隐含信息翻译的关联性原则

翻译的一个主要问题是如何处理原文中的隐含信息。译者可能明示隐含的意义,也可能对等翻译,但如不考虑原文和译文语境的话,这两种策略都存在风险。关联理论揭示,成功的翻译关键在于原文和译文具有解释相似性,翻译的最高标准是达到受众期望于译者所传达的语境效果,而不是符合具体的翻译范式。本文根据关联理论的启示探讨了翻译隐含信息所遵循的一些基本原则。     

Trend inflation,the labor market wedge,and the non-vertical Phillips curve

Recent developments in macroeconomics resurrect the view that welfare costs of inflation arise because the latter acts as a tax on money balances. Empirical contributions show that wage re-negotiations take place while expiring contracts are still in place. Bringing these seemingly unrelated aspects together in a stylized general equilibrium model, we find a disciplining effect of a positive inflation target on the wage markup and identify a long-term trade-off between inflation and output. This has important policy implications, ranging from the opportunity of revising the target in response to shocks, to the possibility of exploiting inflation as a tool to increase tax revenues via its employment-enhancing effect.     

Expectations of inflation: The biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices

National surveys follow consumers’ expectations of future inflation, because these may directly affect the economic choices they make, indirectly affect macro-economic outcomes, and are considered in monetary policy. Yet, relatively little is known about how individuals form the inflation expectations they report on consumer surveys. Medians of reported inflation expectations tend to track official estimates of realized inflation, but show large heterogeneity between respondents, due to some expecting seemingly extreme inflation. We present two studies to examine whether individuals who consider specific price changes when forming their inflation expectations report more extreme and disagreeing inflation expectations due to focusing on specific extreme price changes. In Study 1, participants who were instructed to recall any price changes or to recall the largest price changes both thought of items for which price changes were perceived to have been extreme. Moreover, they reported more extreme year-ahead inflation expectations and showed more disagreement than did a third group that had been asked to recall the average change in price changes. Study 2 asked participants to report their year-ahead expectations of inflation, without first prompting them to recall specific price changes. Half of participants nevertheless thought of specific prices when generating their inflation expectations. Those who thought of specific prices reported more extreme and more disagreeing inflation expectations, because they were biased towards various items associated with more extreme perceived price changes. Our findings provide new insights into expectation formation processes and have implications for the design of survey-based measures of inflation.     

期望状态与地位等级秩序的维持

社会地位的等级系统具有超强稳定性。人们在日常交往中主动建构地位等级,并维持着这种不平等的秩序。期望状态论认为,互动参与者绩效期望的不同导致了他们之间的地位分化以及体现此分化的互动行为差异。地位特征、社会回报和行为互换模式是影响期望形成与改变的主要因素。期望状态研究方案指导下的诸分支观点对各类不平等现象进行的一般性解释,增进了我们对广义不平等产生和再生产的理解,为谋求减少不平等的策略提供重要思路。     

房地产市场、股票市场与通货膨胀的联动性分析——基于VAR模型的实证研究

利用VAR模型,通过ADF单位根检验、脉冲效应分析、方差分析的计量方法可对我国房地产市场、股票市场和通货膨胀的联动关系进行实证分析。分析结果表明：房价上涨刺激通货膨胀,通货膨胀对房价的影响方向是不确定的;通货膨胀推动股价上涨,股价上涨会推动通货膨胀;房价上涨会抑制股价,股价对房价的影响则较为复杂,且两者之间的关系并不十分显著。基于目前通货膨胀的影响,政府对股市、房市的调控方向应为：引导投资房地产行为趋理性化;强效抑制房地产市场趋白热化;稳健控制股票市场更趋规范化。     

货币流动性、通货膨胀与我国货币政策走向探析

金融危机以来,新一轮通货膨胀给我国现实经济生活带来的影响已经显现。分析通货膨胀的决定因素并回顾我国自金融危机以来的货币政策可知,当前的货币政策应该关注更广泛意义上的价格变动,关注一般竞争性产品价格下降与资源、资产价格上涨之间的内在矛盾,并应谨慎使用利率工具。     

新冠疫情影响下哈萨克斯坦宏观经济走势与未来前景分析

受新冠疫情蔓延、外部需求骤减以及能源价格暴跌等不利因素影响,哈萨克斯坦2020—2021年经济增长压力倍增,一度出现负增长,外贸大幅萎缩,失业率上升,汇率持续贬值,通胀率居高不下,财政赤字扩大。从部门来看,服务业受疫情冲击最为严重,采矿业出现负增长,但农业和建筑业增长迅速。在反危机政策的背景下,哈萨克斯坦实施了宽松的财政、货币政策,有效地降低了新冠疫情等对经济社会形成的负向损耗。     

Can unemployment forecasts based on Google Trends help government design better policies? An investigation based on Spain and Portugal

The Covid-19 pandemic has increased the unemployment issue and accelerated the digital transformation. Real-time data specific to ongoing revolution in applied economic analysis are increasingly demanded to anticipate changes in unemployment to improve decision-making. The aim of this paper is to test whether unemployment rate forecasts based on Google Trends data improve the predictions based only on macroeconomic indicators published with a longer time lag. The research has been carried out at the national level for Spain and Portugal, and the main novelty is the analysis of unemployment rate forecasts at the regional level for Spain using dynamic panel data models to implement the best policies to reduce unemployment. The keywords unemployment and job offers have been used in each language. The results obtained demonstrate the capacity of Google Trends data associated with unemployment to improve the predictions of unemployment rates in Spanish regions. Moreover, predictions based on Google Trends data at national level in Spain and Portugal are significantly more accurate than those based on autoregressive models for both countries.     

Inflation targeting and its spillover effects on financial stability in emerging market economies

In this paper, we study whether adoption of inflation targeting monetary policy framework has spillover effects on financial stability in emerging market economies. Working with data for 64 emerging market economies, we develop financial stability and sector specific stability indices and identify the effect using dynamic panel data models in difference-in-difference framework. We find significant positive spillover effects of inflation targeting adoption on banking system resilience and external capital inflows arising from improved transparency and accountability of the central banks. Based on the results, the paper recommends to emerging market economies which are currently under inflation targeting lite regime, to adopt full-fledged inflation targeting monetary policy.     

新乡贤治村研究:文献回顾与探索展望

新乡贤治村研究是近年兴起的一个重要议题。回顾文献发现,现有文献集中关注新乡贤治村何以提出、何以可能、何以必要、何以可为、何以推进等方面,聚焦于生发依据、内外条件、功能意义、方式逻辑、问题对策等内容。总体上,研究内容的幅度和深度不够,研究方法缺少有深度的实证主义研究范式的探索和思考,研究理论的原创性和贡献度还有待提升是现有文献存在的问题。未来研究应该不断拓展和深化关于新乡贤治村的研究内容,坚持研究方法多元化,着力构建和形成新乡贤治村研究的本土理论话语体系。研究对于新时代深入探索新乡贤治村问题具有借鉴意义。