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91.
伊拉克战争为公众参与中国中东外交政策制定提供了机会,参与群体前所未有地扩大,参与途径全面拓展,不同意见的表达开始涌现,公众主动对外交建言献策,开始有意施加民意压力。更为重要的是,公众意见开始成为外交部门对外传播国家主张的背景支撑和参考因素。公众因素开始成为中国制定中东外交决策时需要考虑的重要参数之一,但其影响力有限,更多是参考和制约作用,其影响正处于发展之中。 相似文献
92.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(9):1155-1167
The two parametric distribution functions appearing in the extreme-value theory – the generalized extreme-value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution – have log-concave densities if the extreme-value index γ∈[?1, 0]. Replacing the order statistics in tail-index estimators by their corresponding quantiles from the distribution function that is based on the estimated log-concave density ? f n leads to novel smooth quantile and tail-index estimators. These new estimators aim at estimating the tail index especially in small samples. Acting as a smoother of the empirical distribution function, the log-concave distribution function estimator reduces estimation variability to a much greater extent than it introduces bias. As a consequence, Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the smoothed version of the estimators are well superior to their non-smoothed counterparts, in terms of mean-squared error. 相似文献
93.
The bumpy road to ‘becoming’: capturing the stories that teenage mothers told about their journey into motherhood
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Maggie Leese 《Child & Family Social Work》2016,21(4):521-529
Understanding the experience of women who become mothers during their teenage years is central to ensuring that the support that is offered is appropriate to meet their needs. This paper reports on a small part of a larger ethnographic study that captured the lived experience of young mothers who were between the ages of 16 and 19 years that potentially typifies and illuminates the experiences of young women who become mothers in their teenage years. By collecting data from narrative interviews as well as participant and non‐participant observations over an extended period of time it was possible to identify how the young women experienced a range of difficulties as they made their transition into motherhood. Drawing on the findings, this paper argues that this transition for teenage mothers can be significantly different from the experience of older mothers, and it identifies the importance of appropriate support to mediate the challenges that they face. Understanding the young women's journey to ‘becoming’ is critical when planning services because if their experience of support is negative, it can lead to increased levels of maternal stress and reluctance to engage with support services. 相似文献
94.
95.
The paper examines changes in the influence of family background, including socioeconomic and social background variables on educational attainment in Australia for cohorts born between 1890 and 1982. We test hypotheses from modernization theory on sibling data using random effects models and find: (i) substantial declines in the influence of family background on educational attainment (indicated by the sibling intraclass correlations); (ii) declines in the effects of both economic and cultural socioeconomic background variables; (iii) changes in the effects of some social background variables (e.g., family size); (iv) and declines in the extent that socioeconomic and social background factors account for variation in educational attainment. Unmeasured family background factors are more important, and proportionally increasingly so, for educational attainment than the measured socioeconomic and social background factors analyzed. Fixed effects models showed steeper declines in the effects of socioeconomic background variables than in standard analyses suggesting that unmeasured family factors associated with socioeconomic background obscure the full extent of the decline. 相似文献
96.
In urban areas, the inequitable distribution of transit systems and services has been shown to reproduce safety and environmental risks – potentially exacerbating preexisting inequities. Thus, how vulnerable populations access and utilize public transportation is of critical concern to urban scholars. This paper utilizes focus group data to explore how transit-dependent (particularly low-income) riders engage with the public transit system in Portland, Oregon. We illustrate specific ways in which transit-dependent riders experience marginalization and exclusion. We find that certain groups, particularly mothers with young children and those with disabilities are not well served by a public infrastructure oriented toward an ‘ideal rider’ who is an economically stable, able-bodied, white, male commuter. We conclude that a public infrastructure meant to serve all riders equitably, yet which fails to consider the unique experiences of marginalized transit users risks further amplifying existing social vulnerabilities and reinforcing gender, racial, and class inequalities. 相似文献
97.
《当代青年研究》2012,(3)
伴随社会经济的迅猛发展和城市化步伐的加快,生态破坏、环境污染等问题日益加剧。生物界自然平衡状态的打破导致近年来我国各类公共卫生危机频发,处于公共卫生事件的高发期,“90后”作为一个特殊的青少年群体,由于其身心机能发育尚未成熟,不但是此类事件中最主要的易感人群,更容易产生各类心理障碍与行为问题。现代健康观念的树立和综合健康素养的提升在这一阶段尤为关键。研究发现,“90后”青少年的健康观念趋于科学理性,健康自我管理能力和习惯养成有待提升:对健康危机的忧患意识较强,危机状态下的心理承受能力较弱;具备一定的公民责任意识和行为自律意识,但面对一些较为复杂的社会现象,现代法制观念和人文关怀意识仍有所欠缺 相似文献
98.
Ioannis Vrontos 《Journal of applied statistics》2012,39(6):1295-1321
Extending previous work on hedge fund return predictability, this paper introduces the idea of modelling the conditional distribution of hedge fund returns using Student's t full-factor multivariate GARCH models. This class of models takes into account the stylized facts of hedge fund return series, that is, heteroskedasticity, fat tails and deviations from normality. For the proposed class of multivariate predictive regression models, we derive analytic expressions for the score and the Hessian matrix, which can be used within classical and Bayesian inferential procedures to estimate the model parameters, as well as to compare different predictive regression models. We propose a Bayesian approach to model comparison which provides posterior probabilities for various predictive models that can be used for model averaging. Our empirical application indicates that accounting for fat tails and time-varying covariances/correlations provides a more appropriate modelling approach of the underlying dynamics of financial series and improves our ability to predict hedge fund returns. 相似文献
99.
吴柏松 《辽宁医学院学报(社会科学版)》2014,(3):58-60
随着现代医学的发展,洁净手术部成为各手术学科建设与发展的重要前提与支柱,对原有手术室功能进行改造势在必行。为了实现医院洁净手术部向信息化、智能化、集约化发展,从洁净手术部的选址、功能等方面介绍了当前省内部分二级以上医疗单位洁净手术室建设的新进展,总结近年来在洁净手术室规划、建设过程中的经验,为现代医院基建工程管理提供借鉴,保障医院医疗、教学、科研工作的顺利开展。 相似文献
100.
谭旭虎 《中南大学学报(社会科学版)》2014,(5)
美国著名汉学家史景迁(Jonathan D. Spence)从文化认知、文化比较的研究视域出发,对孔子进行了跨文化解读与传播。在史景迁“去偶像化”的观照方式下,孔子被解码、建构为具备鲜明个性特质的人文主义者及令人尊重的教育者形象。同时,史景迁致力于厘清西方一般认知中对孔子及其思想的诸多误读,并努力唤起西方受众对孔子当代意义的认同。 相似文献