generalized linear models, and other general models.     

Generalized blockmodeling of valued networks

The paper presents several approaches to generalized blockmodeling of valued networks, where values of the ties are assumed to be measured on at least interval scale. The first approach is a straightforward generalization of the generalized blockmodeling of binary networks [Doreian, P., Batagelj, V., Ferligoj, A., 2005. Generalized Blockmodeling. Cambridge University Press, New York.] to valued blockmodeling. The second approach is homogeneity blockmodeling. The basic idea of homogeneity blockmodeling is that the inconsistency of an empirical block with its ideal block can be measured by within block variability of appropriate values. New ideal blocks appropriate for blockmodeling of valued networks are presented together with definitions of their block inconsistencies.     

Randomization of neighbour balanced generalized Youden designs

If a crossover design with more than two treatments is carryover balanced, then the usual randomization of experimental units and periods would destroy the neighbour structure of the design. As an alternative, Bailey [1985. Restricted randomization for neighbour-balanced designs. Statist. Decisions Suppl. 2, 237–248] considered randomization of experimental units and of treatment labels, which leaves the neighbour structure intact. She has shown that, if there are no carryover effects, this randomization validates the row–column model, provided the starting design is a generalized Latin square. We extend this result to generalized Youden designs where either the number of experimental units is a multiple of the number of treatments or the number of periods is equal to the number of treatments. For the situation when there are carryover effects we show for so-called totally balanced designs that the variance of the estimates of treatment differences does not change in the presence of carryover effects, while the estimated variance of this estimate becomes conservative.     

Development and comparative study of two near-exact approximations to the distribution of the product of an odd number of independent Beta random variables

Using the concept of near-exact approximation to a distribution we developed two different near-exact approximations to the distribution of the product of an odd number of particular independent Beta random variables (r.v.'s). One of them is a particular generalized near-integer Gamma (GNIG) distribution and the other is a mixture of two GNIG distributions. These near-exact distributions are mostly adequate to be used as a basis for approximations of distributions of several statistics used in multivariate analysis. By factoring the characteristic function (c.f.) of the logarithm of the product of the Beta r.v.'s, and then replacing a suitably chosen factor of that c.f. by an adequate asymptotic result it is possible to obtain what we call a near-exact c.f., which gives rise to the near-exact approximation to the exact distribution. Depending on the asymptotic result used to replace the chosen parts of the c.f., one may obtain different near-exact approximations. Moments from the two near-exact approximations developed are compared with the exact ones. The two approximations are also compared with each other, namely in terms of moments and quantiles.     

Determining the mean-variance relationship in generalized linear models—A parametric robust way

This article introduces a parametric robust way of determining the mean-variance relationship in the setting of generalized linear models. More specifically, the normal likelihood is properly amended to become asymptotically valid even if normality fails. Consequently, legitimate inference for the parametric relationship between mean and variance could be derived under model misspecification. More details are given to the scenario when the variance is proportional to an unknown power of the mean function. The efficacy of the novel technique is demonstrated via simulations and the analysis of two real data sets.