THE USE OF AGGREGATE DATA TO ESTIMATE GOMPERTZ‐TYPE OLD‐AGE MORTALITY IN HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIONS

We consider two related aspects of the study of old‐age mortality. One is the estimation of a parameterized hazard function from grouped data, and the other is its possible deceleration at extreme old age owing to heterogeneity described by a mixture of distinct sub‐populations. The first is treated by half of a logistic transform, which is known to be free of discretization bias at older ages, and also preserves the increasing slope of the log hazard in the Gompertz case. It is assumed that data are available in the form published by official statistical agencies, that is, as aggregated frequencies in discrete time. Local polynomial modelling and weighted least squares are applied to cause‐of‐death mortality counts. The second, related, problem is to discover what conditions are necessary for population mortality to exhibit deceleration for a mixture of Gompertz sub‐populations. The general problem remains open but, in the case of three groups, we demonstrate that heterogeneity may be such that it is possible for a population to show decelerating mortality and then return to a Gompertz‐like increase at a later age. This implies that there are situations, depending on the extent of heterogeneity, in which there is at least one age interval in which the hazard function decreases before increasing again.     

新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的演变规律及分布特征分析

本文根据《新疆辉煌50年》及三次人口普查数据,分析了新疆维吾尔自治区历年来死亡率、死亡人数、死亡率模式、平均预期寿命等指标的演变过程及分布特征,试图揭示新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的内在变动规律,为计划生育及相关政府部门制定政策提供依据。     

Maternal mortality: What can we learn from stories of postpartum haemorrhage?

Death from pregnancy is rare in developed countries such as Australia but is still common in third world and developing countries. The investigation of each maternal death yields valuable information and lessons that all health care providers involved with the care of women can learn from. The aim of these investigations is to prevent future maternal morbidity and mortality.Obstetric haemorrhage remains a leading cause of maternal death internationally. It is the most common cause of death in developing countries. In Australia and the United Kingdom, obstetric haemorrhage is ranked as the 4th and 3rd most common cause of direct maternal death respectively. In a number of cases there are readily identifiable factors associated with the care that the women received that may have contributed to their death. It is from these identifiable factors that both midwives and doctors can learn to help prevent similar episodes from occurring.This article will identify some of the lessons that can be learnt from the recent Australian and UK maternal death reports. This paper presents an overview of the process and systems for the reporting of maternal death in Australia. It will then specifically focus on obstetric haemorrhage, with a focus on postpartum haemorrhage, for the 12-year period, 1994–2005. Vignettes from the maternal mortality reports in Australia and the United Kingdom are used to highlight the important lessons for providers of maternity care.     

The effect of number of siblings on adult mortality: Evidence from Swedish registers for cohorts born between 1938 and 1972

Demographic research has paid much attention to the impact of childhood conditions on adult mortality. We focus on one of the key aspects of early life conditions, sibling group size, and examine the causal effect of growing up in a large family on mortality. While previous studies have focused on low- or middle-income countries, we examine whether growing up in a large family is a disadvantage in Sweden, a context where most parents have adequate resources, which are complemented by a generous welfare state. We used Swedish register data and frailty models, examining all-cause and cause-specific mortality between the ages of 40 and 74 for the 1938–72 cohorts, and also a quasi-experimental approach that exploited multiple births as a source of exogenous variation in the number of siblings. Overall our results do not indicate that growing up in a large family has a detrimental effect on longevity in Sweden.     

Inequality and demographic response to short-term economic stress in North Orkney,Scotland, 1855–1910: Sector differences

We examine economic inequality and social differences in infant and child mortality, and fertility responses to food price changes in North Orkney, 1855–1910, using linked vital records. This small population featured a diverse occupational structure, limited land resources, and geographic isolation from mainland Scotland. Segments of Orkney’s non-agricultural working population were living so close to the margin of subsistence in normal years that an increase in food prices in bad years cost the lives of their children. Delayed childbearing, in addition to increased labour intensity, occupational diversification, and poor relief, failed to mitigate the negative effects of unfavourable prices in this group. While previous studies for Western Europe show a strong social gradient in mortality responses to food prices, and for Eastern Asia a strong household gradient, this study shows a strong sectoral gradient, indicating low standards of living for the non-agricultural working population well into the twentieth century.     

