演化经济学方法论述评

演化经济学方法论采用个体群思维方法研究经济问题,以达尔文主义作为哲学基础,借鉴批判实在论,强调回溯法。这使得其理论体系具有侧重于哲学思辨性而缺乏实证检验性,侧重于解释而缺乏明确的预测性的特点。个体群思维方法使得演化理论具有较强的应用性和较广的可拓展领域。达尔文主义体现了唯物论的哲学思想,更具现实性。演化经济学方法论是构建和保护演化理论的基本指导原则,也导致了它与主流经济学的强烈分歧,从而使得演化经济学处于边缘化和异端的地位。演化经济学的基本假设和具体方法为我们提供了新的研究思路和技术工具。     

Robustness measures for Bayes linear analyses

We consider the role of global robustness measures in Bayes linear analysis. We suggest two such measures, one for expectation comparisons and one for variance comparisons. Geometric interpretations of the measures are presented. The approach is illustrated by considering the robustness of certain multiplicative models to assumptions of independence, with particular application to a problem arising in an asset management model for water resources.     

君子自强不息——毛泽东独立自主思想及其传统文化渊源

独立自主思想是以毛泽东为代表的中国共产党人对中华民族传统的自强不息主体精神的自觉承继,并在复杂的革命战争年代赋予了它更为深刻的实践内涵,从而成为中国人民取得革命胜利的法宝。我们今天重新阐释这一精神传统,为的是要使它成为新时代每一个中国人的自觉追求。     

The need for new statistical legislation for the UK

Summary. The paper is written to inform public discussion on whether or not statistical legislation for the UK is needed and, if so, on its nature and content. A brief account of the background to the current position is given. The Government's stated intention is to create an 'independent statistical service' and a discussion of the meaning of independence in the context of official stat- istics and governance arrangements is provided. Recent international experience is described and the Statistics Acts of some other countries are used to distil the key features of Statistics Acts in other countries. The arguments for and against possible legislation are described. Whether or not a Statistics Act is desirable for the UK depends strongly on the legislation being well framed. There are several key issues on which Parliament would need to develop an informed view and these are set out towards the end of the paper.     

论非审计服务在独立审计中的重要作用—安然事件对我国注册会计师业的启示

美国安然公司破产、安达信审计失败的事件,引发了关于非审计服务是否有损于注册会计师审计独立性问题的争论.应该说,在必要的监管机制保证审计独立性的基本前提下,提供非审计服务是有利于注册会计师行业发展的.事件给我们的启示是既要鼓励和引导我国会计师事务所发展管理咨询等非审计服务,迎接WTO的挑战与机遇,也要加强对非审计服务的监管.     

墨西哥独立战争剖析

经过 18 10— 182 4年的独立战争 ,墨西哥摆脱了西班牙的殖民统治。但是 ,独立后旧的封建生产关系依然存在 ,人民生活水平没有明显提高。其原因是独立派阵营内部具有保守倾向的克里奥人有较大的势力 ,成为民主改革的阻力。     

中国近代司法审判权的构建途径：权力重构与制度移植

权力一元到三权分立,中国近代社会权力体系的重构可以视为社会各层面政权管理体制上的转变.作为对德、日政体仿效的结果,近代中国对司法审判权体系的认识集中体现为建立独立的司法审判机关,配置独立进行司法审判的法官.但以理想的近代分权模式完成中国政治权力体系的重构,以理想的制度设计实现新型权力规范的正常运行,在近代中国社会,面临着现实的社会适应性难题.     

Magic Thinking

Derek Freeman, When S.F. Nadel3 who was the Foundation Professor of Anthropology in the Research School of Pacific Studies at the Australian ‘National University, was on study leave in England in 1955, he recorded two talks for the BBC entitled ‘Magic Thinking’. The texts of these talks were deposited in the Department of Anthropology following Professor Nadel's death in 1956. To the best of our knowledge they have never previously been published. It is considered appropriate that these talks should appear in the first issue of Canberra Anthropology, which is being edited by research students in the discipline that Professor Nadel so effectively established at the Australian National University.     

Some Problems in Forecasting Population for Government Planning Purposes

Some governments rely on centralized, official sets of population forecasts for planning capital facilities. But the nature of population forecasting, as well as the milieu of government forecasting in general, can lead to the creation of extrapolative forecasts not well suited to long-range planning. This report discusses these matters, and suggests that custom-made forecasts and the use of forecast guidelines and a review process stressing forecast assumption justification may be a more realistic basis for planning individual facilities than general-purpose, official forecasts.     

New Developments in Statistical Computing

In 1885, Sir Francis Galton first defined the term “regression” and completed the theory of bivariate correlation. A decade later, Karl Pearson developed the index that we still use to measure correlation, Pearson's r. Our article is written in recognition of the 100th anniversary of Galton's first discussion of regression and correlation. We begin with a brief history. Then we present 13 different formulas, each of which represents a different computational and conceptual definition of r. Each formula suggests a different way of thinking about this index, from algebraic, geometric, and trigonometric settings. We show that Pearson's r (or simple functions of r) may variously be thought of as a special type of mean, a special type of variance, the ratio of two means, the ratio of two variances, the slope of a line, the cosine of an angle, and the tangent to an ellipse, and may be looked at from several other interesting perspectives.