论诚实信用原则——以安全为价值取向的新分析

诚实信用原则是民法和合同法的基本原则。它要求民事主体诚信行使权利和履行义务,在民事活动中友好待人,从而维持当事人之间的利益以及当事人利益和社会利益之间的平衡。中国新的合同法已经把诚实信用原则作为基本的原则并规定了一系列适用规则。这表明我国的合同法已经向现代法律理念靠拢。本文讨论了诚实信用原则的概念和特征,相信这个原则可以根本改善现行司法,并扩大法官权利使他们更独立和自由地行为。“诚信和正义”是这一原则的升华和最高理想,它应该被运用到民事司法实践中。“安全”是诚实信用的一个重要价值,本文拟以安全为价值对诚实信用原则进行新的分析。     

Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

中国货币政策和财政政策相对有效性的实证研究

在我国由计划经济向市场经济的体制转轨过程中,货币政策和财政政策已成为我国宏观经济调节的主要手段,在我国的经济发展中发挥了重要作用。但货币政策和财政政策是各自独立的政策体系,由于作用的方式和条件有较大区别,其效果也有较大不同,文章试图应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对改革开放以来我国货币政策和财政政策的效果进行实证比较研究,并得出有关结论,为我国的宏观调控政策提供理论分析和实证检验的依据。     

Marginal and association regression models for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs: A likelihood‐based approach

Longitudinal data often contain missing observations, and it is in general difficult to justify particular missing data mechanisms, whether random or not, that may be hard to distinguish. The authors describe a likelihood‐based approach to estimating both the mean response and association parameters for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs. They specify marginal and dependence structures as regression models which link the responses to the covariates. They illustrate their approach using a data set from the Waterloo Smoking Prevention Project They also report the results of simulation studies carried out to assess the performance of their technique under various circumstances.     

奴役还是监禁：监狱矫正功能质疑——兼论刑罚的执行

随着刑罚观的改变,作为刑罚执行重要场域的监狱,其功能也在逐步转变,矫正成为现代监狱的核心功能。然而,矫正功能具有正反两方面的内容,必须加以区分。体制化后的监狱并不能真正有效的发挥矫正功能。文章从美国电影《肖申克的救赎》所反映的问题出发,分析了矫正功能的发挥必须具备的前提条件,以及应当注意的问题。同时,对我国监狱改革进行了反思。     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

Silphids in urban forests: Diversity and function

Many ecologists have examined the process of how urbanization reduces biological diversity but rarely have its ecological consequences been assessed. We studied forest-dwelling burying beetles (Coleoptera: Silphidae)—a guild of insects that requires carrion to complete their life cycles—along an urban-rural gradient of land use in Maryland. Our objective was to determine how forest fragmentation associated with urbanization affects (1) beetle community diversity and structure and (2) the ecological function provided by these insects, that is, decomposition of vertebrate carcasses. Forest fragmentation strongly reduced burying beetle diversity and abundance, and did so far more pervasively than urbanization of the surrounding landscape. The likelihood that beetles interred experimental baits was a direct, positive function of burying beetle diversity. We conclude that loss of burying beetle diversity resulting from forest fragmentation could have important ecological consequences in urban forests.     

Real nonparametric regression using complex wavelets

Summary.  Wavelet shrinkage is an effective nonparametric regression technique, especially when the underlying curve has irregular features such as spikes or discontinuities. The basic idea is simple: take the discrete wavelet transform of data consisting of a signal corrupted by noise; shrink or remove the wavelet coefficients to remove the noise; then invert the discrete wavelet transform to form an estimate of the true underlying curve. Various researchers have proposed increasingly sophisticated methods of doing this by using real-valued wavelets. Complex-valued wavelets exist but are rarely used. We propose two new complex-valued wavelet shrinkage techniques: one based on multiwavelet style shrinkage and the other using Bayesian methods. Extensive simulations show that our methods almost always give significantly more accurate estimates than methods based on real-valued wavelets. Further, our multiwavelet style shrinkage method is both simpler and dramatically faster than its competitors. To understand the excellent performance of this method we present a new risk bound on its hard thresholded coefficients.     

论新时期我国图书馆的服务功能与服务方式

新时期 ,新形势。随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的逐步建立 ,加入 WTO而融入世界经济发展大循环以及知识经济时代的到来 ,我国图书馆面临前所未有的机遇与挑战 ,要求图书馆要适应这种形势的变化 ,提供新的服务功能并采取新的服务方式。     

国有企业的特殊性与我国国有企业的布局定位

国有企业特殊性的真实内涵表现为,它有着特殊的所有者和所有者代表、特殊的社会目标、特殊的社会经济功能和特殊的产权组织运作机制。因此,越是在以社会目标为主的产业领域,国有企业就越有存在的价值。尽管国有企业的布局是一种趋向性和开放式的动态布局,但它所传递的信息表明国有企业会在特殊产业领域中以合适的方式继续存在并扮演重要角色。