“视界融合”和“期待视野”概念下译者地位的彰显

传统译论下译者被定为"仆人"地位,这极大地限制了译者在翻译过程中其应有作用的发挥.然而在后结构主义研究范式下,译者的地位得到了前所未有的提高,哲学解释学和接受美学便是后结构主义的两种理论.本文拟从哲学解释学中的"视界融合"概念和接受美学的"期待视野"概念入手,论述译者地位的彰显.     

Economic performance under different monetary policy frameworks

We examine the economic performance (inflation and growth) associated with different monetary policy frameworks, presenting unconditional and conditional analyses, and using predictions of countries’ monetary policy framework choices to address the issue of endogeneity. We find some differences in performance associated with the different monetary policy frameworks, together with a general improvement over time which is explained in part by the trends towards inflation targeting and more precise monetary control, that is from changes in the choice of framework, but in part, and perhaps more strongly, reflects a more general trend towards better economic performance related to changes in decision-making within the frameworks. Our results suggest that the choice of MPF is an important, but by no means the only, determinant of economic performance, and therefore not the only consideration for policymakers looking to improve economic performance.     

How beauty works. Theoretical mechanisms and two empirical applications on students' evaluation of teaching

Plenty of studies show that the physical appearance of a person affects a variety of outcomes in everyday life. However, due to an incomplete theoretical explication and empirical problems in disentangling different beauty effects, it is unclear which mechanisms are at work. To clarify how beauty works we present explanations from evolutionary theory and expectation states theory and show where both perspectives differ and where interlinkage appears promising. Using students' evaluations of teaching we find observational and experimental evidence for the different causal pathways of physical attractiveness. First, independent raters strongly agree over the physical attractiveness of a person. Second, attractive instructors receive better student ratings. Third, students attend classes of attractive instructors more frequently – even after controlling for teaching quality. Fourth, we find no evidence that attractiveness effects become stronger if rater and ratee are of the opposite sex. Finally, the beauty premium turns into a penalty if an attractive instructor falls short of students' expectations.     

INDEX TO VOLUME 5 (1987)

Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation gaps differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event. Part of the problem is that the data on which the real-time estimates are based is subsequently revised. We show that vector-autoregressive models of data vintages provide forecasts of post-revision values of future observations and of already-released observations capable of improving estimates of output and inflation gaps in real time. Our findings indicate that annual revisions to output and inflation data are in part predictable based on their past vintages. This article has online supplementary materials.     

More Flexible Use of Survey Data on Expectations in Macroeconomic Models

A flexible procedure is proposed whereby both the random and systematic errors in measurement of survey data on inflation expectations can be appropriately handled when these surveys are used in the estimation of macroeconomic models. During the period 1952–1980, Livingston's two expectations series and the SRC series systematically underestimated inflation expectations by nearly 25%. The ASA–NBER survey, however, does not exhibit such underestimation. Thus, the use of the Livingston or SRC data as an unbiased measure of the true expectations of inflation would result in overestimation of the Fisher effect and the ex ante real interest rate.     

PPI与CPI关系及我国通货膨胀治理

 PPI和CPI关系是宏观经济研究热点问题之一。通过TS季节调整模型和HP滤波方法对1993年1月-2010年7月定基PPI和CPI进行分解，得到趋势、季节、不规则和循环因素。发现两者的趋势、季节和不规则因素间的传导和“倒挂”不显著，增强了用循环因素研究两者关系的科学性。研究发现，（1）两者间传导和“倒挂”交替出现，分别经历两个周期，均在第二周期波谷处逆转。传导和“倒挂”时隔有明显周期。（2）2003年前PPI向CPI传导的原因为投资膨胀、卖方市场等。2003年后PPI与CPI“倒挂”的原因除投资膨胀外，有效需求不足，买方市场，粮食和住房价格上涨等。（3）针对当前通货膨胀特点，提出有别于要素价格管制和货币紧缩政策，可解决物价的长期深层矛盾。     

Optimal bounds on l-statistics based on samples drawn with replacement from finite populations

We describe a method of establishing optimal bounds on the expectations of arbitrary linear combinations of order statistics based on iid samples drawn with replacement from finite populations of a fixed size. The bounds are expressed in terms of the population size, mean, central absolute moments, and coefficients of the combination. The bounds are precisely determined for the trimmed means and their differences, and single order statistics and their differences in particular. We also show that with increase in population size, our bounds approach the respective universal ones for arbitrary iid samples.     

The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013

In this paper, we apply a novel econometric approach joint with an exhaustive revision of the main events in the history of US monetary policy in order to check the effectiveness of monetary policy focused on interest rates. Unlike the traditional cointegration approach, this new methodology allows us to break with the rigidity of traditional approaches in favour of letting the series be cointegrated, and the spread is able to follow a long-memory process; i.e., it does not necessarily need to be I(0) and also rejects the assumption that interest rates could follow the dichotomy I(0)/I(1). To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first applications of the Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive (FCVAR) model (Johansen and Nielsen (2012) and Nielsen and Popiel (2016)). Aiming to achieve this goal, we use two databases, i.e., the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and Shiller’s database. Our results cannot reject the Expectations Hypothesis of Term Structure in this time period, and more importantly, we also find that the long-term rate drives the long-run relationship, contributing to the total proportion to the common trend; the persistence of the spread shows us effective control power over interest rates by the Fed.