Regression Analysis of Restricted Mean Survival Time Based on Pseudo-Observations

Regression models for survival data are often specified from the hazard function while classical regression analysis of quantitative outcomes focuses on the mean value (possibly after suitable transformations). Methods for regression analysis of mean survival time and the related quantity, the restricted mean survival time, are reviewed and compared to a method based on pseudo-observations. Both Monte Carlo simulations and two real data sets are studied. It is concluded that while existing methods may be superior for analysis of the mean, pseudo-observations seem well suited when the restricted mean is studied.     

价值在宏观上的分配

价值向生产价格的转型是按宏观上的一个分配规律———平均化规律进行的。生产任何商品所创造的价值均要交给社会 ,由社会按平均法则在各部门间分配 ,分配后各商品得到的价值才能形成其价格。由于平均分配的过程是个动态的过程 ,故而传统的静态分析法在此失效。     

劳动和劳动价值理论的探析与创新

劳动价值理论研究是现实赋予的重要课题。为了从理论上深化对社会主义劳动和劳动价值论的研究和认识 ,我们必须把创造价值的劳动与社会必要劳动区别开 ,把社会财富生产与价值财富生产区别开 ,把价值源泉同生产要素重要区别开 ,把价值创造同收入分配区别开 ,把决定价值的依据同生产要素分配依据区别开。只有这样 ,才能为推动和充实劳动价值理论提供研究框架 ,寻找劳动价值理论研究的切入点和理论发展的方向     

Semiparametric Inference Methods for General Time Scale Models

In this paper we consider semiparametric inference methods for the time scale parameters in general time scale models (Oakes, 1995, Duchesne and Lawless, 2000). We use the results of Robins and Tsiatis (1992) and Lin and Ying (1995) to derive a rank-based estimator that is more efficient and robust than the traditional minimum coefficient of variation (min CV) estimator of Kordonsky and Gerstbakh (1993) for many underlying models. Moreover, our estimator can readily handle censored samples, which is not the case with the min CV method.     

心性本不二--从《郭店竹简·性自命出》篇论儒家"性"论之特征

在儒家正统哲学中,"性"作为人得以成立之依据,乃是天赋的.这也可以表述为"性善论".<郭店楚简·性自命出>篇的贡献在于,它论证了人性(天性)之实践环节在"心"上,由此形成"心性不二"的天-人关系框架.突出"心"之本体地位,"人道"内在同一于"天道",对"天道"的追求也实践地落实为人道追求;但另一方面,人道实践乃是天道实现的环节,又深刻地区别于"人类中心"的泥淖,从而有助于建立天-人,人-物的合宜关系.     

论科学的网络教育发展观

随着知识经济显露端倪 ,网络 (指因特网 )教育现出“桌面”。发展网络教育要坚持“以人的可持续发展为本”的网络教育对象观 ;优化“超链式”学习的网络教育学习观 ;树立以质量求生存的网络教育质量观 ;充分发挥满足多方需求的网络教育功能观 ,进而形成科学的网络教育发展观。     

论纳尔苏行动对曹家的作用及影响

雍正十年十一月至雍正十一年四月 ,早被革爵圈禁的纳尔苏 ,派嫡幼子福静向隋赫德索银三千八百两。事前有“曹家人”到平郡王府“行走” ,事后有雍正帝及宝亲王弘历为之开脱。曹家得银后可摆脱困境 ,捐纳州同。因此 ,对曹兆页家的穷困问题 ,有必要作通盘的思考 ;对“曹雪芹从乾隆九年开始创作《石头记》”的定论 ,大可怀疑。应大破“自传说” ,大立“他传说”。     

Measurement error, skewness, and risk analysis: coping with the long tail of the distribution.

Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability estimates based on the analysis of multistage chance trees are more likely than not to be below the true probability of adverse events, but will sometimes substantially overestimate them. In contexts such as insurance markets for environmental risks, skewed distributions of risk estimates amplify the "winner's curse" so that the estimated risk premium for low-probability events is likely to be lower than the normative value. Skewness may result even in unbiased estimators of expected value from simple lotteries, if measurement error is associated with both the probability and pay-off terms. Further, skewness may occur even if the error associated with these two estimates is symmetrically distributed. Under certain circumstances, skewed estimates of expected value may result in risk-neutral decisionmakers exhibiting a tendency to choose a certainty equivalent over a lottery of equal expected value, or vice versa. We show that when distributions of estimates of expected value are, positively skewed, under certain circumstances it will be optimal to choose lotteries with nominal values lower than the value of apparently superior certainty equivalents. Extending the previous work of Goodman (1960), we provide an exact formula for the skewness of products.     

Parametric Modeling for Survival with Competing Risks and Masked Failure Causes

We consider a life testing situation in which systems are subject to failure from independent competing risks. Following a failure, immediate (stage-1) procedures are used in an attempt to reach a definitive diagnosis. If these procedures fail to result in a diagnosis, this phenomenon is called masking. Stage-2 procedures, such as failure analysis or autopsy, provide definitive diagnosis for a sample of the masked cases. We show how stage-1 and stage-2 information can be combined to provide statistical inference about (a) survival functions of the individual risks, (b) the proportions of failures associated with individual risks and (c) probability, for a specified masked case, that each of the masked competing risks is responsible for the failure. Our development is based on parametric distributional assumptions and the special case for which the failure times for the competing risks have a Weibull distribution is discussed in detail.     

试论宋代馆阁藏书的基本职能

宋代实行"右文"政策,极为重视政府藏书建设,著名的崇文院、秘书省就是政府藏书楼。三馆、秘阁及秘书省总称崇文院或馆阁,馆阁藏书在借阅流通、图书编修、提供咨询三个方面发挥了其基本职能。