我国当前通货膨胀的深层次原因探究——从生产结构的角度分析

投入产出价格影响模型的分析结果表明,农业对我国当前通货膨胀影响最大,第二产业中高能耗、高资源依赖型行业对通货膨胀的潜在影响较大,但不同行业的影响呈现差异化特点,部分生产性服务业对通货膨胀也具有潜在影响。随着经济增长方式转变和生产结构优化,能源和资源品价格上涨短期内对通货膨胀会形成较大压力,但长期影响将逐步减弱,而生产性服务业产品价格的上升将成为未来影响我国通货膨胀的主要因素。     

国企产权改革抑制通货膨胀

我国近几年经济高速发展,同时也伴随着较高的通货膨胀。本文另辟奚径,从国企产权改革入手,通过改革融通社会资金,既能促进企业走入正轨,适应全球化激烈的竞争；又能遏制投机行为,稳定经济运行。     

Deterministic approximate inference techniques for conditionally Gaussian state space models

We describe a novel deterministic approximate inference technique for conditionally Gaussian state space models, i.e. state space models where the latent state consists of both multinomial and Gaussian distributed variables. The method can be interpreted as a smoothing pass and iteration scheme symmetric to an assumed density filter. It improves upon previously proposed smoothing passes by not making more approximations than implied by the projection onto the chosen parametric form, the assumed density. Experimental results show that the novel scheme outperforms these alternative deterministic smoothing passes. Comparisons with sampling methods suggest that the performance does not degrade with longer sequences.     

随机长短期利率和通货膨胀下的资产配置问题研究

通货膨胀可以被认为是一种背景风险,通常只对财富的增长率有影响,而不会改变投资财富的数量。现有的资产管理文献几乎大部分都没有考虑通货膨胀问题。但是当投资期限为中长期时,通货膨胀风险及规避问题是不容忽视的,直到近期人们才真正开始关注通货膨胀风险。为了求解方便,在利率期限结构选择中通常选择的单因子模型具有一个严重的缺陷,即不同到期期限的债券价格是完全相关的,这与事实不符。本文考虑了银行帐户、两种债券和股票这几种可以交易的资产,采用了HullWhite两因素利率期限结构模型,对以通货膨胀和长、短期利率为     

扬雄至京、待诏、奏赋、除郎的年代问题

扬雄长安初期的生平事迹 ,如至京、待诏、奏赋、除郎的年代问题 ,众说纷纭。本文论证扬雄写奏《甘泉》、《河东》二赋的时间应在汉成帝永始四年 ,并由此推断 :扬雄至京的年龄 ,今传《汉书》本传“赞”文说“四十余”确实错了 ,应是“三十余” ;先为王音门下史 ,后得王音和杨庄举荐 ,于永始二年或三年待诏 ;由于受到日蚀影响 ,永始元年即复的甘泉、河东郊祠 ,迟至永始四年方始实行。扬雄除为黄门侍郎 ,应在此年末奏《羽猎赋》和元延二年上《长杨赋》之间的元延元年。     

人民币汇率预期影响通货膨胀的渠道分析

汇率预期主要通过货币替代效应、资产价格效应和进口价格效应影响物价水平。协整分析及残差替代法回归的结果表明：2002年以来的人民币升值预期对我国通货膨胀有显著影响,其中汇率预期主要通过货币替代效应渠道来影响国内的通货膨胀,资产价格效应渠道和进口价格效应渠道次之,本文针对这一现象给出了一些政策建议。     

Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy

This paper analyzes the dynamics of inflation in the Turkish economy, which has experienced increasingly high levels of inflation over the last 30 years. By conducting a Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis, the variance decomposition (VDC) and the impulse response functions (IRF) show that the relatively high and inertial nature of inflation mainly stems from the increases in public sector prices and the depreciation of the Turkish lira. On the other hand, the Granger causality tests as well as the VDC and IRF demonstrate that high prices have not been as a result of an expansionary monetary policy. These results together with the previous results show that inertial inflation is not a monetary phenomenon in Turkey, but rather an outcome of a political misconduct, which therefore shows the fiscal dominance.     

Joint modeling of linear degradation and failure time data with masked causes of failure under simple step-stress test

In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between degradation and failure time for a simple step-stress test where the underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to induce failure experimentally and a tampered failure rate model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are obtained through the expectation–maximization algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real-world example is analysed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.     

扩张型货币政策能刺激就业吗？ ——刚性工资模型下的劳动力市场动态分析

 积极的经济政策在促进经济增长、保证就业中的作用是当前宏观经济政策讨论的重点,本文即讨论货币政策冲击对就业等宏观经济变量的动态效应。首先,基于宏观季度数据,运用结构向量自回归方法,得到就业、产出和通胀在货币供给冲击下的动态反应,给出经验事实：在一单位货币供给冲击下,就业呈驼峰形态,缓慢下降回归稳态,显示出很强的持续性,但在中远期失业会增加;通货膨胀呈驼峰形态,显示很强的惯性特征,但在中远期会出现通货紧缩;产出温和增长,呈驼峰形态,显示出很强的持续性。同时,为进一步从经济理论上解析货币供给冲击对就业、产出和通胀传导的机制,数值模拟一个刚性工资模型,将模拟的脉冲反应结果与实证经验事实相比较,发现理论模型能较好地拟合上述三个经验事实,并从理论上进行货币供给冲击的经济传导机制分析。最后,结合经验事实与模型经济探讨了扩张型货币政策冲击下就业、通胀和产出的反应模式,给出政策建议,即扩张型货币供给冲击短期内能够有效刺激就业,促进经济增长;但在远期形成失业和通货紧缩,因此需要其他配套政策,如财政政策、收入政策等相配合。     

国际石油价格与通货膨胀的周期波动关系

近年来国际石油价格大幅波动,不可避免地给各国经济带来冲击和影响。本文利用小波变换频带分析方法,结合VAR和多元GARCH-BEKK模型,考察了不同经济周期下中美两国通货膨胀与国际油价间的溢出关系。结果表明,国际油价只在短周期里对中国通货膨胀有显著的单向均值溢出效应,而二者之间不存在任何方向的波动溢出效应;美国通货膨胀与国际油价则在多数周期下具有显著的单向或双向均值波动溢出效应。本文认为尽管当前中国通货膨胀与国际油价的关系并不显著,但随着我国石油消费对进口依赖的不断提高,能源安全问题将成为未来中国需要应对挑战,因此相关部门应及早采取有效措施,加快完善国内石油市场化建设,增强能源意识,提高能源利用效率,以应对未来石油冲击对经济的影响。