加强自治条例修改工作的必要性与对策研究

自治条例是民族自治地方贯彻实施民族区域自治法,妥善处理自治地方内部的民族关系、维护民族平等的重要保障。但是,由于立法工作者能力不足、立法理论缺失和法律规定不明确等因素的制约,导致自治条例存在对不能变通的法律规定做出变通,违背法律平等要求对法律规定进行细化,超越法定权限为上级国家机关设定义务,脱离实际需要简单复制上位法规定等违背宪法及其相关法要求的问题。为此,应从加强立法队伍建设和立法理论研究,对?宪法?和?民族区域自治法?的有关规定进行必要的解释和修改等几个方面,推动自治地方人大有效开展自治条例修改和完善工作。     

转型加速时期西部少数民族地区结构性贫困研究述论

文章认为西部少数民族地区在社会转型加快时期的贫困问题基本上是结构性贫困,并对这种结构性贫困问题的具体特征及其产生的社会危害进行纬度结构分析,最后系统地从建构现代国家治理体系和治理现代化的背景下提出了治理路径。     

攀西地区特色产业扶贫发展经验研究——以攀枝花市米易县为例

攀西地区得天独厚的气候条件孕育着特色产业发展的巨大优势,该地区充分利用其特有的气候条件,依托独特的资源优势,实施特色产业扶贫战略,积极走现代化、标准化、规模化的生态发展之路,大力发展早、稀、特、优等现代特色产业,加快产业结构调整,积极带动农民增收致富,农村经济实力和农业发展活力不断增强,农业增产增效、农民持续增收,为当地群众脱贫发展做出了积极贡献。本文以攀西地区米易县为研究案例,积极探索该区域特色产业脱贫发展经验,对类似气候条件下特色产业扶贫发展提供一个可供参考的研究个案,以便能充分地开发利用特殊气候下的自然资源,实现长效扶贫,促进当地群众脱贫致富积极创造条件。     

A New Quantile Function with Applications to Reliability Analysis

In this article, we propose a new class of distributions defined by a quantile function, which nests several distributions as its members. The quantile function proposed here is the sum of the quantile functions of the generalized Pareto and Weibull distributions. Various distributional properties and reliability characteristics of the class are discussed. The estimation of the parameters of the model using L-moments is studied. Finally, we apply the model to a real life dataset.     

Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence

Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this article, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations, and estimate the copula using Bayesian methods. We examine the forecasting performance of the model for four U.S. macroeconomic variables between 1975:Q1 and 2011:Q2 using quarterly real-time data. We find that the point and density forecasts from the copula model are competitive with those from a Bayesian VAR. During the recent recession the forecast densities exhibit substantial asymmetry, avoiding some of the pitfalls of the symmetric forecast densities from the Bayesian VAR. We show that the asymmetries in the predictive distributions of GDP growth and inflation are similar to those found in the probabilistic forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Last, we find that unlike the linear VAR model, our fitted Gaussian copula models exhibit nonlinear dependencies between some macroeconomic variables. This article has online supplementary material.     

Bayesian estimation and influence diagnostics of generalized partially linear mixed-effects models for longitudinal data

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to obtain the joint estimates of unknown parameters, nonparametric functions and random effects in generalized partially linear mixed models (GPLMMs), and presents three case deletion influence measures to identify influential observations based on the φ-divergence, Cook's posterior mean distance and Cook's posterior mode distance of parameters. Fisher's iterative scoring algorithm is developed to evaluate the posterior modes of parameters in GPLMMs. The first-order approximation to Cook's posterior mode distance is presented. The computationally feasible formulae for the φ-divergence diagnostic and Cook's posterior mean distance are given. Several simulation studies and an example are presented to illustrate our proposed methodologies.     

中国生产性服务业TFP的时空差异与影响因素分析

在利用Malmquist指数法测算2005-2013年中国30个省份生产性服务业的全要素生产率(TFP)的基础上,采用核密度估计法分析了TFP的动态演变,并运用分位数回归方法对中国生产性服务业TFP的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究发现:在考察期内中国生产性服务业TFP总体呈下降态势,技术效率下降是其下降的主要原因;核密度曲线说明中国生产性服务业TFP省际差距扩大,技术效率和技术进步逐渐呈现两极分化的趋势;分位数回归结果表明,工业化水平和人力资本水平对生产性服务业TFP提升具有普遍的促进作用,而信息化水平、对外开放水平、制造业集中度对生产性服务业TFP提高的贡献大小均与地区生产性服务业TFP的水平有关。     

中国林区贫困现状及解决对策研究综述

林区有着丰富的自然资源,但是近年来,林区社会经济落后以及林农的贫困成为我国现阶段较为显著的现象,同时也成为影响林业发展以及整个社会发展的一个迫在眉睫的问题。林区贫困问题引起了国内外学者的极大关注,本文主要论述了我国林区贫困的现状,并介绍了目前较为典型的5个解决林区贫困的方法和对策：即生态移民、开发非木材林产品、森林旅游、中央和地方政府的扶持、发展教育。     

区域产业文化与人力资源优化配置研究

区域经济发展依赖于区域产业的发展,区域产业竞争力则体现为区域资源整合力,尤其是区域人力资源的优化配置.区域产业文化不仅具有区域性、宽松性和产业群人才观三大特征,还具有促进区域人力资源优化配置的功能.区域产业文化建设需要政府、企业、科研机构等各种区域利益相关者在健全法规、扶持核心企业、提高企业积极性和发展中介组织等方面共同努力.     

镇江沿江亲水生态文明建设刍议

区域竞争中,城市吸引力和竞争力的提高离不开其文化底蕴的提升。镇江的文明建设不仅要融入沿江开发、长三角区域发展的大潮流,更要有自身的地域特色。从旅游、城建、人力资源、城市精神、地产品牌等方面打造镇江沿江亲水生态文明,不仅符合镇江区域文化的精神内涵,更是科学发展观的根本要求。