论当前的物欲型犯罪

当前的物欲型犯罪有其经济根源和直接原因 ,其动机、行为方式及侵害对象具有一些带规律性的特点 ;犯罪人在市场经济中的地位 ,决定了其犯罪动机和行为方式。尤其少部分身居高位、掌握实权的领导干部或国有企业负责人对个人财富、权力的不当追求 ,导致权钱交易、化公为私 ,造成国有财产的大量流失。这种犯罪不断发生的重要原因是 ,国有财产所有者虚位 ;应从源头上遏制此类犯罪的蔓延     

Residual analysis for spatial point processes (with discussion)

Summary.  We define residuals for point process models fitted to spatial point pattern data, and we propose diagnostic plots based on them. The residuals apply to any point process model that has a conditional intensity; the model may exhibit spatial heterogeneity, interpoint interaction and dependence on spatial covariates. Some existing ad hoc methods for model checking (quadrat counts, scan statistic, kernel smoothed intensity and Berman's diagnostic) are recovered as special cases. Diagnostic tools are developed systematically, by using an analogy between our spatial residuals and the usual residuals for (non-spatial) generalized linear models. The conditional intensity λ plays the role of the mean response. This makes it possible to adapt existing knowledge about model validation for generalized linear models to the spatial point process context, giving recommendations for diagnostic plots. A plot of smoothed residuals against spatial location, or against a spatial covariate, is effective in diagnosing spatial trend or co-variate effects. Q – Q -plots of the residuals are effective in diagnosing interpoint interaction.     

信息技术在图书馆采编工作中的应用

信息技术的应用和普及对图书工作产生了革命性的影响，章对信息技术快速存储信息，快速处理信息，远距离传送信息等功能进行了分析，探讨了当前网络环境下信息技术在图书馆采编工作中的意义和作用。     

如何从理论与实践高度认识高校后勤服务社会化

高校后勤社会化要建立服务主体企业化、服务成果商品化、服务对象社会化、服务方式多样化的新体制、新机制。它必须解决好高校内部服务的价格问题 ,实行转制后职工的分流问题。还必须处理好两个关系 :一是后勤服务社会化与“三服务、二育人”的关系 ,二是后勤服务社会化与稳定和发展的关系。     

An individual measure of relative survival

Summary.  Relative survival techniques are used to compare survival experience in a study cohort with that expected if background population rates apply. The techniques are especially useful when cause-specific death information is not accurate or not available as they provide a measure of excess mortality in a group of patients with a certain disease. Whereas these methods are based on group comparisons, we present here a transformation approach which instead gives for each individual an outcome measure relative to the appropriate background population. The new outcome measure is easily interpreted and can be analysed by using standard survival analysis techniques. It provides additional information on relative survival and gives new options in regression analysis. For example, one can estimate the proportion of patients who survived longer than a given percentile of the respective general population or compare survival experience of individuals while accounting for the population differences. The regression models for the new outcome measure are different from existing models, thus providing new possibilities in analysing relative survival data. One distinctive feature of our approach is that we adjust for expected survival before modelling. The paper is motivated by a study into the survival of patients after acute myocardial infarction.     

城市老年住宅建设经营市场化运作模式探讨

随着城市人口老龄化的加速、家庭结构的变化和人们思想观念的转变,中国传统的家庭养老方式受到挑战,探索老年住宅市场化运作的多种方式,提高老人的生活质量,已经成为一个迫切需要研究和解决的社会问题。     

再论《国殇》与《九歌》

《九歌》是屈原在民间“九歌”基础上写定的 ,可以认为是屈原所作或创造的。《国殇》是为牺牲的楚国将士而举行驱鬼活动的主祭歌。《国殇》以外的《九歌》其他篇 ,主要是表现对九位天神地的恭敬、赞美和依恋 ,《九歌》中的神、巫、人、鬼关系 ,就是一个由人和巫迎请神、送行鬼魂的过程     

构建我国错案责任追究制度的立论基础

权力制约理论是错案责任追究制度近代化、理性化的科学依据 ,也是构建我国错案责任追究制度的理论基础。我国文化传统的惯性和特殊的社会结构是构建我国错案责任追制度的现实基础 ;实体正义与程序正义并重则是我们构建这一制度的价值基础     

普通师范院校音乐专业教育教学改革初探

普通师范院校音乐教育专业传统办学模式 ,在改革开放的今天 ,已不适应新形势的发展 ,存在着诸多弊端。为了适应我国入世的新形势和配合素质教育 ,本文针对存在的问题 ,提出了一系列教改构想 ,若能有效实施 ,必将为新形势的需要和基础音乐教育培养出新一代高素质的专业人才 ,推进中、小学素质教育向纵深发展     

On Block Updating in Markov Random Field Models for Disease Mapping

Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components.