伦理学视域下高校官方微博的功能定位分析

随着高校官方微博的渐渐兴起,如何善管、善用高校官方微博成为教育管理领域研讨的话题之一。作为一种文化形态,高校官方微博具有鲜明的伦理学特性。基于伦理主体之权威性、确定性,对伦理关系之互动性、立体化以及伦理群体之社会角色定位进行分析,有利于于探讨高校官方微博在发展、建设过程中的功能定位。     

Minimax prediction in finite populations

In this paper, minimax predictors are considered for some population quantities of interest, under some specific superpopulation models. Minimax predictors are derived under a binomial superpopulation model. The well known ratio estimator is shown to be minimax under the usual simple regression normal model. Nonparametric minimax predictors are considered under some models. Some of the predictors considered also shown to be admis s ible.     

Characterizations of geometric distribution through progressively Type-II right-censored order statistics

In this paper, we consider characterizations of geometric distribution based on some properties of progressively Type-II right-censored order statistics. Specifically, we establish characterizations through conditional expectation, identical distribution, and independence of functions of progressively Type-II right-censored order statistics. Moreover, extensions of these results to generalized order statistics are also sketched. These generalize the corresponding results known for the case of ordinary order statistics.     

Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts

This article introduces and discusses a new measure of the relative economic affluence (REA) between income distributions with different means. The REA measure D is applied to the U.S. white and black household income distributions of 1967 and 1979. The measure D shows that the REA of the white households with respect to the black households decreased from 1967 to 1979. This conclusion contrasts with those obtained by applications of distance or quasi-distance functions. It is shown in this study that REA measures and distance functions address different and relevant issues. An REA measure deals with the relation “more affluent than” and defines a partial strict ordering over the set of pairs of income distributions—that is, the relation is asymmetric and transitive—whereas a distance function accounts for the dissimilarity between distributions without imposing an ordering relation and hence fulfills the symmetry property.     

Standard and goodness-of-fit parameter estimation methods for the three-parameter lognormal distribution

A class of goodness-of-fit estimators is found to provide a useful alternative in certain situations to the standard maximum likelihood method which has some undesirable estimation characteristics for estimation from the three-parameter lognormal distribution. The class of goodness-of-fit tests considered include the Shapiro-Wilk and Filliben tests which reduce to a weighted linear combination of the order statistics that can be maximized in estimation problems. The weighted order statistic estimators are compared to the standard procedures in Monte Carlo simulations. Robustness of the procedures are examined and example data sets analyzed.     

Confidence curves and improved exact confidence intervals for discrete distributions

The author describes a method for improving standard “exact” confidence intervals in discrete distributions with respect to size while retaining correct level. The binomial, negative binomial, hypergeometric, and Poisson distributions are considered explicitly. Contrary to other existing methods, the author's solution possesses a natural nesting condition: if α < α', the 1 ‐ α' confidence interval is included in the 1 ‐ α interval. Nonparametric confidence intervals for a quantile are also considered.     

Differentiating Processes of Control and Understanding in the Early Development of Emotion and Cognition

In this study, we examined the hypothesis that preschoolers' performance on emotion and cognitive tasks is organized into discrete processes of control and understanding within the domains of emotion and cognition. Additionally, we examined the relations among component processes using mother report, behavioral observation, and physiological measures of emotion control. Participants were 263 children (42 percent non‐White) and their mothers. Results indicated that the three approaches of measuring emotion control were unrelated. Regardless of the measurement method, a four‐factor solution differentiating emotion control and understanding and cognitive control and understanding fits the data better than did either of two two‐factor models, one based on domains of emotion and cognition across processes, and one based on processes of control and understanding across domains. Results of this research replicate those of Leerkes et al. in describing a differentiated underlying structure of emotion and cognition processes in early childhood while also extending these conclusions across samples and across measurement approaches for assessing emotion control.     

“按说”的话语标记性及语篇功能

按说是一个话语标记,它通常关联三个语篇单位:A.陈述某个事实依据;B.依照常理推导出一个结论命题;C.陈述与此命题相反的另一事实。按说具有表示推测的传信功能,可靠性等级居中。在语篇中,有衔接AB和BC的功能,常常能起到承上启下的作用。     

Criticism of the predictive distribution

The predictive distribution is a mixture of the original distribution model and is used for predicting a future observation. Therein, the mixing distribution is the posterior distribution of the distribution parameters in the Bayesian inference. The mixture can also be computed for the frequentist inference because the Bayesian posterior distribution has the same meaning as a frequentist confidence interval. I present arguments against the concept of predictive distribution. Examples illustrate these. The most important argument is that the predictive distribution can depend on the parameterization. An improvement of the theory of the predictive distribution is recommended.     

Hazards regression for freemium products and services: a competing risks approach

We propose a competing risks approach to analyse customer behaviours in freemium products and services. The event of interest is when a customer starts to pay for additional features or functionalities. The observation of such an event may be preempted by an event where the customer quits using the product before paying and consuming the additional features or functionalities. One such freemium service is the online game category. The Fine-Gray regression model was implemented for an online game player activity data to study how covariates affect the paying hazard. Some covariates are hypothesized to have different discrete effects at multiple change points. We extend the model to allow for possible change points in the analysis.