Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for high dimensional inversion in remote sensing

Summary.  We discuss the inversion of the gas profiles (ozone, NO₃, NO₂, aerosols and neutral density) in the upper atmosphere from the spectral occultation measurements. The data are produced by the 'Global ozone monitoring of occultation of stars' instrument on board the Envisat satellite that was launched in March 2002. The instrument measures the attenuation of light spectra at various horizontal paths from about 100 km down to 10–20 km. The new feature is that these data allow the inversion of the gas concentration height profiles. A short introduction is given to the present operational data management procedure with examples of the first real data inversion. Several solution options for a more comprehensive statistical inversion are presented. A direct inversion leads to a non-linear model with hundreds of parameters to be estimated. The problem is solved with an adaptive single-step Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Another approach is to divide the problem into several non-linear smaller dimensional problems, to run parallel adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo chains for them and to solve the gas profiles in repetitive linear steps. The effect of grid size is discussed, and we present how the prior regularization takes the grid size into account in a way that effectively leads to a grid-independent inversion.     

具体应用中的矛盾分析法之种种

矛盾分析法在科学认识中的具体应用,可作多侧面的展开,形成多方面的更为具体的科学方法。这些具体科学方法可概括为,矛盾的定性分析法、矛盾的定位分析法、矛盾的定点分析法、矛盾的定量分析法、矛盾的定势分析法、矛盾的历史过程分析法、矛盾的逻辑过程分析法、矛盾的系统分析法、矛盾的对立面互补分析法等等.它们均体现哲学方法与具体科学方法的一致性。     

二维拟线性散度型二阶椭圆型方程弱解的弱收敛

本文用 H—测度来研究二维拟线性散度型二阶椭圆型方程弱解的弱收敛性,并讨论了非一致椭圆的情形,得到了一些很好的结果.     

新时期高等学校教师培训工作的思考

分析了高等学校教师培训工作的现状,即不完全适应时代发展的需要;不完全适应我国加入WTO后高等教育与国际接轨的需要;不完全适应高等教育自身深化改革和发展的需要;不完全适应教师参训的个性愿望的需要。针对高等学校教师培训实际工作中存在重学历培训,轻师德培养;对教师创新能力、实践能力的培养不够重视;经费短缺,内容陈旧,考核机制不够完善等问题,提出了健全规章,实行依法培训;加强师德建设,采取多种形式,提高教师综合素质;设立专项培训经费及建立健全教师培训的激励机制的对策。     

论WTO框架下技术性贸易壁垒对我国对外贸易的影响及对策

文章分析了我国入世后,在关税壁垒和许多非关税壁垒对我国外贸发展的影响日渐减弱的情况下,WTO框架下的技术性贸易壁垒对我国外贸的不利影响.并提出四项对策:提高国内对技术性贸易壁垒的认识和了解,使企业重视技术性贸易壁垒的不断变化;将技术性贸易壁垒转化为标准化的推进器,提高产品质量;强化知识产权保护,使企业能不断提高自身的技术水平;实施"走出去"策略,规避繁苛的技术贸易壁垒,以期对我国外贸实践有所助益.     

蒙特卡罗方法及其在辐射剂量计算中的应用

概述了蒙特卡罗方法的产生与发展,阐述了蒙特卡罗方法的基本特点,最后就蒙特卡罗方法在辐射剂量计算上的应用进行了讨论。     

协同运输管理运行机制研究

协同运输管理是在CPFR基础上发展起来的一种供应链管理方法。它通过降低供应链中的运输成本、缩短商品交付时间和提高准时交货率,实现供应链价值的最大化。协同运输管理的有效实施,需要建立完善的运行机制,包括动力机制、约束机制、实际行为和惩罚机制,并配备相应的软硬件条件。     

大学计算机专业“基础原理”课的教学探讨

本文针对现代大学生学习计算机专业“基础原理”课程存在的种种客观问题,通过分析这些问题找出其中原因,并介绍对这些问题所采取的解决方案。教学实践表明,这些方案对学生学习“基础原理课”起到了较好的效果,提高了这类课程的教学质量。     

大学生主体性德育教学初探

本文拟在探讨如何把以人为本的方针科学地贯彻落实到高校德育教学中,探索在新的历史条件下高校推行大学生主体性德育教学方法的可行性,为进一步揭示高校德育教学的发展规律,提高高校德育教学的科学性、针对性、实效性提供可资借鉴方法。