领域知识促进创造性问题解决——专家与新手的比较

研究采用错误记忆范式和远距离联想范式，探讨了领域知识对创造性问题解决的影响。结果发现，专家比新手产生更多的错误记忆，具有更好地解决创造性问题的能力。这一结果表明，专家在领域内比新手具有更广泛的概念扩散激活，能更好地解决创造性问题，说明领域知识在创造性思维过程中所发挥的独特作用。     

Some results on dependent random variables and a connection with the multivariate s-increasing convex order

In this paper, some new concepts of dependence are introduced that generalize the concepts of positive and negative association. The new concepts of dependence are linked to the multivariate s-increasing convex order. Furthermore, a Kolmogorov-type inequality and a Hàjek–Rènyi inequality are proven that lead to an asymptotic result for these new random objects.     

社区互助养老与村办敬老院可持续运营——以福建省晋江市萧下村敬老院为例*

社区互助养老是指在社区组织动员下，社区居民本着志愿互助原则以无偿或低偿形式提供场所、资金与劳务，以支持社区养老事业的发展。本文以晋江市萧下村敬老院为个案，介绍社区互助养老机制在村办敬老院的实践情况，有效降低运营成本，实现村办敬老院可持续发展。萧下村敬老院由村老年协会管理，老年协会与宗祠管委会重合，社区资源动员能力强。     

The indirect method for stochastic logistic growth models

We developed the indirect method for stochastic logistic growth models involving both birth and death rates in the drift and diffusion coefficients, and not only propose two indirect estimators, but also construct a likelihood ratio-type indirect statistic for testing hypotheses concerning parameters. Simulations show that the proposed two indirect estimators can correct the discretization bias, and the proposed indirect test possesses very good estimated power and size.     

A proportional-reduction-in-impurity measure of association for categorical variables

This paper presents a proportional-reduction-in-impurity (PRI) measure for categorical association, that employs application-dependent loss functions which make the measure widely applicable. The well-known proportional -reduction-in-error (PRE) measure is shown to be a special case of the new PRI measure. Moreover, the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the measure is derived to facilitate its use for statistical inference. An extension of the PRI measure to compositional association is made to show that it can have a variety of applications. Selected loss functions are treated to illustrate the derivation of the measure.     

Exact tests for two-way symmetriccontingency tables

A two-way contingency table in which both variables have the same categories is termed a symmetric table. In many applications, because of the social processes involved, most of the observations lie on the main diagonal and the off-diagonal counts are small. For these tables, the model of independence is implausible and interest is then focussed on the off-diagonal cells and the models of quasi-independence and quasi-symmetry. For ordinal variables, a linear-by-linear association model can be used to model the interaction structure. For sparse tables, large-sample goodness-of-fit tests are often unreliable and one should use an exact test. In this paper, we review exact tests and the computing problems involved. We propose new recursive algorithms for exact goodness-of-fit tests of quasi-independence, quasi-symmetry, linear-by-linear association and some related models. We propose that all computations be carried out using symbolic computation and rational arithmetic in order to calculate the exact p-values accurately and describe how we implemented our proposals. Two examples are presented.     

丹尼尔·笛福的保险互助思想述评

文章旨在介绍丹尼尔·笛福以保险互助为代表的社会福利思想。为预防贫困,化解生活风险,笛福建议在海员、妇女等特殊群体以及普通劳动者中推行互助会和年金局计划。他对互助会和年金局的概念、原理、运作机制及功能等进行了详尽说明。文章认为笛福的保险互助思想具有问题预见性、理念先进性与计划可行性三大特点,但也存在保险性质不明、缺乏稳定性、理想化色彩浓厚等缺点。结合工业革命前夕的社会特点,文章认为这种以追求人类福祉为己任的保险互助思想值得肯定。     

天地会在壮族地区的传播和发展

天地会最早活动在福建南部一带 ,清嘉庆、道光年间蔓延到长江以南各个省区。其中广西的天地会发展最为迅速 ,道光中叶以后即成为洪门活动的重点区域之一。壮族是广西天地会的主要力量 ,也是参加天地会活动人数最多的少数民族。这与当时广西的社会状况、壮族的社会文化结构和天地会的宗旨及组织形式有极大的关系。从 19世纪中叶到 2 0世纪初 ,天地会在壮族地区组织了持续不断的反清起义 ,对近代中国和近代壮族的社会发展都产生了影响     

A temporal correlation function for the association between patient‐reported outcome and clinical endpoints

For clinical trials with multiple endpoints, the primary interest is usually to evaluate the relationship of these endpoints and treatment interventions. Studying the correlation of two clinical trial endpoints can also be of interests. For example, the association between patient‐reported outcome and clinically assessed endpoint could answer important research questions and also generate interesting hypothesis for future research. However, it is not straightforward to quantify such association. In this article, we proposed a multiple event approach to profile such association with a temporal correlation function, visualized by a correlation function plot over time with a confidence band. We developed this approach by extending the existing methodology in recurrent event literature. This approach was shown to be generally unbiased and could be a useful tool for data visualization and inference. We demonstrated the use of this method with data from a real clinical trial. Although this approach was developed to evaluate the association between patient‐reported outcome and adverse events, it can also be used to evaluate the association of any two endpoints that can be translated to time‐to‐event endpoints. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

秉承行业协会理念 构建中国农民合作组织体系

随着我国市场经济体制的不断完善,如何在新形势下提高农民组织化程度日益成为人们关注的热点问题。中国需要一个能够在农民与市场、政府、社会之间发挥有效作用的中介组织。从发达国家的成功经验看,这个中介组织就是农业行业协会。但是在中国,人们对行业协会的理解却存在误区。鉴于此,我们从论述行业协会的定义、属性、职能出发,继而探讨农业领域行业协会的独特性,最终提出秉承行业协会理念、构建中国农民合作组织体系的必要性与可行性建议。