Building relational possibilities: theoretical roots of infant mental health practice in the case of Alycia

The practice of infant mental health (IMH) has evolved from a combination of theoretical frameworks focused upon early relationships and the complex interplay between individuals and their internal and external worlds. The main components of IMH practice: developmental guidance; emotional support; parent–infant psychotherapy; concrete support; and advocacy, demonstrate a connection between psychoanalytic theoretical frameworks and social work values and forms the basis of practice for IMH therapeutic programmes. This paper will trace the theoretical roots of IMH practice and utilise a clinical case example to illustrate the ways in which insights from object relational, self psychological and attachment theories are integrated into IMH home visiting practices.     

An extension of the Freund's bivariate distribution to model cascading failures

The notion of cascading failures is a common phenomenon we observe around us. Here the initial failure alters the structure function of the system, which leads to subsequent failures within a short period of time referred to as threshold time. The concept of cascading failures within the framework of reliability theory and the Freund bivariate exponential distribution to model cascading failures has been studied by few authors. The Freund bivariate exponential distribution allows modelling a parallel redundant system with two components. In this system, the lifetimes of the two components behave as if they are independent, until one of the components fail, after which the remaining component suffers an increased/decreased stress. In this article, we further generalize this model to accommodate cascading failures. Various properties of the model are investigated and statistical inference procedures are developed using L-moments and method of moments. A practical application of this model is illustrated using data from www.espncricinfo.com. Also well analysed Diabetic Retinopathy Study (DRS) data is further analysed using this model and our findings are presented.     

A cost of living longer: Projections of the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for 14 advanced economies

The economic implications of increasing life expectancy are important concerns for governments in developed countries. The aims of this study were as follows: (i) to forecast mortality for 14 developed countries from 2010 to 2050, using the Poisson Common Factor Model; (ii) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on support ratios; and (iii) to calculate labour force participation increases which could offset these effects. The forecast gains in life expectancy correlate negatively with current fertility. Pre-2050 support ratios are projected to fall most in Japan and east-central and southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. A post-2050 recovery is projected for most east-central and southern European countries. The increases in labour force participation needed to counterbalance the effects of mortality improvement are greatest for Japan, Poland, and the Czech Republic, and least for the USA, Canada, Netherlands, and Sweden. The policy implications are discussed.     

关于语言经济原则的反思

语言经济原则是指导人类行为的一条根本性准则。经济性的语言节省了交流时间,提高了交际效率,满足了交际双方的省力需求。省力的动机不仅存在于发话人的言语生成过程中,也存在于受话人的言语理解过程中。单方面强调自身的省力欲望,不仅会降低交际效率,还可能导致交际失误,所以应注意语言经济原则的负相关性,优化配置语言资源。在实际的言语交际中,语言经济原则存在诸多不足,如省略引起交际失误,替代、指代带来交际障碍,共享知识的缺省导致交际失败。只有在语言能够充分明晰地表达意义和情感的前提下,才能使用语言经济原则。     

创意产业集群网络相继故障风险研究

创意产业集群存在的结构性、周期性和网络性等风险,在发生时往往表现为一种相继故障过程。基于复杂网络上的负荷-容量模型研究了创意产业集群网络的相继故障演化过程,重点讨论了创意产业集群网络的结构特征、创意企业自身特征分布的差异性和集群系统风险之间的关系,并在此基础上探索了创意产业集群的风险防范机制,这对于促进创意产业集群的持续发展具有重要理论和实践意义。     

俄罗斯人口高死亡率论析

当代俄罗斯的人口死亡率转变与世界趋势相比,有很大的不同。介绍俄罗斯人口死亡率的测量指标,分析对其产生影响的变量,得出几点结论。苏联20世纪50年代以前人口死亡率高首先是外生变量作用的结果,当代俄罗斯人口死亡率高,内生变量的因素上升为第一位,但是外生变量作用的结果也不容忽视。尽管俄罗斯国内普遍认识到高死亡率给国家安全带来的危害程度并不亚于20世纪90年代初期实行的"休克疗法",但是,这种高死亡率的人口态势是俄罗斯无法避免的一个发展阶段,有其必然性。     

不同地域女性自杀死亡率差异的经济原因分析——基于城乡差距的视角

自杀是一个值得重视和研究的特殊社会问题,中国自杀现象的基本特征：女性高于男性,农村高于城市。本文基于我国城乡差异的视角,分析我国社会转型时期城乡女性自杀死亡率差异的经济原因。最后从缩小城乡差距,改善农村妇女经济地位的角度提出相应的预防措施。     

Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.

中国生育现代化问题的定量研究

本文主要对我国生育现代化进行了一些定量研究 ,构造了生育现代化综合指数 ,在历史及省际比较的基础上认为我国生育现代化自建国以来呈波浪形上升演进过程 ,省际差异大而且生育现代化内部各方面发展不平衡。