浅谈大学英语听力理解能力的提高

听力理解的过程是一个涉及语音、语调、词汇、语法等语言知识、相关国家的文化背景,以及一定听力技巧的综合过程.只有采取多种教学方法帮助学生加强听力训练,逐步克服各种障碍,才能使学生全面提高听力理解能力.     

A Conditional Density Approach to the Order Determination of Time Series

The study focuses on the selection of the order of a general time series process via the conditional density of the latter, a characteristic of which is that it remains constant for every order beyond the true one. Using simulated time series from various nonlinear models we illustrate how this feature can be traced from conditional density estimation. We study whether two statistics derived from the likelihood function can serve as univariate statistics to determine the order of the process. It is found that a weighted version of the log likelihood function has desirable robust properties in detecting the order of the process.     

Detecting and identifying interventions with the Whittle spectral approach in a long memory panel data model

This article provides a procedure for the detection and identification of outliers in the spectral domain where the Whittle maximum likelihood estimator of the panel data model proposed by Chen [W.D. Chen, Testing for spurious regression in a panel data model with the individual number and time length growing, J. Appl. Stat. 33(88) (2006b), pp. 759–772] is implemented. We extend the approach of Chang and co-workers [I. Chang, G.C. Tiao, and C. Chen, Estimation of time series parameters in the presence of outliers, Technometrics 30 (2) (1988), pp. 193–204] to the spectral domain and through the Whittle approach we can quickly detect and identify the type of outliers. A fixed effects panel data model is used, in which the remainder disturbance is assumed to be a fractional autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARFIMA) process and the likelihood ratio criterion is obtained directly through the modified inverse Fourier transform. This saves much time, especially when the estimated model implements a huge data-set.

Through Monte Carlo experiments, the consistency of the estimator is examined by growing the individual number N and time length T, in which the long memory remainder disturbances are contaminated with two types of outliers: additive outlier and innovation outlier. From the power tests, we see that the estimators are quite successful and powerful.

In the empirical study, we apply the model on Taiwan's computer motherboard industry. Weekly data from 1 January 2000 to 31 October 2006 of nine familiar companies are used. The proposed model has a smaller mean square error and shows more distinctive aggressive properties than the raw data model does.     

Nonparametric estimation of a regression function from backward recurrence times in a cross-sectional sampling

This study considers the nonparametric estimation of a regression function when the response variable is the waiting time between two consecutive events of a stationary renewal process, and where this variable is not completely observed. In these circumstances, our data are the recurrence times from the occurrence of the last event up to a pre-established time, along with the corresponding values of a certain set of covariates. Estimation of the error density function and some of its characteristics are also considered. For the proposed estimators, we first analyze their asymptotic behavior and, thereafter, carry out a simulation study to highlight their behavior in finite samples. Finally, we apply this methodology to an illustrative example with biomedical data.     

阻碍东北老工业基地发展的制度缺失分析--以吉林省注册会计师审计制度为例进行的问卷调查

阻碍东北老工业基地发展的根本因素在于市场经济制度的缺失。注册会计师审计制度是市场经济制度中的一项子制度,这一制度是否缺失直接影响着一个地区的经济发展。我们对吉林省注册会计师进行了问卷调查,发现吉林省注册会计师审计制度的各个要素都有很大的漏洞。首先,注册会计师为社会公众服务的理念十分淡薄;第二,对审计准则的理解存在着很大的偏差;第三,审计收费明显偏低,激励机制不足;第四,对法律责任和职业道德没有足够的重视;第五,不能很好地区分审计意见类型。调查结果显示,吉林省注册会计师审计制度是不完善的,真正与市场经济相配合的社会经济监督制度是缺失的,这一制度的缺失将极大地阻碍吉林省的发展和东北老工业基地的振兴。     

少数民族地区社区参与旅游的影响因素与措施

社区参与旅游是实现旅游业可持续发展的有效途径。少数民族地区由于旅游资源和环境的独特性,旅游业的发展更离不开社区的参与合作。通过对少数民族地区社区参与旅游发展的意义和影响因素分析,提出了少数民族地区社区参与旅游发展的措施。     

话本小说与江南文化

话本小说与江南文化有着很深的渊源关系。江南文化对话本小说的内容及艺术都有影响,同时还存在消极作用。      

苏北内生增长的希望在于培植农产品加工业

发展苏北经济,要靠外力拉动,更要靠内生增长机制,关键是建立工业化的内生增长机制。借鉴国内外区域经济发展的经验,结合苏北的现实经济状况,应当把农产品加工业作为工业化初期的支柱产业来培植。发展苏北农产品加工业必须创新发展思路,立足实际,注重特色,政策诱导,科技支撑,外强内联,逐步构筑新的优势     

Generalized Empirical Likelihood Inference in Generalized Linear Models for Longitudinal Data

In this article, the generalized linear model for longitudinal data is studied. A generalized empirical likelihood method is proposed by combining generalized estimating equations and quadratic inference functions based on the working correlation matrix. It is proved that the proposed generalized empirical likelihood ratios are asymptotically chi-squared under some suitable conditions, and hence it can be used to construct the confidence regions of the parameters. In addition, the maximum empirical likelihood estimates of parameters are obtained, and their asymptotic normalities are proved. Some simulations are undertaken to compare the generalized empirical likelihood and normal approximation-based method in terms of coverage accuracies and average areas/lengths of confidence regions/intervals. An example of a real data is used for illustrating our methods.