吉林省田径运动后备人才的培养现状与发展对策

本文采用文献资料查阅、访谈、问卷调查等方法，对吉林省田径运动后备人才培养过程进行全面调查分析，并结合吉林省的实际情况提出了田径运动后备人才可持续发展的相应对策。     

Prediction in a mixed Poisson cluster model

Motivated by insurance applications, a mixed Poisson cluster model is considered, where the cluster center process is a mixed Poisson process and descendant processes are additive processes. Each point of the center process represents a claim’s reported time and descendant processes are interpreted as processes of the corresponding payments or number of payments. In this study, we focus on the process aggregating all separate claim’s payment processes. Given the past observations, we study prediction of future increments and their mean-squared errors, also revealing the dependency between future increments from non-reported (IBNR) claims and the past available information. In the existing literature, they are independent since models were considered with a purely Poissonian center process. We derive computationally reasonable expressions for predictors and their variances.     

基于聚类分析的应急物资储备分类方法研究

传统的应急物资是按照救灾中的优先级进行分类的,没有考虑物品的价值、储存寿命、生产难易程度、仓储要求等因素。从应急物资储备角度研究,按照应急物资生产、采购、储存的特性,构建应急物资储备分类体系。通过建立应急物资模糊综合评价模型,结合层次聚类方法对数据分析,确定不同种类应急物资的储备模式。     

从国际劳动力资源的利用比较中看我国现行在业模式

劳动力资源是人类社会发展最宝贵的资源。对于我国来说 ,要实现本世纪中叶赶上中等发达国家经济发展的目标 ,提高劳动力资源的利用率 ,无疑具有十分重要的现实意义。本文从各国劳动力资源利用现状的比较中 ,着重分析我国现行在业模式的状况和存在的问题 ,并提出相应的对策和建议。     

基于分类替代性关系的应急物资储备量分析

政府应急物资储备是应急管理的物质支撑力量，当前相关研究大多关注的是物资储备如何更有效的服务于应急工作，很少考虑储备成本问题。在政府资金有限的条件下，物资储备成本的最小化是提高整个应急管理效率的一个部分。将现有的主要物资储备方式实物储备、生产力储备以及合同储备根据其本质特征概括为实物储备与紧急采购储备两种类型，通过分析两大类储备方式之间的替代、互补关系的分析，容易发现两种间的替代性是不完全的。基于财政资金充分利用的考虑，究竟将政府应急物资储存量控制在一个什么样的水平才能达到既不耽误应急又使成本最低？通过具体分析，在实物储备与紧急采购储备之间的替代渐进到互补关系的区间内寻求一个临界点，这个临界点确定了一个最佳物资储备量，这个量能够满足提供不变的应急物资保障水平的前提下使物资储备的成本最小，从而实现应急资金最优化使用的目的。     

Migrants' regular army of labour: gender dimensions of the impact of the global economic crisis on migrant labor in Western Europe

The purpose of this article is to remedy the lack of explanatory endeavours concerning the positive performance of female migrant workers during the recent economic crisis in Western Europe. This phenomenon both interrogates the established association between economic downturns and their negative impact on migrant labour in low‐skilled jobs and enriches the theory of the reserve army of labour, which has been applied to understanding the fragile status of migrant workers in Western economies. Secondary analysis of Labor Force Survey (LFS) and OECD data concerning the impact of the crisis on migrant labour shows that women employed in the care‐domestic sector have been affected significantly less than men employed in manufacture and constructions. To explain this evidence, the article proposes a theoretical framework that draws on key concepts and debates in different strands of sociology: the increasing demand for paid care‐domestic work due to the ageing population and the growth of native‐born women's rates of activity; the commodification of care and the state management of migration; the affectivity and spatial fixity of care‐domestic labour. All these factors contribute to configure female migrant labour, mostly employed in the reproductive sector, as a ‘regular’ rather than a reserve army of labour.     

衡水湖国家级自然保护区的生态旅游价值研究

衡水湖国家级自然保护区是集生物多样性保护、科学研究、宣传教育、生态旅游和可持续利用为一体的天然湿地生态系统,具有重要的生态旅游价值。该文通过对衡水湖现存的自然、人文景观的考察,从生态旅游环境容量、客源市场、发展生态旅游的经济效益和管理方面,分析了衡水湖的生态旅游价值。在此基础上,文章提出了衡水湖湿地应以可持续发展理论为指导,以生态旅游为支撑,建立良性循环的湿地类型国家级自然保护区。     

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF RUIN PROBABILITIES WITH A HETEROGENEOUS AND HEAVY-TAILED INSURANCE CLAIM-SIZE DISTRIBUTION

This paper describes a Bayesian approach to make inference for risk reserve processes with an unknown claim‐size distribution. A flexible model based on mixtures of Erlang distributions is proposed to approximate the special features frequently observed in insurance claim sizes, such as long tails and heterogeneity. A Bayesian density estimation approach for the claim sizes is implemented using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. An advantage of the considered mixture model is that it belongs to the class of phase‐type distributions, and thus explicit evaluations of the ruin probabilities are possible. Furthermore, from a statistical point of view, the parametric structure of the mixtures of the Erlang distribution offers some advantages compared with the whole over‐parametrized family of phase‐type distributions. Given the observed claim arrivals and claim sizes, we show how to estimate the ruin probabilities, as a function of the initial capital, and predictive intervals that give a measure of the uncertainty in the estimations.     

地质社会化与地质科技人才素养——论现代地质科技人才的培养

现代科技向地质科技的渗透 ,促进了地质科技现代化。地质的概念从”矿产”向”社会化”转变 ,地质科技发生了从以找矿为主的”矿产型”知识结构向以服务于社会环境为主的”社会型”知识结构的飞跃转折。相应地对现代地质科技人才提出了新的知识储备和知识结构要求。     

生产能力储备模式下应急物资储备与采购定价模型

为更好地促进政企双方开展应急物资生产能力储备合作,政府和协议企业需对物资的采购定价及生产能力的储备数量进行合理决策。基于此,文章从供应链的角度出发,利用供应链契约中的数量柔性契约建立了生产能力储备模式下的应急物资储备与采购定价模型,并进一步考虑了协议企业存在储备约束的情况。在利用逆序归纳法求解出合作下企业的生产能力储备量及相应的政府采购定价决策后,文章进一步分析了储备周期内灾害事件的发生概率与企业最大储备量约束对双方决策及各自成本收益的影响,为政府的采购定价及企业的储备策略提供了科学依据。此外,文章还给出了约束双方决策时的参数条件,因而也为政府在目标企业的选择方面提供了参考。