A股价格波动真的非平稳？ ——大数据背景下个股数据的全样本实证

传统研究对股票市场平稳性分析中大多采用市场指数抽样方式,分析方法和数据采样的差异一定程度上解析了现有研究结论中的不一致性。从市场指数构建原理入手可探究抽样分析的局限,作为系列个股的加权值,市场指数无法精确刻画市场所有个股的波动情况。实证时采用A股市场所有个股数据开展全样本分析,这更符合大数据分析理念,统计出个股分析结果继而对A股市场波动进行判定将更加系统和可靠。在不考虑结构突变的情形下,分别计算出ADF检验、KPSS检验和PP检验三种方法的结果;全样本分析结果表明A股市场年度股价数据更多地呈现出平稳性特点,而且,个股数据检验结果与市场指数检验结果存在显著差异。     

农产品价格波动中的金融化因素分析——以大豆、食糖为例

基于2007年1月至2016年12月的相关月度数据,以大豆和食糖为例,通过ARDL模型分别从长期和短期对影响国内农产品现货价格的金融化因素进行了系统测算。结果表明,通货膨胀因素、国内期货价格、货币供应量和国际现货价格是影响国内大豆现货价格的主要金融化因素;国内期货价格、通货膨胀因素和国际现货价格是影响国内食糖现货价格的主要金融化因素;汇率和能源价格对二者的影响均不明显。最后,从改善宏观经济环境、规范期货市场发展、健全农产品进口风险防控体系、关注品种间差异等方面提出了应对农产品金融化的对策建议。     

Multiscale Combined Forecast of Carbon PriceBased on Mixed Structure Data

Accurate forecast of the carbon trading price is of great significance in promoting the scientific and rational development of carbon trading market. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-scale combined forecasting method for carbon price based on mixed structure data. First, the Google Index is used to extract the unstructured data related to the carbon price.The dimensions of unstructured data are reduced based on principal component analysis. Then, EMD is employedto the structured data,unstructured data and the carbon trading price to obtain different IMFs, which are reconstructed by the Fine-to-Coarse technique to get low, high frequency sequence and trend sequence. Furthermore, the three items are predicted respectively by using ARIMA, PLS and neural networks according to the features of each scale in time series. Finally, the forecasting results are summed to get the carbon price forecast sequence. The proposed method is used to forecast carbon price in EU. The empirical results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is higher than that of the single prediction method and the prediction method that time series aren’t decomposed by EMD, which is of great applicability.     

地方政府审计职能软化问题研究

政府审计是对权力的监督和制约,现阶段,我国地方政府审计面临的发展困境主要是审计职能软化问题,针对地方政府审计存在的主要问题,剖析原因,从多角度提出解决审计职能软化的对策。     

房屋拆迁中的国有土地使用权补偿司法实证研究

房屋拆迁中的国有土地使用权补偿是我国城镇房屋拆迁中的主要矛盾点之一。通过对司法判例进行实证研究发现，法院判决多数认为原告诉请国有土地使用权补偿于法无据，抑或认为对于国有土地使用权的补偿已随房屋评估作价。房屋拆迁的重点在于“地”，若仅对房屋所有权人进行补偿，而忽视国有土地使用权人，无疑会引发诸多诉讼，乃至于阻碍城镇化进程。因此，在渐进式改革的背景之下，可以开展国有土地使用权补偿的试点，同时应当完善《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》，并将合理补偿原则作为补偿的基本原则，以此为基础建立一套独立于房屋拆迁补偿的国有土地使用权补偿体系。     

Gendered Egos: Attitude Functions and Gender as Predictors of Homonegativity

This study used a correlational design with a sample of university students to clarify the relationships between attitude functions and homonegativity with respect to gender. Classic work on attitude functions posits that attitudes serve psychological needs for the attitude holder. Herek (1986b) adapted this theory to explain attitudes toward homosexuality. Herek (1987) identified four functions: ego-defensive (defense of threats to the self), value-expressive (expression of key values), social-expressive (expression of important social norms), and experiential (based on past experiences). Results suggested that men were more likely to attribute their attitudes to the ego-defensive function. Men and women were equally likely to attribute their attitudes to the experiential function. The ego-defensive function was the best predictor of homonegativity for men and women, whether they held generally positive or generally negative attitudes toward homosexuality. The experiential function did not predict homonegativity. Participants tended to be neither very homonegative nor very ego-defensive.     

Scanner Data and the Treatment of Quality Change in Nonrevisable Price Indexes

The recently developed rolling year GEKS procedure makes maximum use of all matches in the data to construct nonrevisable price indexes that are approximately free from chain drift. A potential weakness is that unmatched items are ignored. In this article we use imputation Törnqvist price indexes as inputs into the rolling year GEKS procedure. These indexes account for quality changes by imputing the “missing prices” associated with new and disappearing items. Three imputation methods are discussed. The first method makes explicit imputations using a hedonic regression model which is estimated for each time period. The other two methods make implicit imputations; they are based on time dummy hedonic and time-product dummy regression models and are estimated on bilateral pooled data. We present empirical evidence for New Zealand from scanner data on eight consumer electronics products and find that accounting for quality change can make a substantial difference.     

The arithmetic of outcome editing in financial and social domains

Outcome editing refers to a set of mental rules that people apply when deciding whether to evaluate multiple outcomes jointly or separately, which subsequently affects choice. In a large-scale online survey (n = 2062) we investigate whether individuals use the same outcome editing rules for financial outcomes (e.g., a lottery win) and social outcomes (e.g., a party with friends). We also test the role of numeric ability in explaining outcome editing. Our results show that people’s preferences for combining or separating events depend on whether those events are in the financial or the social domain. Specifically, individuals were more likely to segregate social outcomes than monetary outcomes, except for when all outcomes were negative. Moreover, numeric ability was associated with preferences for outcome editing in the financial domain but not in the social domain. Our findings extend the understanding of the arithmetic operations underlying outcome editing and suggest that people rely more on calculations when making choices involving multiple financial outcomes and more on feelings when making choices involving social outcomes.     

劣势耐用品厂商的产品质保期与质保服务投入策略研究

在实际中，消费者购买耐用品时均同时获得厂商提供的质保服务，由于产品质保服务影响着消费者的产品使用效用，因此耐用品定价、质保期和产品质保服务投入是影响厂商利润的主要因素。考虑双寡头市场环境下，建立微分博弈模型讨论单位产品质保服务投入和产品质保期对双寡头厂商均衡价格的影响。结论表明双寡头厂商的单位产品质保服务投入越高、质保期越长，均衡价格越高；但单位产品保服务投入与质保服务对消费者效用影响系数的关系影响着竞争对手在均衡价格的变化趋势；劣势的低质量厂商可以通过增加单位产品质保服务投入策略或延长质保期的策略实现在均衡下与高质量厂商以同等价格销售耐用品，但劣势厂商增加单位产品质保服务投入策略要优于延长质保期策略。最后，利用数值分析进一步验证了所得结论的有效性。