区域和谐与地方政府区际行政行为创新研究

区际行政行为研究,针对的是地方政府行为中与其他地区有互动关系,对其他地区具有影响作用的一部分行为,地方政府区际行政行为的合作与否,直接关系区域之间的和谐共荣。当前,扭曲的区际行政行为设立起无形的行政壁垒,已经成为制约区域经济一体化的瓶颈,弹奏着区域发展的不和谐音符。分析地方政府博弈心理,认为地方政府区际行政行为创新是促进区域和谐发展的有效"解决之道"。     

Computational methods for complex stochastic systems: a review of some alternatives to MCMC

We consider analysis of complex stochastic models based upon partial information. MCMC and reversible jump MCMC are often the methods of choice for such problems, but in some situations they can be difficult to implement; and suffer from problems such as poor mixing, and the difficulty of diagnosing convergence. Here we review three alternatives to MCMC methods: importance sampling, the forward-backward algorithm, and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We discuss how to design good proposal densities for importance sampling, show some of the range of models for which the forward-backward algorithm can be applied, and show how resampling ideas from SMC can be used to improve the efficiency of the other two methods. We demonstrate these methods on a range of examples, including estimating the transition density of a diffusion and of a discrete-state continuous-time Markov chain; inferring structure in population genetics; and segmenting genetic divergence data.     

关于城镇人口就业的发展趋势与人口控制

本文阐述了人口就业在机制、渠道、就业压力等方面的发展趋势，并提出了顺应发展需要所必须选择的人口控制的若干措施和建议     

Who captures the marks for the Petersen estimator?

Summary.  We examine the claim that the well-known Petersen estimator which is used in population size estimation was not in fact used by the scientist after whom it is named. We show how, in the early years of the last century, the modern use of the Petersen estimator grew from that of the fishing coefficient. Contending with the somewhat conflicting claims that were made at the time, and what by modern standards is poor referencing of sources, we investigate where the credit lies for these concepts, and the principles and protocols which support them. We assess also how far attributions of credit were affected by practical considerations, and the history of the estimator by the nature of the problems being pursued. We identify scientists whose early work on marking and estimating fish populations deserves more credit than it has received.     

Non-parametric estimation of population size from capture–recapture data when the capture probability depends on a covariate

Summary.  In capture–recapture experiments the capture probabilities may depend on individual covariates such as an individual's weight or age. Typically this dependence is modelled through simple parametric functions of the covariates. Here we first demonstrate that misspecification of the model can produce biased estimates and subsequently develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the functional relationship between the probability of capture and a single covariate. This estimator is then incorporated in a Horvitz–Thompson estimator to estimate the size of the population. The resulting estimators are evaluated in a simulation study and applied to a data set on captures of the Mountain Pygmy Possum.     

A new mixture model for capture heterogeneity

Summary.  We propose a mixture of binomial and beta–binomial distributions for estimating the size of closed populations. The new mixture model is applied to several real capture–recapture data sets and is shown to provide a convenient, objective framework for model selection. The new model is compared with three alternative models in a simulation study, and the results shed light on the general performance of models in this area. The new model provides a robust flexible analysis, which automatically deals with small capture probabilities.     

近代日本消费需求变动的因素分析

长期影响近代日本消费需求变动的因素主要有四个方面:国民经济的不断增长和国民收入的不断提高是近代日本消费需求逐渐上升的物质基础和前提条件;近代工矿交通事业的发展,使国民收入分配格局朝着有利于劳动的方向转变,这是促进近代日本消费需求不断上升的积极力量;人口规模及其构成的变动是近代日本消费需求不断上升的重要推动力量;消费的示范效应、攀比行为和不可逆行为对消费需求不断上升起着一定的推动作用。     

20世纪30-40年代青浦西部的地租额与粮食亩产量

20世纪30-40年代青浦西部地祖额与祖佃田地的地权性质和自然条件相关联;佃户拥有租佃田地的“田面”地租额低,佃户不拥有租佃田地的“田面”地租额则高;租佃田地为“高田”地租额高,租佃田地为“低田”、“荡田”地租额则低。另外,20世纪30-40年代青浦西部的粮食亩产量以及复种指数也与田地的自然条件相关联:“高田”的粮食亩产量远高于“低田”、“荡田”的粮食亩产量。     

中国少数民族村寨人口流动特征及其影响因素分析

根据28个不同的少数民族村寨的人口流动数据资料,将其分为推力拉力不足类型、推力拉力共同作用类型、文化风俗影响类型、开发程度制约类型、开放程度推动类型、跨境收入拉动类型6种,对其人口流动的特征、规律和影响因素进行了归纳。     

人口与家庭发展:基于协调耦合关系的指数构建北大核心CSSCI

在人口形势发生重大转折性变化的时代背景下,人口与家庭的关系更为紧密也更为复杂,但现有研究对人口与家庭发展的概念、测量和基本态势还缺乏统一的认识。文章基于转变理论和人口与家庭两个系统的协调耦合关系,利用CRITIC权重法计算指标权重、拟合指数,从多维视角出发构建人口与家庭发展指数并实证分析近30年来中国人口与家庭发展的基本态势。分析结果显示:1990年以来受计划生育政策和经济快速发展的影响,我国的人口与家庭发展呈现总体平稳的态势。人口系统中生育、健康、迁移、结构等各要素均发生了不同程度的变化,人口发展指数在20世纪90年代后趋于下降,2000年以来略有回升。同一时期,尽管我国的家庭结构指标蕴含风险,但高等教育的普及使家庭人力资本水平大幅度提高,经济发展降低了城乡家庭的恩格尔系数,这些都有助于家庭发展,家庭发展指数不断升高。人口和家庭系统的协调度和耦合度保持稳定,人口与家庭发展更多受到人口发展的影响。我国当前人口与家庭发展的短板在人口发展,需要尽力解决好生育率低、人口结构失衡、地区发展不平衡等问题。人口与家庭系统耦合度长期保持较高水平的稳定将为中国实施促进家庭发展政策奠定较好的基础,有助于促进人口长期均衡发展。