美国军事介入中东石油战略利益之透析

冷战后,美国将中东石油视为其最根本的国家利益之一.经济战略利益则是这种国家利益的基础和体现.为了更有效获取和控制中东石油,美国往往通过战争来推进其石油霸权战略.20世纪九十年代以来,美国在大中东地区"牵头"发动四次战争,其实质都是"为石油而战"--以国家利益和"干涉主义"理论为幌子,以武力为后盾独霸中东石油,从而实现其经济战略利益.事实上,美国以军事手段推进的中东石油霸权战略是难以实现的.     

A qualitative study to examine how differences in motivation can inform the development of targeted physical activity interventions for African American women

Self-Determination Theory proposes that some people are motivated to initiate physical activity by externally-controlled reasons (e.g., physical appearance, approval from others), whereas others feel compelled by more autonomous sources of motivation (e.g., enjoyment, personal importance). This study used qualitative methods to examine whether individual differences in autonomous motivation offers a useful framework for developing targeted intervention programs for African American women. Focus groups (k = 6) were conducted to examine how different levels of autonomous motivation for physical activity related to differences in physical activity barriers and facilitators among African American women (N = 31). Sessions were audiotaped, transcribed, and coded by independent raters (r = 0.70). QSR NVivo 11 was used to analyze data, and themes were identified separately for women with low, medium, or high autonomous motivation. Those with high autonomous motivation focused on themes of wanting novelty, excitement, and competition, whereas those with low autonomous motivation focused on themes of wanting instrumental support and financial incentives for increasing engagement in physical activity. Implications for developing physical activity intervention programs for African American women that are targeted toward differences in autonomous motivation are discussed.     

A Multivariate Intervention Model for the Dutch Mint Circulation: Estimation and Monte Carlo Simulation

For each of the five Dutch coinage denominations, a transfer-function model is estimated. The output variables are monthly observations of coins in circulation. Two input variables represent transaction flows; all other inputs are step functions, representing the occurrence of interventions. Using the method of cross-correlating the residuals of the individual equations, a multivariate transfer-function model is constructed and estimated. Next Monte Carlo simulation is applied to derive expectations and variances of the yearly addition to the stock of coins until 1996. Our results enlighten on some aspects of a problem situation faced by the Dutch State Mint.     

Effects of a single outlier on arma identification

Fox (1972), Box and Tiao (1975), and Abraham and Box (1979) have proposed methods for detecting outliers in time series whose ARMA form is known (or identified). We show that the existence of a single aberrant observation, innovation, or intervention causes an ARMA model to be misidentified using unadjusted autocorrelation (acf) and partial autocorrelation estimates. The magnitude, location, type of outlier, and in some cases the ARMA's parameters, affect the identification outcome. We use variance inflation, signal-to-noise ratios, and acf critical values to determine an ARMA model's susceptibility to misidentifi-cation. Numerical and simulation examples suggest how to iteratively use the outlier detection methods in practice.     

The impact of a participatory organizational intervention on job stress in community health care institutions

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of a short-term participatory intervention in health care institutions in Norway on workers' control, other job characteristics, job stress, subjective health and job satisfaction. Participants (including managers and supervisors) were randomly allocated to intervention groups and to a control group. Actions to solve problems based on the employees' own perceptions of the main problems were seen as the key motivators for organizational improvement and increased control at the task and office level in the work situation. The main stressors identified by the participants in this study were lack of information, communication and respect between professions, as well as the need for professional and personal development. The participatory intervention had a positive, but limited effect on work-related stress, job characteristics, learning climate and management style, and seemed to have started a beneficial change process. There were no negative short-term effects on work-related stress and job demands. Organizational interventions may be a potential training ground for acquiring participatory skills and resources, and if sustained after the intervention period, they can have long-term effects on problem solving, job stress and employee satisfaction.     

