Estimating a Convex Function in Nonparametric Regression

Abstract.  A new nonparametric estimate of a convex regression function is proposed and its stochastic properties are studied. The method starts with an unconstrained estimate of the derivative of the regression function, which is firstly isotonized and then integrated. We prove asymptotic normality of the new estimate and show that it is first order asymptotically equivalent to the initial unconstrained estimate if the regression function is in fact convex. If convexity is not present, the method estimates a convex function whose derivative has the same L ^p -norm as the derivative of the (non-convex) underlying regression function. The finite sample properties of the new estimate are investigated by means of a simulation study and it is compared with a least squares approach of convex estimation. The application of the new method is demonstrated in two data examples.     

Bayesian analysis for the two-parameter Pareto distribution based on record values and times

Doostparast and Balakrishnan (Pareto record-based analysis, Statistics, under review) recently developed optimal confidence intervals as well as uniformly most powerful tests for one- and two-sided hypotheses concerning shape and scale parameters, for the two-parameter Pareto distribution based on record data. In this paper, on the basis of record values and inter-record times from the two-parameter Pareto distribution, maximum-likelihood and Bayes estimators as well as credible regions are developed for the two parameters of the Pareto distribution. For illustrative purposes, a data set on annual wages of a sample of production-line workers in a large industrial firm is analysed using the proposed procedures.     

Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a Local Model Averaging

In statistical applications, logistic regression is a popular method for analyzing binary data accompanied by explanatory variables. But when one of the two outcomes is rare, the estimation of model parameters has been shown to be severely biased and hence estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on a logistic regression model would be inaccurate. In this article, we focus on estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on logistic regression models. Instead of selecting a best model, we propose a local model averaging procedure based on a data perturbation technique applied to different information criteria to obtain different probability estimates of rare events occurring. Then an approximately unbiased estimator of Kullback‐Leibler loss is used to choose the best one among them. We design complete simulations to show the effectiveness of our approach. For illustration, a necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) data set is analyzed.     

Bartlett-corrected tests for normal linear models when the error covariance matrix is nonscaiar

This paper provides Bartlett corrections to improve likelihood ratio tests for heteroskedastic normal linear models when the error covariance matrix is nonscaiar and depends on a set of unknown parameters. The Bartlett corrections are simple enough to be used algebraically to obtain several closed-form expressions in special cases. The corrections have also advantages for numerical purposes because they involve only simple operations on matrices and vectors.     

Choosing Between the Sample-Selection Model and the Multi-Part Model

Hay and Olsen (1984) incorrectly argue that a multi-part model, the two-part model used in Duan et al. (1982,1983), is nested within the sample-selection model. Their proof relies on an unmentioned restrictive assumption that cannot be satisfied. We provide a counterexample to show that the propensity to use medical care and the level of expense can be positively associated in the two-part model, contrary to their assertion. The conditional specification in the multi-part model is preferable to the unconditional specification in the selection model for modeling actual (v. potential) outcomes. The selection model also has poor statistical and numerical properties and relies on untestable assumptions. Empirically the multi-part estimators perform as well as or better than the sample selection estimator for the data set analyzed in Duan et al. (1982, 1983).     

Smoothing Spline Estimation for Partially Linear Single-index Models

In this article, the partially linear single-index models are discussed based on smoothing spline and average derivative estimation method. This proposed technique consists of two stages: one is to estimate the vector parameter in the linear part using the smoothing cubic spline method, simultaneously, obtaining the estimator of unknown single-index function; the other is to estimate the single-index coefficients in the single-index part by the using average derivative estimator procedure. Some simulated and real examples are presented to illustrate the performance of this method.     

Admissibility of generalized bayes and pitman estimates in the non-regular family

In this paper we have considered the problem of finding admissible estimates for a fairly general class of parametric functions in the so called “non-regular” type of densities Following Karlin s (1958) technique, we have established the ad-missibility of generalized Bayes estimates and Pitman estimates. Some examples are discussed.     

C293. A note on using a hypothesis-dependent variance estimate

Detecting the number of signals and estimating the parameters of the signals is an important problem in signal processing. Quite a number of papers appeared in the last twenty years regarding the estimation of the parameters of the sinusoidal components but not that much of attention has been given in estimating the number of terms present in a sinusoidal signal. Fuchs developed a criterion based on the perturbation analysis of the data auto correlation matrix to estimate the number of sinusoids, which is in some sense a subjective-based method. Recently Reddy and Biradar proposed two criteria based on AIC and MDL and developed an analytical framework for analyzing the performance of these criteria. In this paper we develop a method using the extended order modelling and singular value decomposition technique similar to that of Reddy and Biradar. We use penalty function technique but instead of using any fixed penalty function like AIC or MDL, a class of penalty functions satisfying some special properties has been used. We prove that any penalty function from that special class will give consistent estimate under the assumptions that the error random variables are independent and identically distributed with mean zero and finite variance. We also obtain the probabilities of wrong detection for any particular penalty function under somewhat weaker assumptions than that of Reddy and Biradar of Kaveh et al. It gives some idea to choose the proper penalty function for any particular model. Simulations are performed to verify the usefulness of the analysis and to compare our methods with the existing ones.     

A fourier integral density estimate: a Monte Carlo study

Davis (1977) proposed the use of a kernel density estimate which is the sample characteristic function integrated over (-A(n) , A(n)), where A(n) is chosen to minimize the mean integrated square error of the estimate. The scalar, A(n), is determined by the sample size and the population characteristic function. This paper investigates, in a Monte Carlo study, the mean integrated square error obtained under a procedure suggested by Davis (1977) for estimating A(n) when the population characteristic function is unknown.     

Empirical likelihood for generalized linear models with fixed and adaptive designs

Empirical likelihood inference for generalized linear models with fixed and adaptive designs is considered. It is shown that the empirical log-likelihood ratio at the true parameters converges to the standard chi-square distribution. Furthermore, we obtain the maximum empirical likelihood estimate of the unknown parameter and the resulting estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal. Some simulations are conducted to illustrate the proposed method.