De minimis and equity in risk

Indices and orderings are developed for evaluating alternative strategies in the management of risk. They reflect the goals of reducing individual and collective risks, of increasing equity, and of assigning priority to the reduction and to the equity of high risks. Individual risk is defined as the (random or non-random) level of exposure to a danger. In particular the role of a lower negligibility level is investigated. A class of indices is proposed which involves two parameters, a negligibility level and a parameter of inequality aversion, and several interpretations of the indices are discussed. We provide a set of eight axioms which are necessary and sufficient for this class of indices, and we present an approach to deal with partial information on the parameters.     

基于主体不平等的跨国界河流水资源分配的破产博弈研究

基于破产理论和讨价还价博弈,构建水资源分配的破产博弈模型。借鉴国际水法,构建主体在水资源分配谈判中的议价能力评价指标体系,将议价能力运用到破产博弈模型中,突出主体在水资源分配中的不平等性,减少水资源分配量与贡献、需求量和对水资源依赖程度的非对称性;结合主体的谈判破裂点,根据主体满意度函数的联动函数寻找水资源分配的最优解,使分配能同时满足个体理性和集体理性,并对澜沧江-湄公河流域进行实例研究。     

正确把握新时代坚持和加强党的全面领导的逻辑理路——中国化马克思主义发展思想研究

党的十九大明确作出“坚持和加强党的全面领导”的重大政治论断,并把它作为新时代“党的建设”总要求的首要观点、坚持和发展中国特色社会主义“基本方略”的第一条提出来,这是中国共产党人进行党建工作的基本指导和根本遵循。新时代,正确把握坚持和加强党的全面领导的逻辑理路至关重要,因为这是我们党与生俱来和新时代历史使命的必然要求,是我们党带领人民战胜敌人的强大法宝和克服一切困难风险的定海神针;是执政党持之以恒正风肃纪和紧锣密鼓反腐惩恶的内在需要和客观要求。     

湖湘大地才是炎帝文化的母体——兼与中华炎黄文化研究会商讨“炎帝故里”问题

湖南是原始拜火教的发源地和稻作农业的诞生地,也是炎帝族中心聚落的所在地,湖南才是炎帝文化的母体。中华炎黄研究会认为山西高平是炎帝故里的说法缺乏关键证据支持,因而难以成立。     

以科学发展观促进央行内部控制环境建设

作为中央银行的分支机构,应结合实际着力把对科学发展观的理解与把握,转化为谋划金融发展的正确思路,应该贯彻和谐顺央行的理念,坚持以人为本,加强诚信与职业道德建设,从而促进内部控制环境的建设。     

论壮族服饰变迁的缘由

服饰是人类文化的重要组成部分,是一个民族的重要标志之一。民族服饰不是一成不变的,每一个民族在其发展过程中,都有一个相对独立的服饰变迁史,壮族服饰同样经历了一个发展演变的历程。在壮族服饰习俗的发展和演化过程中,自然环境、物质条件、社会文化环境和心理环境等对其产生重大影响。     

On the Critical Value Behaviour of Multiple Decision Procedures

In this paper we investigate the asymptotic critical value behaviour of certain multiple decision procedures as e.g. simultaneous confidence intervals and simultaneous as well as stepwise multiple test procedures. Supposing that n hypotheses or parameters of interest are under consideration we investigate the critical value behaviour when n increases. More specifically, we answer e.g. the question by which amount the lengths of confidence intervals increase when an additional parameter is added to the statistical analysis. Furthermore, critical values of different multiple decision procedures as for instance step-down and step-up procedures will be compared. Some general theoretic results are derived and applied for various distributions.     

Bayesian prediction of waiting times in stochastic models

The authors show how saddlepoint techniques lead to highly accurate approximations for Bayesian predictive densities and cumulative distribution functions in stochastic model settings where the prior is tractable, but not necessarily the likelihood or the predictand distribution. They consider more specifically models involving predictions associated with waiting times for semi‐Markov processes whose distributions are indexed by an unknown parameter θ. Bayesian prediction for such processes when they are not stationary is also addressed and the inverse‐Gaussian based saddlepoint approximation of Wood, Booth & Butler (1993) is shown to accurately deal with the nonstationarity whereas the normal‐based Lugannani & Rice (1980) approximation cannot, Their methods are illustrated by predicting various waiting times associated with M/M/q and M/G/1 queues. They also discuss modifications to the matrix renewal theory needed for computing the moment generating functions that are used in the saddlepoint methods.     

Social Sources of Failure in Education: The Case in East and Southeast Turkey

The efficiency of education in East and Southeast Turkey (E&SE) has long been a subject of debate. Both regions are similar to each other and different from the other regions in terms of economy, culture, ethnic origin, and languages spoken. Sahin (1997) studied the efficiency of education in the E&SE and proposed that illiteracy is significantly the highest in both regions, the female student population is significantly lower, and students are significantly less successful in nationwide general proficiency examinations (OSS and OYS) compared to all the other regions. Social sources of failure were studied in terms of the distinguishing characteristics of both regions, from both practical and theoretical standpoints. The findings indicated inequality of educational opportunity rooted in geographical, economical, social (cultural, linguistic), and political factors.