Mortality among elder abuse victims in rural Malaysia: A two-year population-based descriptive study

Our study aims at describing mortality among reported elder abuse experiences in rural Malaysia. This is a population-based cohort study with a multistage cluster sampling method. Older adults in Kuala Pilah (n = 1,927) were interviewed from November 2013 to May 2014. Mortality was traced after 2 years using the National Registration Department database. Overall, 139 (7.2%) respondents died. Fifteen (9.6%) abuse victims died compared to 124 (7.0%) not abused. Mortality was highest with financial abuse (13%), followed by psychological abuse (10.8%). There was a dose-response relationship between mortality and clustering of abuse: 7%, 7.7%, and 14.0% for no abuse, one type, and two types or more, respectively. Among abuse victims, 40% of deaths had ill-defined causes, 33% were respiratory-related, and 27% had cardiovascular and metabolic origin. Results suggest a link between abuse and mortality. Death proportions varied according to abuse subtypes and gender.     

未成年子女姓名权的法律思考

姓名权是自然人决定、使用和变更自己姓名的权利。由于行为能力的限制,未成年子女的姓名决定权和变更权让渡给其监护人行使。但由于监护人意志的冲突,实务中经常发生各式各样的子女姓名纠纷,而现行法对这一问题的涉及则明显不足。为此,针对未成年子女姓名权的特殊性、实务中常见的子女姓名纠纷、现行法对该问题的规定等方面试作探讨,以引出处理此类纠纷的法律原则,并尝试提出些许建议。     

伦理视角下的工程失败问题

工程失败以对生命造成显在或潜在危害,投入和收效成反比,失误超过可控范围并造成人财损失以及对环境的可持续发展造成巨大破坏等等为特征;个体利益与职业伦理的矛盾、团体利益与社会公益的矛盾是导致工程失败的价值根源;工程师、施工团队、企业以及政府等不同工程主体的角色伦理冲突是导致工程失败的主体根源。对此,应以富有伦理和法律意义的责任概念为核心,从预防、监督、惩戒、伦理约束等方面着手,以解决问题。     

Survival Convergence and the Preceding Mortality Crossover for Two Population Subgroups

In this paper, we present and develop the argument that if the survival functions for two population subgroups converge in later life, a mortality crossover must precede the occurrence of this convergence. Specifically, two survival curves, S ₁(x) and S ₂(x), associated with two distinct population subgroups, G₁ and G₂, tend to converge before all members die out, as often observed and anticipated. This convergence leads to an increased mortality acceleration for the “advantaged” group, and eventually fosters the occurrence of a mortality crossover. We present a mathematical proof for this relationship and offer several explanations for the mechanisms involved in the process of survival convergence and the preceding mortality crossover. This new presentation demonstrates that mortality crossover is a highly observable demographic event given the trend of survival convergence in later life.     

The politics of midwifery education and training in New South Wales during the last decades of the 19th Century

This paper focuses on the introduction and development of midwifery education and training in Sydney during the last decades of the 19th century. The aim of the training, it is argued, was to displace the lay midwives by trained midwifery nurses who would work under medical control. The lay midwives were one of the largest occupational groups among women and two-thirds of births in NSW were being delivered by them in the late 19th century. It was a period of professionalisation of medicine and medical men laid claim to midwifery as a legitimate sphere of their practice and saw it as the gateway for establishing a family practice. The lay midwife stood in the way of their claim. The training programs were established purportedly to control maternal mortality. From the beginning in 1887 medical men were in control of midwifery nurse training. In addition to training at the Benevolent Society Asylum, three more women's hospitals were established in the 1890s in Sydney making it possible to train a stream of midwifery nurses. The midwifery nurses were charged exorbitant fees for their training; the fees contributed substantially towards running the new hospitals that delivered birth services to the poor and destitute women mostly in their homes. The midwifery nurses worked hard in miserable conditions under the guise of clinical experience required for training. When a critical mass of poorly trained midwifery nurses were in the offing, a Bill was introduced into the Parliament in 1895, restricting registration to midwifery nurses and this would have eliminated the lay midwife if passed. It took more than two decades to get a Registration Bill passed in the NSW Parliament.