Nonparametric causal effects based on marginal structural models

A parametric marginal structural model (PMSM) approach to Causal Inference has been favored since the introduction of MSMs by Robins [1998a. Marginal structural models. In: 1997 Proceedings of the American Statistical Association. American Statistical Association, Alexandria, VA, pp. 1–10]. We propose an alternative, nonparametric MSM (NPMSM) approach that extends the definition of causal parameters of interest and causal effects. This approach is appealing in practice as it does not require correct specification of a parametric model but instead relies on a working model which can be willingly misspecified. We propose a methodology for longitudinal data to generate and estimate so-called NPMSM parameters describing so-called nonparametric causal effects and provide insight on how to interpret these parameters causally in practice. Results are illustrated with a point treatment simulation study. The proposed NPMSM approach to Causal Inference is compared to the more typical PMSM approach and we contribute to the general understanding of PMSM estimation by addressing the issue of PMSM misspecification.     

一种快速全局运动估计算法

为了对全局运动进行准确快速的估计,在对全局运动估计算法进行研究的基础上,提出了一种快速全局运动估计算法。该算法基于非线性密度估计,采用了六参数的仿射模型。为了提高计算速度,采用了3层金字塔进行多分辨率计算,而且在每层迭代计算中,将基于块的外点去除算法与特征点提取算法相结合,这样既加快了算法的速度,又提高了计算结果的准确性。全局运动估计的实验结果表明,该算法在速度和准确性上具有一定的优势。     

农民工对中国经济的贡献测算

中国的农民工阶层是改革开放以后才出现的。根据公开的统计数据,近年来,农民工流动的规模每年已经超过1亿人。农民工占城市第二、第三产业劳动力的比重很多地方已经超过50%。可以说,农民工已经成为城市第二、第三产业劳动力大军的重要组成部分,农民工对中国国民经济的贡献功不可没。文章利用农业部农村固定观察点的数据,测算了农民工对全国第二、第三产业产值增长的贡献。研究结果表明,1995年至2005年,如果假设农民工劳动生产率与城市产业工人一样,则农民工对中国第二、第三产业产值贡献占到这些产业产值的14.77%~24.35%,平均每年为19.98%;如果假设农民工劳动生产率低于城市产业工人,则农民工对中国第二、第三产业产值贡献占到这些产业产值的1.67%~4.71%,平均每年为3.26%,而且贡献份额有逐年增长的趋势。     

A Note on Trend Decomposition: The 'Classical' Approach Revisited with an Application to Surface Temperature Trends

This note reconsiders the 'classical' approach to trend estimation and presents a modern treatment of this technique that enables trend filters which incorporate end-effects to be constructed easily and efficiently. The approach is illustrated by estimating recent Northern Hemispheric temperature trends. In so doing, it shows how classical trend models may be selected in empirical applications and indicates how this choice determines the properties of the latest trend estimates.     

国内删失数据统计研究状况综述

研究了国内在线性回归模型、非线性回归模型、半参数回归、非参数回归、单指标回归、生存分析、时间序列分析、密度估计等领域删失数据统计研究状况。     

IEEE 802.16无线信道快速突发均衡的实现

针对IEEE 802.16无线信道进行了仿真,提出了一种工作于该信道的16QAM突发模式的快速均衡器算法,该算法采用Neuman-Hoffman序列的扩展序列进行信道快速估计,及用均衡器系数预加载算法以提高收敛速度,仿真结果证明:算法收敛速度优于递归最小二乘算法。     

Use of the scale-up methods in injury prevention research: An empirical assessment to the case of choking in children

The scale-up method estimates the size of hard to count subpopulations. This method is based on the idea that the proportion of subjects in a subpopulation E known to each member of the general population T is the same as the proportion of members of E belonging to general population T.     

Chain ratio and regression type estimators for median estimation in survey sampling

In this paper, we consider chain ratio and regression type estimators for estimating median in survey sampling. We find expressions for the variance of the chain-ratio and chain-regression type estimators considered in the present investigation. The optimum values of the first phase and second phase sample sizes are also obtained for the fixed cost of survey. The relative efficiency of chain-ratio and chain-regression type estimators have been studied in comparison to ratio and regression type estimators of median proposed by Singh, Joarder and Tracy (2001).     

Clustering via nonparametric density estimation

Although Hartigan (1975) had already put forward the idea of connecting identification of subpopulations with regions with high density of the underlying probability distribution, the actual development of methods for cluster analysis has largely shifted towards other directions, for computational convenience. Current computational resources allow us to reconsider this formulation and to develop clustering techniques directly in order to identify local modes of the density. Given a set of observations, a nonparametric estimate of the underlying density function is constructed, and subsets of points with high density are formed through suitable manipulation of the associated Delaunay triangulation. The method is illustrated with some numerical examples.     

非参数可加ACD模型及其应用研究

非参数可加ACD模型对条件期望的函数形式与随机误差项的分布形式要求都没有参数ACD模型强，因此不会像参数ACD模型那样因模型形式设定错误而得出错误结论。非参数可加ACD模型估计出来的各个可加部分图形的形状对于正确设定参数ACD模型具有一定的指导作用。