Analysis of longitudinal binary data from multiphase sampling

The efficient use of surrogate or auxiliary information has been investigated within both model-based and design-based approaches to data analysis, particularly in the context of missing data. Here we consider the use of such data in epidemiological studies of disease incidence in which surrogate measures of disease status are available for all subjects at two time points, but definitive diagnoses are available only in stratified subsamples. We briefly review methods for the analysis of two-phase studies of disease prevalence at a single time point, and we discuss the extension of four of these methods to the analysis of incidence studies. Their performance is compared with special reference to a study of the incidence of senile dementia.     

On the measurement of unemployment

This paper investigates how alternative measures of unemployment may be derived from information on unemployment duration. It begins by listing various properties that unemployment indices should satisfy, and shows how ‘duration profiles’ can usefully represent unemployment data. Theorem 1 establishes that unemployment indices are unanimous iff the duration profiles do not intersect. Two families of unemployment indices are examined in detail. Both allow unemployment to be decomposed across population subgroups. In addition, they can be expressed as the product of three components reflecting the contributions of the unemployment rate, mean unemployment duration, and differences in duration among the unemployed.     

基于间接税转嫁的中国要素收入有效税负测算

 本文基于税负转嫁的视角,构造了要素收入有效税率的核算框架,详细界定了各种要素税负的核算范围,并实证测算了1995-2010年中国劳动与资本的实际有效税负。研究发现,与世界发达国家相比,我国的要素税负也并不算低。其中,间接税对居民消费的转嫁作用、增值税进项抵扣环节的重复计税是劳动、资本有效税率攀升的重要原因。     

Evidence,incidence, gender and age in sexual abuse of children perpetrated by children. Towards a developmental analysis of child sexual abuse

This paper describes a study of all children alleged to have sexually abused children in the city of Liverpool during a 12-month period. The nature of the evidence in the allegations is reviewed and each designated as ‘stronger’ or ‘weaker’. On this basis annual incidence figures are calculated for children being investigated as possibly or probably having abused another child. Systematic age banding of child perpetrators is extended to a similar age banding of alleged adult perpetrators. An adolescent is more than twice as likely to be suspected of having perpetrated CSA than any other comparable age band in adulthood or childhood. This emphasizes a developmental perspective on sexual offending across the lifespan.     

THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF A DISEASE USING HAZARD FUNCTIONS1

A prime objective of this paper is to mathematically quantify certain epidemiological concepts and show how some of these can be applied to certain registry type data. Usually epidemiological quantities are expressed in terms of density functions. However it is often more natural to estimate hazard functions in practical situations. Hence the emphasis will be on expressing various measures in terms of hazard functions. This contrasts with the useful paper of Albert, Gertman & Louis (1978) where density functions are used throughout. The definitions of some key concepts such as cohort effect are also different which gives rise to an alternative analysis and some new results. Initially, incidence, mortality and prevalence are discussed and this is followed by a treatment of initiation which is a less commonly used measure. The results are applied to the lung cancer data in the South Australian Central Cancer Registry.