数字营销传播背景下的新型社会形态研究

随着数字营销传播的发展,社会形态发生了巨大的改变.数字营销传播的载体改变了传统的生活方式,让消费和传播变得更加精准,各种各样私人化的定制服务满足了人们个性化的需求.这种新型的营销传播方式让消费者在市场中占据了主导位置.数字技术在改变生活方式的同时,也改变着人们的认知系统和价值观念.经过数字营销传播的洗礼,社会结构重新部落化,沟通变得更加平等.行业之间开始融合,不同领域的行业边界变得模糊不清.以往的营销传播理念已无法满足当今大变革时代的需求,新型社会形态需要全新的营销传播理论与之相对应.     

A win ratio approach to comparing continuous non‐normal outcomes in clinical trials

Clinical trials are often designed to compare continuous non‐normal outcomes. The conventional statistical method for such a comparison is a non‐parametric Mann–Whitney test, which provides a P‐value for testing the hypothesis that the distributions of both treatment groups are identical, but does not provide a simple and straightforward estimate of treatment effect. For that, Hodges and Lehmann proposed estimating the shift parameter between two populations and its confidence interval (CI). However, such a shift parameter does not have a straightforward interpretation, and its CI contains zero in some cases when Mann–Whitney test produces a significant result. To overcome the aforementioned problems, we introduce the use of the win ratio for analysing such data. Patients in the new and control treatment are formed into all possible pairs. For each pair, the new treatment patient is labelled a ‘winner’ or a ‘loser’ if it is known who had the more favourable outcome. The win ratio is the total number of winners divided by the total numbers of losers. A 95% CI for the win ratio can be obtained using the bootstrap method. Statistical properties of the win ratio statistic are investigated using two real trial data sets and six simulation studies. Results show that the win ratio method has about the same power as the Mann–Whitney method. We recommend the use of the win ratio method for estimating the treatment effect (and CI) and the Mann–Whitney method for calculating the P‐value for comparing continuous non‐Normal outcomes when the amount of tied pairs is small. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从汉字构造看“三生万物”思想

一般认为“三生万物”是道家思想,其实,早在道家思想产生之前,汉字构形中早就已隐含“三生万物”的意识。通过对有 关汉字的分析说明汉字产生之初即已有此种概念,这对于了解汉字和哲学史均有裨益。     

揭西龙门寨木偶戏的艺术形态研究

揭西龙门寨木偶戏是植根于民间的传统艺术,经过两个多世纪的历史沉淀,在木偶造型、服装与道具、舞台与乐器等方面呈现出鲜明的地方特色,在剧目形式、演出技巧、唱腔音乐方面具有独特的艺术形态,还保留了不少演出习俗。揭西龙门寨木偶戏与其他非物质文化遗产一样,是民间艺术的一种存在形态。     

网络大众民族主义表现方式与特征

网络大众民族主义指的是以大众文化的形态出现在网络上的民族主义。其表现方式有帖子、Q 群消息、博客与微博、网络游戏、网络新闻、黑客等等。其特征是：更为可见的大众性、更为多元的互动性、多样化的表达形式和狂欢式的话语风格、即时的反应与巨大的影响。网络大众民族主义惊人的号召力、多样化的形式和强大的现实影响力,越来越引起研究者和决策者的重视。在未来,它仍将是一个需要持续关注的论题。     

新常态下高校形势与政策课程模式改革探析

在新常态的话语背景下,传统高校形势与政策课程模式越来越不适应现代需求,与教学对象的新特点存在若干不协调、不衔接、不到位之处。为适应新常态,改进高校形势与政策课程模式,提升实效性,文章从宏观层面分析新常态下高校形势与政策课程目标及现实困境,认为需要从优化教学力量构成、改进理论教学体系、拓展实践教学平台及构建管理保障机制等方面做出改进。     

Dealing with the Initial Observation in the LM Unit Root Test

This article proposes a linearly weighted unit root test with a new weighting scheme which reflects the trade-off in power between the ADF and LM tests regarding the initial value of a time series. Simulation results indicate that the proposed test has better power performance and works better than other available tests in the literature for a range of initial conditions.     

Bayesian variable selection approach to a Bernstein polynomial regression model with stochastic constraints

This paper provides a Bayesian estimation procedure for monotone regression models incorporating the monotone trend constraint subject to uncertainty. For monotone regression modeling with stochastic restrictions, we propose a Bayesian Bernstein polynomial regression model using two-stage hierarchical prior distributions based on a family of rectangle-screened multivariate Gaussian distributions extended from the work of Gurtis and Ghosh [7 S.M. Curtis and S.K. Ghosh, A variable selection approach to monotonic regression with Bernstein polynomials, J. Appl. Stat. 38 (2011), pp. 961–976. doi: 10.1080/02664761003692423[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]. This approach reflects the uncertainty about the prior constraint, and thus proposes a regression model subject to monotone restriction with uncertainty. Based on the proposed model, we derive the posterior distributions for unknown parameters and present numerical schemes to generate posterior samples. We show the empirical performance of the proposed model based on synthetic data and real data applications and compare the performance to the Bernstein polynomial regression model of Curtis and Ghosh [7 S.M. Curtis and S.K. Ghosh, A variable selection approach to monotonic regression with Bernstein polynomials, J. Appl. Stat. 38 (2011), pp. 961–976. doi: 10.1080/02664761003692423[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] for the shape restriction with certainty. We illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed method that incorporates the uncertainty of the monotone trend and automatically adapts the regression function to the monotonicity, through empirical analysis with synthetic data and real data applications.     

交汇契合与并行发展——探寻高等师范教育改革与基础教育改革的共同之路

基础教育与高等师范教育是人才成长的摇篮,而且是教育的两个不同等级的环节.基础教育对中小学生基本素质的形成与知识能力的培养起着不可替代的作用,基础教育质量的提高取决于中小学教师质量的提高;高等师范教育及高等师范院校是学生素质提升与能力提高的关键时期,高等师范教育的目标是为基础教育服务,双方的合作与交流是成功培养人才的需求和必由之路.     

论宪法中的权界式公民义务规范

以义务性规范的形式对宪法权利作出的限制规定,就是宪法中的权界式公民义务规范,它有概括限制型和具体限制型两种类型。宪法权利的法律保留限制式规定,不应视为公民义务规范。权界式义务规范在创设目的、出现位置、表述转换等方面与明示式义务规范有着重大区别。权界式义务规范附属于公民宪法权利规范本身,它可以转换成非义务性的表述,其实质是表示权利应当有所约束。关于宪法权利之限制规定能否被视为公民义务规范的争议,可通过形式与实质的双重视角予以化解。