SBR工艺特点及SBR脱氮除磷技术

介绍了序批式活性污泥法(Sequencing Batch Reactor,简称SBR)工艺的产生、发展和特点以及目前脱氮除磷研究的主要进展。     

Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

Towards Enhancement of the Economy of a Thermal Power Generating System through Prediction of Plant Efficiency

The plant ‘Heat Rate’ (HR) is a measure of overall efficiency of a thermal power generating system. It depends on a large number of factors, some of which are non-measurable, while data relating to others are seldom available and recorded. However, coal quality (expressed in terms of ‘effective heat value’ (EHV) as kcal/kg) transpires to be one of the important factors that influences HR values and data on EHV are available in any thermal power generating system. In the present work, we propose a prediction interval of the HR values on the basis of only EHV, keeping in mind that coal quality is one of the important (but not the only) factors that have a pronounced effect on the combustion process and hence on HR. The underlying theory borrows the idea of providing simultaneous confidence interval (SCI) to the coefficients of a p-th p(≥1) order autoregressive model (AR(p)). The theory has been substantiated with the help of real life data from a power utility (after suitable base and scale transformation of the data to maintain the confidentiality of the classified document). Scope for formulating strategies to enhance the economy of a thermal power generating system has also been explored.     

中国交通运输业发展的实证研究

采用协整和误差纠正模型与方法，对中国改革开放20多年来交通运输发展与一些相关影响因素之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明：旅客运输需求与国民收入、乘车费用之间，货物运输与国民经济、燃油价格之间分别存在长期稳定关系。研究认为：中国交通的发展应适当超前于国民经济的发展。同时，研究还发现：“旅游黄金周”的实施并不是促进中国旅客运输需求的显著影响因素。     

Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident

Summary.  We consider a Bayesian forecasting system to predict the dispersal of contamination on a large scale grid in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. The statistical model is built on a physical model for atmospheric dispersion and transport called MATCH. Our spatiotemporal model is a dynamic linear model where the state parameters are the (essentially, deterministic) predictions of MATCH; the distributions of these are updated sequentially in the light of monitoring data. One of the distinguishing features of the model is that the number of these parameters is very large (typically several hundreds of thousands) and we discuss practical issues arising in its implementation as a realtime model. Our procedures have been checked against a variational approach which is used widely in the atmospheric sciences. The results of the model are applied to test data from a tracer experiment.     

Temporal pattern in number of staff on sick leave: the effect of downsizing

Summary.  The pattern of absenteeism in the downsizing process of companies is a topic in focus in economics and social science. A general question is whether employees who are frequently absent are more likely to be selected to be laid off or in contrast whether employees to be dismissed are more likely to be absent for the remaining time of their working contract. We pursue an empirical and microeconomic investigation of these theses. We analyse longitudinal data that were collected in a German company over several years. We fit a semiparametric transition model based on a mixture Poisson distribution for the days of absenteeism per month. Prediction intervals are considered and the primary focus is on the period of downsizing. The data reveal clear evidence for the hypothesis that employees who are to be laid off are more frequently absent before leaving the company. Interestingly, though, no clear evidence is seen that employees being selected to leave the company are those with a bad absenteeism profile.     

英语中继语句法顺序探讨

中继语这一理论虽已广为语言学界所接受,并有学者对其动态规律进行了调查与研究,但到目前为止,目的十分明确的研究还只是刚起步。为了给汉语背景下第二语言习得理论和目前正在蓬勃展开的外语教学大纲、教材教法的革新提供依据,本文收集了大一、大二、硕士研究生三个自然班的英语作文,依据EA理论与IT理论对其进行了探索性的描述性研究,旨在从结构上揭示出大学生习得英语的顺序。     

大学生网络交往调查研究

网络交往一直深受大学生青睐。笔者就此对266名大学生进行了访谈研究和问卷调研。问卷结构包括:上网时点分布、网名使用情况、交友方式及其发展、E交友积极与消极观念四大因素。基于数理统计结果,提出大学生E交友的八大心理特征。     

司法现代化在我国农村的困境及出路

司法现代化在农村正遭遇着种种困境,这有其深刻的历史背景和现实基础。实现农村的司法现代化,一方面要对传统法律文化进行认真彻底的反思,肃清沿袭至今的消极影响;另一方面则应从制度上保障司法的公正性,在司法领域树立法律的权威。     

论政治运行的协调稳定机制

政治运行过程由政治决策、政治执行、政治协调、政治参与、政治监督等环节组成,可能出现良性、中性或恶性三种不同的结果状态。政治良性运行即政治的协调稳定发展。实现政治的协调稳定发展,社会必须为之提供必要的外部保障,但最根本的途径是要加强政治运行过程各环节的综合建设。