Design and development of a film-based intervention about teenage men and unintended pregnancy: Applying the Medical Research Council framework in practice

Following the UK Medical Research Council's (MRC) guidelines for the development and evaluation of complex interventions, this study aimed to design, develop and optimise an educational intervention about young men and unintended teenage pregnancy based around an interactive film. The process involved identification of the relevant evidence base, development of a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon of unintended teenage pregnancy in relation to young men, and exploratory mixed methods research. The result was an evidence-based, theory-informed, user-endorsed intervention designed to meet the much neglected pregnancy education needs of teenage men and intended to increase both boys’ and girls’ intentions to avoid an unplanned pregnancy during adolescence. In prioritising the development phase, this paper addresses a gap in the literature on the processes of research-informed intervention design. It illustrates the application of the MRC guidelines in practice while offering a critique and additional guidance to programme developers on the MRC prescribed processes of developing interventions. Key lessons learned were: (1) know and engage the target population and engage gatekeepers in addressing contextual complexities; (2) know the targeted behaviours and model a process of change; and (3) look beyond development to evaluation and implementation.     

Supporting mothers: Issues in a Community Mothers Programme

This article describes a community support programme which implicitly challenges the assumption that the existence of a partner and local kin obviates the need to support women when they come home from hospital with a new baby. Implicit in the programme is the idea that support by mothers, of mothers, validates the activity of child care and is one way of facilitating the child's development. This programme was successful in terms of its perceived impact on both the providers and the recipients' ability to parent, in terms of providing training and support for providers, and in terms of strengthening links within the community and between the providers and the statutory and voluntary sectors. However, since the very model of care was a 'paid volunteering' one which perpetuated women's economic dependency it is a moot point whether it also perpetuated the devaluing of women's work. The subsequent mainstreaming of the programme and its inclusion of teenage lone mothers, who are likely to be co-parenting with their own mothers, raises still further questions about the complex and ambiguous nature of support for women. En este artículo se describe un programa de apoyo comunitario que, de manera implícita, pone en tela de juicio la creencia de que al tener una pareja o algun familiar muy cercano, las mujeres ya no necesitan ayuda cuando vuelven a casa después de tener un bebé. Implícita en el programa se encuentra la idea de que, el apoyo por parte de las madres de las madres da valor a la actividad del cuidado de niños y es a la vez una manera de facilitar el desarrollo de la niñez. Este programa tuvo mucho éxito en cuanto al impacto percibido tanto por aquellas que proporcionaban y recibían el apoyo de madres, en cuanto proporcionaban entrenamiento y apoyo para las proveedores debido al fortalecimiento de lazos con la comunidad, y entre las proveedoras y los sectores voluntarios y estatales. Sin embargo ya que este programa era un voluntariado pagado, el cual perpetúa la dependencia económica de la mujer, cabe preguntarse si también perpetúa la devalorización del trabajo de la mujer. La subsecuente parte principal del programa y la incorporación de madres adolescentes solas, quienes obtienen la ayuda de sus propias madres en el cuidado del bebé, provoca aun más interrogantes con respecto a la compleja y ambigua naturaleza de la ayuda a mujeres.     

我国自闭症康复机构干预方法及其影响因素研究

干预方法选择及应用状况影响自闭症康复机构的康复教育效果。本研究采用问卷调查法,调查36家康复机构实施的干预方法及干预过程中的辅助教具应用状况。结果发现:康复机构选择率最高的干预方法是感觉统合疗法,其次是已循证的干预方法,包括回合式教学、自然情境干预和视觉辅助等;康复机构不同干预课程的辅助教具应用相对统一,教师教学能力和经费需求影响康复机构选择干预方法的多样性。     

“Why Don’t You Just Tell Me How You Feel?”: A Case Study of a Young Mother in an Attachment-Based Group Intervention

This paper describes an attachment-based parenting intervention, the Circle of Security, and presents a case study of one participant’s experience as a member of it. The Circle of Security is a group intervention for parents of young children ages 1–5 that teaches parents to recognize and respond to their children’s alternating needs for attachment and exploration. The intervention content in group sessions relies to a great extent on discussions of videotaped vignettes of each parent–child dyad. Ultimately, the intervention focuses on strengthening parents’ capacities for empathic responsiveness to their children’s needs for them. In the second part of the paper, the case study illustrates one mother’s experience in a Circle of Security group designed for parents involved with the child welfare system as a result of substantiated maltreatment. Observations of this parent indicate that her capacity for empathic understanding was greatly strengthened, which appears to be related to important behavior change.