Surveillance of the interaction parameter of the ising model

Surveillance to detect changes of spatial patterns is of interest in many areas such as environmental control and regional analysis. Here the interaction parameter of the Ising model, is considered. A minimal sufficient statistic and its asymptotic distribution are used. It is demonstrated that the convergence to normal, distribution is rapid. The main result is that when the lattice is large, all approximations are better in several respects. It is shown that, for large lattice sizes, earlier results on surveillance of a normally distributed random variable can be used in cases of most interest. The expected delay of alarm at a fixed level of false alarm probability is examined for some examples.     

Analyzing the Homeland Security of the U.S.-Mexico Border

We develop a mathematical optimization model at the intersection of homeland security and immigration, that chooses various immigration enforcement decision variables to minimize the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States across the U.S.-Mexico border. Included are a discrete choice model for the probability that a potential alien crosser will attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in terms of the likelihood of success and the U.S. wage for illegal workers, a spatial model that calculates the apprehension probability as a function of the number of crossers, the number of border patrol agents, and the amount of surveillance technology on the border, a queueing model that determines the probability that an apprehended alien will be detained and removed as a function of the number of detention beds, and an equilibrium model for the illegal wage that balances the supply and demand for work and incorporates the impact of worksite enforcement. Our main result is that detention beds are the current system bottleneck (even after the large reduction in detention residence times recently achieved by expedited removal), and increases in border patrol staffing or surveillance technology would not provide any improvements without a large increase in detention capacity. Our model also predicts that surveillance technology is more cost effective than border patrol agents, which in turn are more cost effective than worksite inspectors, but these results are not robust due to the difficulty of predicting human behavior from existing data. Overall, the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States is very high, and it would be extremely costly and difficult to significantly reduce it. We also investigate the alternative objective function of minimizing the flow of illegal aliens across the U.S.-Mexico border, and obtain qualitatively similar results.     

以策略训练为基础的外语教学对阅读理解的影响

以策略训练为基础的外语教学能有效地提高学生的阅读能力，尤其在理解文章中心思想和判断推理能力方面有较大提高。对提高学生自主学习能力有积极作用。该研究还为大学英语教学提供了可借鉴的启示。     

On the one-sample location hypothesis for mixed bivariate data

We study a hypothesis testing problem involving the location model suggested by Olkin and Tate (1961). Specifically, we derive a likelihood ratio lest of the associated location hypothesis as an alternative to the conventional method of carrying out separate tests for each of the parameters. A small sample Monte Carlo comparison indicates the general superiority of the former in terms of statistical power. We also comment briefly on the properties of the test.     

MODELING THE LIFETIME OF LONGITUDINAL ELEMENTS

In the study of the stochastic behaviour of the lifetime of an element as a function of its length, it is often observed that the failure time (or lifetime) decreases as the length increases. In probabilistic terms, such an idea can be expressed as follows. Let T be the lifetime of a specimen of length x, so the survival function, which denotes the probability that an element of length x survives till time t, will be given by S_T (t, x) = P(T > t/α(x), where α(x) is a monotonically decreasing function. In particular, it is often assumed that T has a Weibull distribution. In this paper, we propose a generalization of this Weibull model by assuming that the distribution of T is Generalized gamma (GG). Since the GG model contains the Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal models as special and limiting cases, a GG regression model is an appropriate tool for describing the size effect on the lifetime and for selecting among the embedded models. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained for the GG regression model with α(x) = cx^b . As a special case this provide an alternative to the usual approach to estimation for the GG distribution which involves reparametrization. Related parametric inference issues are addressed and illustrated using two experimental data sets. Some discussion of censored data is also provided.     

Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?

The monetary policy targets the short rates; however, during zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), the short end of the yield curve cannot serve as a policy instrument. Relying on the joint yields-macro latent factors model, this study empirically examines the effect of monetary policy stances on term structure and the possible feedback effect on the real sector using the Japanese experience of ZIRP. The analysis indicates that it is the entire term structure that transmits the policy shocks to the real economy rather than the yield spread only. The monetary policy signals pass through the yield curve level and slope factors to stimulate the economic activity. The curvature factor, besides reflecting the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, acts as a leading indicator for future inflation. In addition, policy influence tends to be low as the short end becomes segmented toward medium/long-term of the yield curve. Furthermore, volatility in bond markets is found to be asymmetrically affected by positive and negative shocks and long end tends to be less sensitive to stochastic shocks than the short maturities. The expectation hypothesis of the term structure does not hold during the ZIRP period.     

考虑合作程度的电信数据业务合作创新模型研究

基于模型试验，对堆载诱发型边坡滑坡的变形机理及演化过程进行研究。研究结果表明: （1）堆载诱发型滑坡的变形演化规律可归纳为：后缘压缩阶段→蠕动变形阶段→加速滑动阶段→剧滑阶段，且剧滑启动之前的加速变形过渡时间极短；（2）利用FLAC3D软件进行堆载滑坡演化过程的动态数值分析，模拟过程中坡体应力场和位移场的演化特征表现为从上向下逐步贯通，与模型边坡破坏过程相符；（3）堆载诱发型滑坡破坏过程历时短、突发性强，在坡脚产生持续位移时即应做出滑坡预警。     

An additive subdistribution hazard model for competing risks data

The cumulative incidence function plays an important role in assessing its treatment and covariate effects with competing risks data. In this article, we consider an additive hazard model allowing the time-varying covariate effects for the subdistribution and propose the weighted estimating equation under the covariate-dependent censoring by fitting the Cox-type hazard model for the censoring distribution. When there exists some association between the censoring time and the covariates, the proposed coefficients’ estimations are unbiased and the large-sample properties are established. The finite-sample properties of the proposed estimators are examined in the simulation study. The proposed Cox-weighted method is applied to a competing risks dataset from a Hodgkin's disease study.     

基于可信性理论下的EPQ问题的期望值模型

基于可信性理论,本文给出了不允许缺货的经济生产量(EPQ)问题的期望值模型;研究了当单位生产准备费、单位储存费均为模糊变量且相互独立的情况下EPQ 问题的最佳期望单位存储费用、最佳期望单位生产批量及最佳期望生产周期,并得出了一些重要的结论;特殊情况下,讨论了当模型中的模糊参数分别为三角模糊变量、梯形模糊变量及正态模糊变量情况下的EPQ 问题的最优存储策略;最后,针对上述三种情况本文分别给出了一些数值例子验证了模型的有效性和合理性;本文所得到的结果为求解EPQ 问题设计算法提供了理论依据.     

对范·路文兹瓦特翻译比较模式的再思考

文章从理论阐述、译例选取两方面突出了范·路文兹瓦特（Kitty Van Leuven—Zwart）的比较模式在翻译转换中的理论意义和实用价值，结合东西方不同翻译理论流派的观点，从其可操作性和理论根源上剖析了比较模式的合理性、科学性以及存在的缺陷。