西方通货膨胀目标制的实证分析及对我国的启示

通货膨胀目标制是一个新兴的货币政策框架。通过分析两组西方国家利率、通货膨胀率和产出缺口的变动,发现中央银行实行通货膨胀目标制可以降低利率和通货膨胀率的短期波动。同时,泰勒规则值分析表明通货膨胀目标制使中央银行对产出和通货膨胀的反应发生了改变。实证结果对我国的货币政策中介目标向通货膨胀目标制过渡有重大启示。     

On an Integral Related to the Burr XII Distribution

This article considers an integral which arises in the consideration of the Fisher Information for Pareto, Burr, and related distributions, and which has also been considered by Brazauskas (2003 Brazauskas , V. ( 2003 ). Information matrix for Pareto (IV), Burr, and related distributions . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 32 : 315 – 325 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The approach here is, arguably, simpler, and the methods involved in establishing it here are capable of generalization.     

A Bayes Theorem Urn Model Optimization Problem

An urn model is a finite collection of indistinguishable urns together with an arbitrary distribution of a finite number of balls (bills) of k colors (denominations) into the urns. A Bayes theorem expectation optimization problem associated with certain urn models is discussed.     

浅析当前中国通货膨胀的现状、成因及治理

通货膨胀是指货币发行量超过流通中实际需要量而引起的货币贬值和物价持续上涨的经济现象,它是纸币流通条件下特有的经济范畴。当前,我国正经历着比较严重的通货膨胀,基于这样的背景,通过研究我国通货膨胀的现状及成因,提出治理当前通货膨胀的一般对策。     

我国通货膨胀决定因素的计量分析

本文对我国总需求因素、货币因素和生产成本因素对通货膨胀的影响进行计量研究。通过测算菲利普斯曲线的动态变化,本文认为产出缺口对我国通货膨胀的影响呈现稳定下降的趋势,这说明总需求对我国通货膨胀的拉动效应在减小。本文选择了对通货膨胀具有重要影响的货币因素和产品购进价格因素,利用NBER方法分别计算合成指数,并将得到的合成指数与反映工资成本的指标共同引入扩展的菲利普斯曲线中,模型计算结果表明,货币因素和生产成本对物价具有显著的推动效应。因此,本文认为,在当前我国紧缩的货币政策背景下,产品购进价格尤其是工资成本的上升是通货膨胀率居高不下的决定性原因。     

混合预期噪声交易模型及我国证券市场非理性交易的实证分析

 证券资产作为以获取未来收益为目的投资工具,它在价格形成及其市场运行模式上都取决于投资者的预期。基于有效市场假说（EMH）的资产定价理论虽然在理论体系及其形式化上都给出了完美的解决方案,但投资者理性和投资者具有完全一致的预期这两个基本假定在现实证券市场投资中却难以得到满足。本文更现实地依据投资者预期形成的差异,讨论了非一致有限理性预期下的证券市场价格的决定,提出了基于混合预期的噪声交易模型。同时本文还利用上海证券市场的相关实际数据,对该模型进行了实证检验,从而克服了行为金融学中噪声交易模型不能用于实证分析的障碍。     

The ECB’s new inflation target from a short- and long-term perspective

The ECB’s target was recently revised, specifying that the 2%-inflation-rate threshold must be applied symmetrically and with a medium-term orientation. In the current phase, characterized by high inflation rates and a growing risk of stagnation in the euro area, this revision of the monetary policy strategy is crucial for explaining the recent decisions of the ECB and forecasting their possible evolution. However, monetary policy can only become one of many policy tools in the euro area. Therefore, there is room for a compelling policy mix necessary to control excessive inflation and to support the medium-term sustainable growth of the European economy.     

Fed's monetary policy mistake and the US post-COVID economic recovery

This paper argues that the persistent inflation in the U.S. during the post-COVID economic recovery was mainly the result of the Fed’s policy mistake caused by an overestimation of the negative output gap. The paper shows that after a two-quarter contraction, the U.S. economy quickly rebounded and outpaced its potential output, thus remaining in overheating territory. However, policymakers prolonged the monetary expansion beyond the necessary, which contributed to fuel inflation for a more prolonged time. The policy mistake was the result of an inaccurate estimation of potential output. Based on an alternative estimation that uses full employment as a condition, this paper shows that the U.S. economy has been running with a positive output gap since mid-2021. The results illustrate that the Federal Reserve was well-behind the curve in an economy in overexpansion and with a galloping inflation escalating well-above the target.