Structural constraints and excess capacity: an international comparison of manufacturing firms

Excess capacity results in real and opportunity costs as well as lower factor productivity. Conventionally, variation in capacity utilisation rates has been explained with reference to the business cycles and market imperfections. In this article, we show that these two factors do not always fully explain the causes of idle capacity. Our findings suggest that manufacturing firms in low‐income countries tend to have lower capacity utilisation (CU) rates than those in middle‐ and upper‐middle‐income groups. To explain this peculiarity, it is proposed in this article that the level of excess capacity partly depends on supply‐side conditions and institutional variables. The findings provide strong support for this view and suggest that there are gains to be made in the manufacturing industries of the lower‐income countries through improvements in the structural conditions.     

伊迪丝·华顿在《纯真年代》中对人性的理解

伊迪丝·华顿是美国文学史上最具影响力的女性作家之一,她的作品体裁广泛,尤以小说见长.其中《纯真年代》是最具代表性的一部.通过分析华顿对几位主人公的细致刻画和描写来探寻她在这部小说中对人性的理解,认为其理解具有明显的矛盾性和局限性.这些在三位主人公身上有着很好的体现.纽兰·阿切尔是一个勇敢的懦夫和理想主义者；梅·伟兰是一个复杂的社会产物,貌似单纯无知的外表下深藏心机；艾伦·奥兰斯卡是一个对社会传统的温和的反派人物,神秘、勇敢、崇尚自由却最终只能向传统低头.这与当时的社会背景以及她本人的人生经历是密不可分的.     

Estimation of partially linear single-index additive hazards model with current status data

In this paper, we introduce a partially linear single-index additive hazards model with current status data. Both the unknown link function of the single-index term and the cumulative baseline hazard function are approximated by B-splines under a monotonicity constraint on the latter. The sieve method is applied to estimate the nonparametric and parametric components simultaneously. We show that, when the nonparametric link function is an exact B-spline, the resultant estimator of regression parameter vector is asymptotically normal and achieves the semiparametric information bound and the rate of convergence of the estimator for the cumulative baseline hazard function is optimal. Simulation studies are presented to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimation method. For illustration, we apply the method to a clinical dataset with current status outcome.     

Dealing with label switching in mixture models

In a Bayesian analysis of finite mixture models, parameter estimation and clustering are sometimes less straightforward than might be expected. In particular, the common practice of estimating parameters by their posterior mean, and summarizing joint posterior distributions by marginal distributions, often leads to nonsensical answers. This is due to the so-called 'label switching' problem, which is caused by symmetry in the likelihood of the model parameters. A frequent response to this problem is to remove the symmetry by using artificial identifiability constraints. We demonstrate that this fails in general to solve the problem, and we describe an alternative class of approaches, relabelling algorithms , which arise from attempting to minimize the posterior expected loss under a class of loss functions. We describe in detail one particularly simple and general relabelling algorithm and illustrate its success in dealing with the label switching problem on two examples.     

再论过去分词形容词的语用制约

制约是一种对语言使用产生某种限制或规约的语言运作机制。“语用制约”是指HN（名词中心词）与其前置修饰语之间在使用过程中形成的互动和限制。纵聚合语义信息制约要求APP（过去分词式形容词）必须能刻画出HN所指的超越典型的区分性特征和非常状态。最简结构制约要求APP＋HN实现语符数最小化，同时达到所承载的语义信息量最大化。从属性上看，纵聚合语义信息制约为语义性制约；而最简结构制约则为结构性制约。     

西部水电开发的生态制约与对策

水电资源开发对生态环境的影响，既有积极一面，又有消极一面。从总体上说，大型水坝给有关生态系统，特别是物种所造成的影响往往是负面多于正面。西部水电建设进入了一个与过去的技术、资金、市场机制制约完全不同的阶段——生态制约阶段。鉴于水电开发已经面临生态之忧，应当适当调整开发政策，采取相应对策，以便加强开发中的生态保护。     

Covariate selection for identifying the causal effects of stochastic interventions using causal networks

Suppose that cause-effect relationships between variables can be described by a causal network corresponding to a linear structural equation model. Kuroki and Miyakawa (2003) proposed a graphical criterion for selecting covariates to identify the causal effect of a conditional intervention. In this paper, we extend Kuroki and Miyakawa (2003) graphical criterion for selecting covariates to identify the causal effect of a stochastic intervention. Since stochastic intervention is a generalization of conditional intervention, our paper makes the results of Kuroki and Miyakawa (2003) more generally applicable.     

Bayesian Inference and Forecasting in Dynamic Neural Networks with Fully Markov Switching ARCH Noises

We deal with one-layer feed-forward neural network for the Bayesian analysis of nonlinear time series. Noises are modeled nonlinearly and nonnormally, by means of ARCH models whose parameters are all dependent on a hidden Markov chain. Parameter estimation is performed by sampling from the posterior distribution via Evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithm, in which two new crossover operators have been introduced. Unknown parameters of the model also include the missing values which can occur within the observed series, so, considering future values as missing, it is also possible to compute point and interval multi-step-ahead predictions.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Multinomial‐Poisson Models: A Generalization of Birch's Numerical Invariance Results

Abstract. This study gives a generalization of Birch's log‐linear model numerical invariance result. The generalization is given in the form of a sufficient condition for numerical invariance that is simple to verify in practice and is applicable for a much broader class of models than log‐linear models. Unlike Birch's log‐linear result, the generalization herein does not rely on any relationship between sufficient statistics and maximum likelihood estimates. Indeed the generalization does not rely on the existence of a reduced set of sufficient statistics. Instead, the concept of homogeneity takes centre stage. Several examples illustrate the utility of non‐log‐linear models, the invariance (and non‐invariance) of fitted values, and the invariance (and non‐invariance) of certain approximating distributions.     

社会资本投资与中小企业融资约束--基于中国中小板上市公司的实证分析

通过将社会资本投资因素引入欧拉投资模型,探析了社会资本投资对中小企业融资约束的动态影响,并以2008—2012年深交所中小板上市公司为研究样本,实证检验社会资本投资对中小企业融资约束的缓解作用。结果发现：中国中小企业投资支出与内部经营活动现金流显著正相关,普遍面临融资约束问题;而娱乐支出和获得直接政治关联是中小企业构建关系社会资本的有效措施,能在很大程度上缓解企业的融资约束。