论纳尔苏行动对曹家的作用及影响

雍正十年十一月至雍正十一年四月 ,早被革爵圈禁的纳尔苏 ,派嫡幼子福静向隋赫德索银三千八百两。事前有“曹家人”到平郡王府“行走” ,事后有雍正帝及宝亲王弘历为之开脱。曹家得银后可摆脱困境 ,捐纳州同。因此 ,对曹兆页家的穷困问题 ,有必要作通盘的思考 ;对“曹雪芹从乾隆九年开始创作《石头记》”的定论 ,大可怀疑。应大破“自传说” ,大立“他传说”。     

Measurement error, skewness, and risk analysis: coping with the long tail of the distribution.

Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability estimates based on the analysis of multistage chance trees are more likely than not to be below the true probability of adverse events, but will sometimes substantially overestimate them. In contexts such as insurance markets for environmental risks, skewed distributions of risk estimates amplify the "winner's curse" so that the estimated risk premium for low-probability events is likely to be lower than the normative value. Skewness may result even in unbiased estimators of expected value from simple lotteries, if measurement error is associated with both the probability and pay-off terms. Further, skewness may occur even if the error associated with these two estimates is symmetrically distributed. Under certain circumstances, skewed estimates of expected value may result in risk-neutral decisionmakers exhibiting a tendency to choose a certainty equivalent over a lottery of equal expected value, or vice versa. We show that when distributions of estimates of expected value are, positively skewed, under certain circumstances it will be optimal to choose lotteries with nominal values lower than the value of apparently superior certainty equivalents. Extending the previous work of Goodman (1960), we provide an exact formula for the skewness of products.     

Parametric Modeling for Survival with Competing Risks and Masked Failure Causes

We consider a life testing situation in which systems are subject to failure from independent competing risks. Following a failure, immediate (stage-1) procedures are used in an attempt to reach a definitive diagnosis. If these procedures fail to result in a diagnosis, this phenomenon is called masking. Stage-2 procedures, such as failure analysis or autopsy, provide definitive diagnosis for a sample of the masked cases. We show how stage-1 and stage-2 information can be combined to provide statistical inference about (a) survival functions of the individual risks, (b) the proportions of failures associated with individual risks and (c) probability, for a specified masked case, that each of the masked competing risks is responsible for the failure. Our development is based on parametric distributional assumptions and the special case for which the failure times for the competing risks have a Weibull distribution is discussed in detail.     

试论宋代馆阁藏书的基本职能

宋代实行"右文"政策,极为重视政府藏书建设,著名的崇文院、秘书省就是政府藏书楼。三馆、秘阁及秘书省总称崇文院或馆阁,馆阁藏书在借阅流通、图书编修、提供咨询三个方面发挥了其基本职能。     

论会盟在春秋争霸中的特殊功能

春秋争霸过程中,会盟以其特殊的功能发挥着极其重要的作用,这些功能至少可以归纳为三个方面,即:可以建立比较稳定的军事联盟关系,有效的开展争霸战争;可以确立公认的霸主地位,把军事胜利转化为政治成果;可以实现暂时的"弭兵",在和平状态下共同瓜分小国利益。会盟所以具有这些特殊功能,是与春秋时期的时代特征分不开的,也是春秋争霸的性质所决定的。     

论《经义述闻》的语法观

<经义述闻>因其恢宏博大,不仅完全涵容<经传释词>所表现出的语言学思想--诸如"声近义通"的原则、"因声求义"的方法、"依文作解"的语境观点,而且几乎随处可见到至今仍有重要价值的语言观.王引之天才的语言审析能力和敏锐的语言感受能力,贯穿整部<经义述闻>,从而形成王引之的语言学思想.而王引之的语法观,既反映在<经传释词>对虚词的考释上,又反映在<经义述闻>对句法的推敲上,而通过对<经传释词>和<经义述闻>的比较研究,更便于深入理解王引之语法学思想形成的过程.     

浅析诗歌不可译因素对读者审美反应的影响

审美功能是诗歌的主要功能之一,而诗歌形式对诗歌的审美具有很大的影响。由于诗歌对源语语言符号本身的高度依赖性,作为语际转换工具的翻译在追求内容对应时往往以牺牲某些形式为代价,从而导致以这些形式为载体的审美成分作为不可译因素而丧失。如今,"以读者为中心"的观念在翻译理论构建中的重要作用日益突显出来,因而审视这些不可译因素所造成的读者审美偏差是很有价值的。     

生产要素按贡献分配原则的创新与市场化运用

中共十六大报告首次提出确立劳动、资本、技术和管理等生产素按贡献参与分配的原则,其重大的创新意义在于表述更科学,导向更加明确。按贡献分配原则运用的关键在于,劳动、资本、技术和管理要素贡献大小的度量,应采取市场化的办法解决。按贡献分配必须与按劳分配为主、多种分配方式并存的基本分配制度结合,在结合中要特别强调公有制企业充分考虑非劳动要素贡献分配,非公有制企业充分考虑劳动贡献要素分配。     

思想政治教育的经济稳定功能研究

稳定在改革开放和现代化建设中被摆在压倒一切的位置上,经济稳定是整个社会稳定的基础和前提,思想政治教育和经济稳定有着十分密切的关系。文章从保证经济发展的性质和方向,导向思想和行为,凝聚人们的力量,激励群众的积极性、主动性、创造性,调节人们的心理、情绪、关系和利益以及转化人们的认识和行为等方面对思想政治教育的经济稳定功能进行了探讨。     

国内学者关于政治文化研究的综述

"政治文化"是现代西方政治学研究中的一个重要概念。20世纪80年代中期,政治文化研究在我国兴起,研究成果灿然可睹。在政治文化研究的历程中,对于政治文化的概念界定、政治文化的功用以及传统政治文化的特征和现代化等各个层面的研究,都呈现出百家争鸣的局面。