Estimation from Zero-Failure Data

When performing quantitative (or probabilistic) risk assessments, it is often the case that data for many of the potential events in question are sparse or nonexistent. Some of these events may be well-represented by the binomial probability distribution. In this paper, a model for predicting the binomial failure probability, P , from data that include no failures is examined. A review of the literature indicates that the use of this model is currently limited to risk analysis of energetic initiation in the explosives testing field. The basis for the model is discussed, and the behavior of the model relative to other models developed for the same purpose is investigated. It is found that the qualitative behavior of the model is very similar to that of the other models, and for larger values of n (the number of trials), the predicted P values varied by a factor of about eight among the five models examined. Analysis revealed that the estimator is nearly identical to the median of a Bayesian posterior distribution, derived using a uniform prior. An explanation of the application of the estimator in explosives testing is provided, and comments are offered regarding the use of the estimator versus other possible techniques.     

Penalty guided genetic search for redundancy optimization in multi-state series-parallel power system

This paper presents a genetic algorithm (GA) for parallel redundancy optimization in series-parallel power systems exhibiting multi-state behavior, optimizing the reliability subject to constraints. The components are binary and chosen from a list of products available in the market, and are being characterized by their feeding capacity, reliability, cost and weight. System reliability is defined as the ability to satisfy consumer demand and is presented as a piecewise cumulative load curve. In GA, to handle infeasible solutions penalty strategies are used. Penalty technique keep a certain amount of infeasible solutions in each generation so as to enforce genetic search towards an optimal solution from sides of, both, feasible and infeasible regions. We here present a dynamic adaptive penalty function which helps the algorithm to search efficiently for optimal/near optimal solution. To evaluate system reliability, a fast procedure, based on universal generating function, is used. An example considering a multi-state series-parallel power system is solved considering both homogeneous and heterogeneous types of redundancy. Also an example considering price discounts is solved. The effectiveness of the penalty function and the proposed algorithm is studied and shown graphically.     

One-dimensional optimal bounded-shape partitions for Schur convex sum objective functions

Consider the problem of partitioning n nonnegative numbers into p parts, where part i can be assigned n_i numbers with n_i lying in a given range. The goal is to maximize a Schur convex function F whose ith argument is the sum of numbers assigned to part i. The shape of a partition is the vector consisting of the sizes of its parts, further, a shape (without referring to a particular partition) is a vector of nonnegative integers (n₁,..., n_p) which sum to n. A partition is called size-consecutive if there is a ranking of the parts which is consistent with their sizes, and all elements in a higher-ranked part exceed all elements in the lower-ranked part. We demonstrate that one can restrict attention to size-consecutive partitions with shapes that are nonmajorized, we study these shapes, bound their numbers and develop algorithms to enumerate them. Our study extends the analysis of a previous paper by Hwang and Rothblum which discussed the above problem assuming the existence of a majorizing shape. This research is partially supported by ROC National Science grant NSC 92-2115-M-009-014.     

测试实数编码遗传算法的困难度

分析了遗传算法困难度测试在遗传算法研究中的重要意义. 鉴于当前这方面的研究集 中于二进制编码遗传算法,对实数编码遗传算法的困难度测试进行了分析. 探讨了实数编码遗 传算法困难度分析的适应值与距离相关系数测试法与基于随机游走模型的相关函数测试法, 提出了最佳一阶函数逼近测试法,做了大量实验,并根据实证分析结果对三种方法进行了比较 与评价.     

生产函数与成本函数的关系研究

本文给出了生产函数与成本函数之间的一般关系,并证明齐次生产函数与齐次成本函数之间存在着一种齐次对应关系:齐次生产函数在厂商的成本最小化决策下必然产生齐次的成本函数且齐次成本函数必然产生对应于齐次的生产函数。     

中国股市收益率分布特征研究

应用修正Weibull分布对上海综合指数收益率和深圳成分指数收益率的分布状况进行研究。结果表明:经过简单的移位变换后,上证综指收益率和深成指收益率可完全用修正Weibull分布来刻画;大收益率服从次指数分布,小收益率服从超指数分布;两股指收益率的概率分布存在一些差异,上证综指的波动性大于深成指的波动性;沪深股市收益率的分布在1996年以后发生了较大的变化,其中沪市变化更大。     

异种自由刑数罪并罚规则研究

异种自由刑数罪并罚是在原有数罪并罚规则基础之上,针对多样化的犯罪现象与司法适用而设置的规则。根据我国现行《刑法》规定的异种自由刑并罚内容,吸收原则与并科原则各自蕴含着合理性依据。然而立足于整体数罪并罚的规则,此种规定却存在二者相互矛盾以及刑罚轻重的冲突,给理论研究与实践适用带来困扰。基于此,通过对域外异种自由刑数罪并罚规则的考察,借鉴其中折抵和限制加重原则的内容,提出我国异种自由刑并罚规则的改进建议:对有期徒刑和拘役刑的并罚采用综合折抵原则与限制加重原则的方式,而对有期徒刑、拘役刑和管制刑的并罚继续采用并科原则,从而更好地实现数罪并罚的适用。     

高校青年志愿服务的发展路径探析——基于AGIL系统模型

高校青年志愿服务是社会志愿服务中重要的组成部分。高校青年志愿服务事业由四个子系统承担着相应的功能:资源系统发挥适应功能;高校志愿服务组织发挥目标达成功能;共青团发挥整合功能;育人系统发挥模式维持功能。在目前的高校志愿服务工作中,各项功能存在发挥不到位的问题。以AGIL理论分析模型为框架,可以从四个方面促进高校青年志愿服务提供路径支撑:资源系统做好社会化发展、高校志愿服务组织做好项目化管理、共青团做好枢纽化整合、育人系统做好价值化引领,从而发挥有机整体的作用。     

身份与功能交互下的民间信仰景观——以青海西宁湟中县扎麻隆凤凰山为例

改革开放以后,特别是21世纪以来,“文化带动旅游,旅游搞活经济”的模式在全国已经成为常见的经济形态。在这样的大背景下,许多新建的、基于神话和民间信仰打造的旅游景观,与当地居民及海内外香客对民间信仰宗教化的理解,以及国家的宗教政策形成了一种微妙的平衡。作为一处旅游景观,扎麻隆凤凰山的九天圣都筹建于20世纪末,现已成为区域内闻名的民间信仰道场。扎麻隆凤凰山身份与功能的交互与矛盾,以及扎麻隆村权力格局对其影响无疑是值得关注和研究的现象。     

基于知识图谱的员工创新行为研究分析

以中国知网数据库2007—2017年收录的题名中含有“员工创新行为”的293篇期刊论文作为数据来源,借助CiteSpace5.0软件绘制可视化知识图谱,对该时间段国内员工创新行为研究的年度发文量、发文机构、文献来源机构、代表性学者及研究热点进行可视化分析。研究结果表明：2007—2010年,员工创新行为研究的载文量较少但呈逐步增长趋势,2010—2017年,员工创新行为发文量增长趋势明显;发文量排名前20的研究机构中有19个为高校;载文量在5篇以上的期刊主要为经济管理类期刊;其研究热点主要集中在员工创新行为主体研究,以及个人特征、领导力、组织文化与氛围等员工创新行为前因变量研究。未来的研究方向为：开发适合中国情境的员工创新行为量表,在整体视角下探讨不同创新主体之间的关联及员工创新行为的结果变量等。